Northwest Independent School District Learn from Yesterday Understand

Northwest Independent School District Learn from Yesterday… Understand Today… Plan for Tomorrow 3 Q 13 Quarterly Report

Economic Conditions • • Texas added 1 new job for every 3 people from 2000 to 2013, the U. S. added 1 job for every 7 people, Texas outperformed the U. S. job creation rate by more than two-to-one. (Forbes) Texas has created more than 270 thousand non-farm jobs in the last 12 months. (Texas Comptroller’s Office ) The state's unemployment rate has been at or below the national rate for 81 consecutive months. (http: //www. thetexaseconomy. org/economic-outlook/ ) DFW is the 4 th largest MSA in the country behind only NYC, LA and Chicago (City Journal – Winter 2013) • • • Unemployment rates - Texas Labor Market Information (August 2013) - U. S. 7. 6% - Texas 6. 5% - DFW MSA 6. 2% - Tarrant County 5. 9% - Fort Worth 6. 2% Apartment vacancy rate is below 6% which has led to a record high average monthly rent of $861, a 3. 4% increase over last year. DFW builders put up 5, 861 new homes in the last quarter, a 27 percent increase year over year. (Dallas Business Journal) 2

National Economic Overview Top Job Growth Markets Ranked by Percent Change in Emp. – Sept. 2013 4. 0% 3. 5% 3. 0% 2. 5% Brownsville, TX, 3. 1% Laredo, TX, 3. 3% Dallas, TX, 3. 4% Salt Lake City, UT, 3. 4% Santa Cruz, CA, 3. 4% Ocala, FL, 3. 4% 0. 0% Houston, TX, 3. 5% 0. 5% Mc. Allen, TX, 3. 7% 1. 0% Austin, TX, 4. 0% 1. 5% Fort Worth-Arlington, TX, 3. 5% 2. 0% 7 out of the top 10 job growth cities are in Texas. Source: Forbes Magazine 3

National Economic Overview Top 5 MSAs Ranked by Annualized New Home Starts 2013 Source: Metrostudy 4

DFW Housing Market Starts and Closings 5

DFW Housing Market Multiple Listing Service – YTD SFD Activity & Inventory %Change YTD Sales 20% Average Price Median Price Listings DOM Monthly Supply 28% Sept-13 69, 256 226, 901 9% 174, 500 10% 23, 422 -14% 52 -25% Source: Texas A&M Real Estate 3. 2 Center for NTREIS 6

DFW New Home Ranking Report ISD Ranked by Annual Closings – 3 Q 13 Rank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 District Name Frisco ISD Northwest ISD Denton ISD Keller ISD Lewisville ISD Dallas ISD Prosper ISD Mc. Kinney ISD Eagle Mtn. - Saginaw ISD Little Elm ISD Mansfield ISD Allen ISD Rockwall ISD Crowley ISD Plano ISD Forney ISD Wylie ISD Fort Worth ISD Burleson ISD Carrollton-Farmers Branch ISD Anna ISD Midlothian ISD Garland ISD Waxahachie ISD HEB ISD Birdville ISD Weatherford ISD Aledo ISD Royse City ISD Melissa ISD Annual Starts 3, 008 1, 260 1, 234 813 946 892 918 714 725 635 618 606 555 374 372 441 344 347 391 295 348 342 299 271 292 198 234 278 226 169 Annual Closings 2, 534 1, 101 844 834 793 771 662 661 653 615 563 442 406 393 378 356 347 335 329 312 309 306 226 205 200 196 195 VDL 4, 072 1, 750 2, 330 1, 269 1, 598 2, 138 1, 494 1, 247 1, 603 807 757 966 1, 630 1, 897 828 1, 401 574 1, 069 727 408 376 1, 012 613 931 431 170 697 806 955 234 Future 9, 073 22, 174 14, 585 3, 218 2, 549 7, 329 15, 320 7, 225 20, 004 7, 031 5, 692 1, 373 8, 108 8, 229 1, 361 11, 477 5, 324 4, 638 3, 662 923 3, 680 14, 268 3, 141 9, 085 6, 146 376 604 15, 618 7, 271 5, 420 7

