NOAAs National Weather Service Colorado Basin River Forecast

NOAA’s National Weather Service Colorado Basin River Forecast Center Summary: Drought, Forecasts, and Energy in the Colorado River W. Paul Miller Senior Hydrologist March, 2014 NOAA’s National Weather Service

Summary NOAA convened a workshop in response to drought conditions within the Colorado River Basin at the CBRFC on February 27 th. The CBRFC partnered with NIDIS to develop the agenda and coordinate efforts with leading stakeholders in the region. Draft recommendations from the meeting are currently being finalized, but focus primarily on CBRFC and Reclamation collaboration to identify sources of uncertainty.

Who Attended • Major municipal water • Bureau of users in attendance: Reclamation • MWD of Southern • Colorado River California Commission • CAP • CBRFC and NIDIS • SNWA representatives • Denver Water • Universities • Salt Lake City Public Utilities • Colorado River District • University of Arizona • Colorado Mesa University

Major Topics Discussed • Current use of forecasts in reservoir operations. • Current state of the region • • • NIDIS investments Drought mitigation efforts State of the Climate Science • Advances in Long Term Decision Support to Address Drought Impacts

Recommendations • NOAA and USBR should collaborate to identify sources of uncertainty and error in forecasting and modeling efforts • Increase frequency of water year updates • Incorporate climate change information • Increase forecast lead time • Provide earlier projections of seasonal streamflow • Improve communication and educational efforts • Other efforts to improve forecast skill

Next steps NOAA and Reclamation will meet to scope out the path forward on collaborative efforts and report on them at future Basin States Technical Committee Meetings. Kevin/Paul will be reaching out to Reclamation to form this group Current CBRFC practices will be examined to see how we can best meet the recommendations of this group. Some efforts are already underway. Draft report available soon!