NOAAS NATIONAL CENTERS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION GLOBAL CLIMATE
NOAA’S NATIONAL CENTERS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION GLOBAL CLIMATE INDICATORS Jessica Blunden October 13, 2015
Recent Greenhouse Gas Trends 2 Major greenhouse gases reach new record high concentrations in the atmosphere every year! 397. 2 ppm Current CO 2 concentration is unprecedented.
Global Temperature and Carbon Dioxide Relationship
Temperature Change by Decade
Global Surface Temperature Records Continue 5 § § January–August 2015 warmest such period in 136 -year period. Surpasses previous record by 0. 16ºF. February, March, May, June, July, August all record warm. Strong El Niño and global warming contributing to records.
Extreme Warm Days are Increasing Extreme Cold Night are Decreasing 6 • • Europe record warm for 2014, including close to two dozen individual countries. Many Asian countries among 10 warmest. Australia 3 rd warmest for 2014. Mexico record warm for 2014 but eastern North America colder than average.
The Arctic is Warming 7 Mendenhall Glacier 2015 Source: State of the Climate in 2013 Kearney Near Willow, River Alaska Fire June 2015
Permafrost is Thawing IPCC Projection: By the end of the century, 10% to 50% of Arctic tundra could be overtaken by evergreen shrubs and trees Arctic tundra Tundra Swan 8 Reindeer Evergreen forest, northern North America Caribou Thawing permafrost is expected to impact migration routes and patterns in birds, reindeer, and caribou.
Arctic Sea Ice is Melting Average Monthly Arctic Ice Extent September 1979 -2015 September 2015 4 th lowest sea ice extent on record, so… The 9 smallest Arctic sea ice extents have all occurred in the past 9 years. September sea ice is decreasing at an average rate of -13. 9% per decade. September 17, 11, 2015 2014
Habitats Are Impacted 10 Designated as an Endangered Species in December 2012 Ringed seal As sea ice shrinks through this century, more than 2/3 of the area with sufficient snow cover for ringed seals to reproduce also will disappear, challenging their survival. Source: Hezel et al, Geophysical Research letters, 2012 10
Ice Loss from the Two Polar Ice Sheets Greenland
Is Ice Loss from Greenland Contributing to a Record Cold Spot? Some scientists believe there is a slowdown in the Atlantic conveyor belt.
Snow Cover Over Land is Melting More and Earlier 13 Northern Hemisphere June snow extent: declining at a rate of -19. 9% per decade In 2014 snow melt occurred 20– 30 days earlier than the 1998– 2010 average.
Glaciers Continue to Melt Across the Globe Lemon Creek Glacier, Alaska September 2014 Courtesy of ©Chris Mc. Neil 14 Preliminary data suggests that 2014 was the 31 st consecutive year of glacier ice loss.
Departure from average (°F) Observed Ocean Warming 2015 will probably be the warmest year on record for the Global Oceans.
Habitats in the Oceans are Projected to Shift 16 Losers Winners Sooty Shearwater Tuna Blue Shark Blackfoot Albatross Blue Whale Loggerhead Turtle Source: NOAA study published in Nature climate change, Sept 2012 16
17 Worldwide Coral Stress is Happening Now American Samoa NOAA: Corals around the world are undergoing stress and are in danger of dying in the third global coral bleaching event ever recorded, December 2014 February 2015
18 Worldwide Coral Stress is Happening Now American Samoa NOAA: Corals around the world are undergoing stress and are in danger of dying in the third global coral bleaching event ever recorded, December 2014 February 2015
Sea Level is Rising 19 Sea level rise since 1993 Global Mean Sea Level Where sea level is rising and falling North America Eurasia Pacific Ocean Increasing at an average rate of 1. 3 inches per decade Australia
Habitats Will be Impacted Diamondback Terrapin Estuarine beach and bulkhead, Arthur Kills, Woodbridge Township, New Jersey (Photo credit: James G. Titus) Diamondback terrapin and horseshoe crabs are at risk of losing beaches where eggs are buried. Horseshoe Crabs Source: Coastal Sensitivity to Sea Level Rise: a focus on the mid-Atlantic Region, 2009 20
More CO² in Oceans = More Acidic Waters • Ocean p. H has decreased by about 0. 1 since start of Industrial Revolution. • p. H is expected to decrease by another 0. 2 to 0. 3 by the end of the century. • This decrease is 3 times greater and 100 times faster than during transitions from glacial to interglacial periods.
22 Coral Reefs are Already Impacted; Projected to be Impacted Even More Already past In ~15 years Increased ocean acidification decreases suitable coral habitat. In ~35 years 22
NOAA’S NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA CENTER THANK YOU Questions?
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