Foreclosures ISD Dallas ISD Fort Worth ISD Arlington ISD Garland ISD Mansfield ISD Mesquite ISD Keller ISD Crowley ISD Grand Prairie ISD Birdville ISD De Soto ISD Lewisville ISD Frisco ISD Plano ISD Duncanville ISD Eagle Mt-Saginaw ISD Denton ISD Richardson ISD Rockwall ISD Irving ISD Carrollton-Farmers Branch ISD Hurst-Euless-Bedford ISD Northwest ISD Mc. Kinney ISD Little Elm ISD Azle ISD Grapevine-Colleyville ISD Royse City ISD Carroll ISD Midlothian ISD 1 Q 13 479 181 157 175 118 163 100 77 100 70 76 110 86 101 68 64 71 86 41 59 58 32 54 62 33 25 17 20 4 30 2 Q 13 500 228 183 166 127 146 106 94 86 78 71 115 71 83 72 90 83 57 41 66 65 57 64 68 33 19 9 23 5 12 8 3 Q 13 312 133 112 101 85 77 60 58 57 56 56 55 55 43 54 45 45 40 38 37 33 31 30 21 16 14 12 6 1

New Housing Activity Northwest ISD Housing Activity 1, 000 Starts 900 Closings Inventory 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 Starts 1 Q 2 Q 3 Q 4 Q Total 2008 339 419 387 275 1, 420 2009 185 251 366 258 1, 060 • • • 2010 303 345 264 204 1, 116 2011 235 268 282 256 1, 041 2012 251 298 286 257 1, 092 2013 288 362 353 1, 003 Closings 1 Q 2 Q 3 Q 4 Q Total 2008 462 446 444 421 1, 773 2009 233 276 303 308 1, 120 2010 232 340 348 276 1, 196 2011 230 263 295 1, 018 3 Q 13 starts are up above 350 for the second straight quarter, YTD starts are up 20% over 2012 YTD. Closings are maintaining the pace of starts and will likely be over 1, 000 units for at least 7 straight years. Inventory is back up above 600 for the first time in more than 3 years. 3 Q 13 2 Q 13 1 Q 13 4 Q 12 3 Q 12 2 Q 12 1 Q 12 4 Q 11 3 Q 11 2 Q 11 1 Q 11 4 Q 10 3 Q 10 2 Q 10 1 Q 10 4 Q 09 3 Q 09 2 Q 09 1 Q 09 4 Q 08 3 Q 08 2 Q 08 1 Q 08 0 2012 218 331 333 258 1, 140 2013 226 318 300 844 9

Annual Closing Distribution 3 Q 13 Top 10 Subdivisions - 3 Q 13 (Ranked by Annual Closings) Rank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Subdivision Sendera Ranch (Thompson) Trophy Club/Highlands at (Beck) Harmon Ranch Tehama Ridge Briarwyck (Roanoke) Trophy Club/Highlands at (Lakeview) Willow Ridge Estates (Ft. Worth) Trophy Club/Turnberry Valley Ridge Ranches, The TOTALS Annual Starts Closings 149 120 105 101 106 88 98 86 93 77 70 67 64 67 54 45 37 42 63 35 839 728 10

Vacant Developed Lots 3 Q 13 Top 5 Subdivisions - 3 Q 13 (Ranked by remaining Vacant Developed Lots) Rank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Subdivision Sendera Ranch (Thompson) Fairway Ranch Valley Ridge Trophy Club/Highlands at (Beck) Highlands Glen Harmon Ranch Tehama Ridge Willow Ridge Estates (Ft. Worth) Trophy Club/Highlands at (Lakeview) Willow Springs Ranch TOTALS VDL 125 114 99 98 95 84 83 76 65 63 902 Future 3824 382 0 91 0 409 0 376 60 0 5, 142 11

