North East England Chamber of Commerce Paul Carbert

North East England Chamber of Commerce Paul Carbert Policy Adviser

The Headlines Scores largely unchanged from Q 1 Most indicators down from last year Concerns over cashflow and investment Brexit and staff shortages worrying firms

Key indicators 40 30 20 10 Q 1 - 19 18 3 Q 18 1 Q 17 3 Q Q 1 - 17 16 Q 3 - 16 1 Q 15 3 Q 15 1 Q 14 3 Q 14 1 Q 13 3 Q 13 1 Q Q 3 - 12 12 1 Q 3 Q Q 1 - 11 11 10 3 Q 10 1 Q Q 3 - 09 0 -10 -20 Domestic sales Export sales Current Workforce Plant investment Training investment Trend

Change Q 2 2018 - Q 2 2019 8 6 4 2 0 Domestic sales -2 -4 -6 -8 Export sales Workforce Plant investment Training investment

Cashflow Manufacturing -8. 7% Overall +0. 9% Services +2. 1%

Skills supply – demographics • 63% of population is working age compared to 62% across England excluding London ─ Larger proportion of population aged 50 -64 and 65+ ─ Lower proportion aged 0 -15 and 25 -49 • Population projected to grow by 2. 1% between 2017 and 2027 ─ By 2027, there will be 32, 000 fewer individuals of working age than in 2017 in North East LEP area

Skills provision – job-related training • In 2017, 45% of North East LEP area businesses had a training plan in place and 35% had a budget for training (similar rates to England excluding London – 46% and 35%) • 63% had funded or arranged training for their employees in the last 12 months (a slightly smaller proportion than England excluding London, 66%)

Future Skills Policy • Apprenticeship reform – consultation? • Comprehensive Spending Review • Brexit • Shared Prosperity Fund • T Levels • Ministerial Reshuffle • National Retraining Scheme • Migration policy post-Brexit • Devolution • Augar Review • General Election

Paul. Carbert@neechamber. co. uk @NEEChamber. Paul