Future Lots 3 Q 13 Top 10 Subdivisions - 3 Q 13 (Ranked by Future Inventory) Rank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Subdivision Tradition Sendera Ranch (Thompson) Sendera Ranch (Sendera Ranch) Bonds Ranch/Bonds Ranch (NWISD) Richmond Canyon Falls (Northlake) Trails of Fossil Creek Shale Creek Seventeen Lakes Elizabeth Creek Estates TOTALS VDL 0 125 45 0 0 0 52 33 60 0 315 12 Future 4517 3824 2802 1162 740 726 660 600 551 539 16, 121

Overall Housing Data By Elementary Attendance Zone Highest activity in the category Second highest activity in the category Third highest activity in the category Elementary Zone BECK CLARA LOVE COX GRANGER HASLET HATFIELD HUGHES JUSTIN LAKEVIEW NANCE PETERSON PRAIRIE VIEW ROANOKE SCHLUTER SENDERA RANCH SEVEN HILLS THOMPSON Grand Total Annual Starts 115 16 42 0 37 82 100 28 143 46 227 28 93 123 8 23 149 1, 260 Quarter Starts 37 2 12 0 6 18 20 9 41 20 67 15 31 47 1 6 21 353 Annual Closings 113 34 35 9 34 44 77 18 134 46 194 25 77 102 29 10 120 1, 101 Quarter Closings 27 3 7 1 9 19 26 3 39 4 71 1 16 29 3 5 37 300 Vacant Dev. Inventory Lots Future Lots 56 216 160 4 0 311 29 233 1, 202 0 0 0 13 78 1, 100 52 45 6, 078 40 130 0 15 153 365 63 110 237 24 81 1, 511 91 192 483 19 57 786 44 49 1, 216 65 136 1, 825 5 45 2, 802 14 100 274 66 125 3, 824 600 1, 750 22, 174 13

Enrollment History Year (Oct. ) 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 EE/PK 252 284 301 300 291 K 1, 227 1, 284 1, 383 1, 448 1, 557 1 st 1, 220 1, 297 1, 391 1, 465 1, 590 2 nd 1, 218 1, 303 1, 407 1, 448 1, 591 3 rd 1, 148 1, 282 1, 368 1, 466 1, 571 4 th 1, 127 1, 201 1, 331 1, 433 1, 607 5 th 1, 151 1, 219 1, 291 1, 402 1, 574 6 th 1, 058 1, 230 1, 317 1, 400 1, 398 7 th 1, 101 1, 122 1, 281 1, 375 1, 438 8 th 1, 044 1, 116 1, 190 1, 325 1, 419 9 th 1, 114 1, 219 1, 278 1, 344 1, 478 10 th 1, 013 1, 122 1, 210 1, 302 1, 284 11 th 821 925 1, 013 1, 153 1, 210 12 th 670 766 865 950 1, 128 Total 14, 164 15, 370 16, 626 17, 811 19, 136 Growth 1, 206 1, 256 1, 185 1, 325 % 8. 5% 8. 2% 7. 1% 7. 4% *Yellow box = largest grade per year *Green box = second largest grade per year 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 EE/PK 1. 13 1. 06 1. 00 0. 97 K 1. 05 1. 08 Roll-up Prev Cohort 3 -Year Cohort 300 300 1, 557 1, 674 1, 660 1 st 1. 06 1. 08 1. 06 1. 10 2 nd 1. 07 1. 08 1. 04 1. 09 3 rd 1. 05 1. 04 1. 08 4 th 1. 05 1. 04 1. 05 1. 10 5 th 1. 08 1. 07 1. 05 1. 10 6 th 1. 07 1. 08 1. 00 7 th 1. 06 1. 04 1. 03 8 th 1. 01 1. 06 1. 03 9 th 1. 17 1. 15 1. 13 1. 12 10 th 1. 01 0. 99 1. 02 0. 96 11 th 0. 91 0. 90 0. 95 0. 93 12 th 0. 93 0. 94 0. 98 1, 557 1, 590 1, 591 1, 571 1, 607 1, 574 1, 398 1, 438 1, 419 1, 478 1, 284 1, 210 19, 574 1, 710 1, 727 1, 726 1, 722 1, 765 1, 569 1, 436 1, 484 1, 583 1, 412 1, 193 1, 184 20, 485 1, 718 1, 702 1, 685 1, 666 1, 728 1, 659 1, 450 1, 499 1, 603 1, 462 1, 192 1, 150 20, 475 438 1, 349 1, 339 14

Ten Year Forecast By Grade Level Year (Oct. ) 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 EE/PK 252 284 301 300 291 291 291 K 1, 227 1, 284 1, 383 1, 448 1, 557 1, 661 1, 760 1, 856 1, 968 2, 096 2, 224 2, 359 2, 503 2, 655 2, 816 1 st 1, 220 1, 297 1, 391 1, 465 1, 590 1, 690 1, 794 1, 898 2, 012 2, 138 2, 269 2, 397 2, 546 2, 700 2, 864 2 nd 1, 218 1, 303 1, 407 1, 448 1, 591 1, 688 1, 789 1, 899 2, 013 2, 143 2, 268 2, 405 2, 542 2, 700 2, 860 3 rd 1, 148 1, 282 1, 368 1, 466 1, 571 1, 704 1, 787 1, 899 2, 017 2, 135 2, 264 2, 397 2, 545 2, 692 2, 859 4 th 1, 127 1, 201 1, 331 1, 433 1, 607 1, 666 1, 803 1, 899 2, 016 2, 152 2, 266 2, 413 2, 554 2, 715 2, 871 5 th 1, 151 1, 219 1, 291 1, 402 1, 574 1, 695 1, 756 1, 905 2, 008 2, 134 2, 281 2, 402 2, 560 2, 711 2, 883 6 th 1, 058 1, 230 1, 317 1, 400 1, 398 1, 599 1, 733 1, 781 1, 941 2, 045 2, 164 2, 319 2, 441 2, 602 2, 758 7 th 1, 101 1, 122 1, 281 1, 375 1, 438 1, 458 1, 648 1, 778 1, 834 1, 992 2, 093 2, 222 2, 379 2, 504 2, 670 8 th 1, 044 1, 116 1, 190 1, 325 1, 419 1, 500 1, 505 1, 691 1, 831 1, 886 2, 049 2, 152 2, 285 2, 448 2, 577 9 th 1, 114 1, 219 1, 278 1, 344 1, 478 1, 618 1, 705 1, 946 2, 082 2, 146 2, 334 2, 443 2, 593 2, 777 10 th 1, 013 1, 122 1, 210 1, 302 1, 284 1, 408 1, 578 1, 645 1, 643 1, 885 2, 012 2, 075 2, 259 2, 364 2, 509 11 th 821 925 1, 013 1, 153 1, 210 1, 197 1, 320 1, 476 1, 539 1, 538 1, 768 1, 888 1, 947 2, 121 2, 221 12 th 670 766 865 950 1, 128 1, 185 1, 177 1, 298 1, 455 1, 516 1, 514 1, 741 1, 853 1, 910 2, 081 Total 14, 164 15, 370 16, 626 17, 811 19, 136 20, 360 21, 649 23, 021 24, 514 26, 033 27, 609 29, 395 31, 148 33, 006 35, 037 Growth 1, 206 1, 256 1, 185 1, 325 1, 224 1, 290 1, 371 1, 493 1, 519 1, 575 1, 786 1, 753 1, 857 2, 031 % 8. 5% 8. 2% 7. 1% 7. 4% 6. 3% 6. 5% 6. 2% 6. 1% 6. 5% 6. 0% 6. 2% *Yellow box = largest grade per year *Green box = second largest grade per year 15

Ten Year Forecast By Elementary School Campus Elementary Schools Beck Elementary Clara Love Elementary Cox Elementary Granger Elementary Haslet Elementary Hatfield Elementary Hughes Elementary Justin Elementary Lakeview Elementary Nance Elementary Peterson Elementary Prairie View Elementary Roanoke Elementary Sendera Ranch Elementary Seven Hills Elementary Schluter Elementay Thompson Elementary TOTAL ELEMENTARY Elementary growth Current Projections 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 788 837 926 997 1, 068 1, 118 1, 168 1, 206 1, 255 1, 302 632 697 728 769 782 825 832 816 815 818 357 391 446 477 527 573 633 701 777 860 882 879 880 862 840 806 788 782 780 783 484 475 497 495 514 542 564 590 616 644 386 427 470 522 581 635 708 785 865 948 596 614 592 620 629 646 662 681 701 503 524 536 557 584 614 632 651 668 677 544 562 590 616 625 648 670 689 707 726 483 505 510 519 527 554 575 596 621 647 695 766 839 896 927 962 1004 1043 1086 1130 486 523 548 588 601 617 632 644 661 680 864 933 956 1017 1095 1186 1283 1394 1511 1638 605 668 759 832 969 1146 1289 1435 1579 1715 546 577 608 647 710 764 825 897 969 1048 451 496 545 621 689 775 876 986 1113 1255 481 520 552 614 659 694 740 788 838 893 9, 781 10, 395 10, 980 11, 647 12, 325 13, 089 13, 863 14, 664 15, 541 16, 464 819 614 586 666 678 764 773 801 877 922 2023/24 1, 349 821 954 789 672 1033 712 685 745 673 1176 699 1776 1862 1133 1414 951 17, 444 980 16

Ten Year Forecast By Middle School and High School Campus Current Projections Middle Schools 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 Chisholm Trail Middle School 883 912 984 1, 038 1, 128 1, 163 1, 260 1, 341 1, 438 1, 545 Gene Pike Middle School 769 775 791 795 886 928 981 1, 040 1, 136 1, 196 Medlin Middle School 976 1, 052 1, 120 1, 182 1, 217 1, 276 1, 351 1, 443 1, 526 1, 613 Tidwell Middle School 929 1, 038 1, 196 1, 375 1, 508 1, 619 1, 706 1, 749 1, 765 1, 829 Wilson Middle School 698 780 795 860 867 937 1, 008 1, 120 1, 240 1, 371 TOTAL MIDDLE SCHOOL 4, 255 4, 557 4, 886 5, 250 5, 606 5, 923 6, 306 6, 693 7, 105 7, 554 MIDDLE SCHOOL GROWTH 155 302 329 364 356 317 383 387 412 449 High Schools 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 Northwest High School 2, 716 2, 882 3, 093 3, 307 3, 469 3, 652 3, 824 4, 065 4, 273 4, 574 Byron Nelson High School 2, 260 2, 399 2, 563 2, 690 2, 987 3, 242 3, 489 3, 846 4, 102 4, 287 Steele Accelerated High School 90 90 90 Denton County JJAEP 3 6 6 6 6 6 Denton Creek 31 31 31 TOTAL HIGH SCHOOL 5, 100 5, 408 5, 783 6, 124 6, 583 7, 021 7, 440 8, 038 8, 502 8, 988 HIGH SCHOOL GROWTH 351 308 375 341 459 438 419 598 464 486 TOTAL 19, 136 20, 360 21, 649 23, 021 24, 514 26, 033 27, 609 29, 395 31, 148 33, 006 Growth 1, 325 1, 224 1, 290 1, 371 1, 493 1, 519 1, 575 1, 786 1, 753 1, 857 % Growth 7. 4% 6. 3% 6. 5% 6. 2% 6. 1% 6. 5% 6. 0% 2019/21 1, 661 1, 242 1, 690 1, 900 1, 512 8, 005 451 2019/21 4, 934 4, 526 90 6 31 9, 587 599 35, 036 2, 030 6. 2% 17

Summary • 2013 could see over 1, 300 new homes. • District has approximately 1, 750 VDL, only a 18 month supply of lots • Peterson, Thompson and Lakeview have all had over 140 starts in the last 12 months. • Northwest ISD can expect an increase of approximately 6, 247 students during the next 5 years. • 2017/18 enrollment projection 23, 927 and will likely exceed 25, 000 in the following year. 18