NOAA Ocean Prediction Center Joe Sienkiewicz Science and

NOAA Forecast Responsibility High Seas Wind Warning Categories GALE – 34 -47 knots Force

OPC OFFSHORE responsibility Forecast Focus Winds Waves Cyclone Activity Intensity Track Visibility T-storm activity

Forecast Products • Deterministic Offshore - Zone format to 5 days High Seas Text

Ensemble Tools – Spaghetti Diagrams • Forecaster derived spaghetti NCEP Ensemble Workshop, Laurel, MD

Ensemble Tools – Probability of GALE Winds Probability 25 KTS 34 KTS 50 KTS

Ensemble Tools – Probability of Winds 25 KT Probability 25 KTS 34 KTS 50

Ensemble Tools – Low centers NCEP Ensemble Workshop, Laurel, MD Oct 31 - Nov

Ensemble Tools – Cyclone Tracks Marchok Tracker PSN Intensity Max Winds Radii of WInds

Ensemble Tools – Cyclone Tracks • Cyclone Tracker – Not optimized – Cannot focus

Ensemble Tools – Wave Ensemble • Wave ensembles – Not in N-AWIPS NCEP Ensemble

Ensemble Tools – Winds Quik. SCAT 10 Dec 2005 0956 UTC ECMWF 10 m

OPC Model Blender NCEP Ensemble Workshop, Laurel, MD Oct 31 - Nov 2, 2006

50% GFS – f 072 Blender Blended - f 072 PMSL Parameters PMSL, 10

Summary • Products – deterministic • Integrating Ensembles into operations (SLOWLY) • Display capabilities

Slides: 16

Download presentation

NOAA Ocean Prediction Center Joe Sienkiewicz Science and Operations Officer NCEP Ensemble Workshop, Laurel, MD Oct 31 - Nov 2, 2006

NOAA Forecast Responsibility High Seas Wind Warning Categories GALE – 34 -47 knots Force 8/9 STORM – 48 -63 knots Force 10/11 NCEP Ensemble Workshop, HURRICANE FORCE - >64 knots Force 12 Laurel, MD Oct 31 - Nov 2, 2006

OPC OFFSHORE responsibility Forecast Focus Winds Waves Cyclone Activity Intensity Track Visibility T-storm activity

Forecast Products • Deterministic Offshore - Zone format to 5 days High Seas Text – Cyclone following – 2 days Graphical – 5 days Cyclone activity Winds Waves NCEP Ensemble Workshop, Laurel, MD Oct 31 - Nov 2, 2006

Ensemble Tools – Spaghetti Diagrams • Forecaster derived spaghetti NCEP Ensemble Workshop, Laurel, MD Oct 31 - Nov 2, 2006 500 hghts 850 hghts SLP Isotachs

Ensemble Tools – Probability of GALE Winds Probability 25 KTS 34 KTS 50 KTS • Low displays NCEP Ensemble Workshop, Laurel, MD Oct 31 - Nov 2, 2006

Ensemble Tools – Probability of Winds 25 KT Probability 25 KTS 34 KTS 50 KTS • Low displays NCEP Ensemble Workshop, Laurel, MD Oct 31 - Nov 2, 2006

Ensemble Tools – Low centers NCEP Ensemble Workshop, Laurel, MD Oct 31 - Nov 2, 2006

Ensemble Tools – Cyclone Tracks Marchok Tracker PSN Intensity Max Winds Radii of WInds NCEP Ensemble Workshop, Laurel, MD Oct 31 - Nov 2, 2006

Ensemble Tools – Cyclone Tracks • Cyclone Tracker – Not optimized – Cannot focus on single cyclones – Cannot easily get the information needed, quickly – Tracker excellent, data base complete NCEP Ensemble Workshop, Laurel, MD Oct 31 - Nov 2, 2006

Ensemble Tools – Wave Ensemble • Wave ensembles – Not in N-AWIPS NCEP Ensemble Workshop, Laurel, MD Oct 31 - Nov 2, 2006

Ensemble Tools – Winds Quik. SCAT 10 Dec 2005 0956 UTC ECMWF 10 m winds 10 Dec 2005 1200 UTC GFS 30 m winds 10 Dec 2005 1200 UTC NCEP Ensemble Workshop, Laurel, MD Oct 31 - Nov 2, 2006

OPC Model Blender NCEP Ensemble Workshop, Laurel, MD Oct 31 - Nov 2, 2006

50% GFS – f 072 Blender Blended - f 072 PMSL Parameters PMSL, 10 m wind, 2 m T, 2 m RH, Freezing spray, SST, 500 mb hght, wind NCEP Ensemble Workshop, 50% ECMWF – f 084 Laurel, MD Oct 31 - Nov 2, 2006

Summary • Products – deterministic • Integrating Ensembles into operations (SLOWLY) • Display capabilities not optimized – Cyclone track and intensity – Wind information – Waves (EGOWAFS) (not in NAWIPS) • Multi-model ensembles – Winds – not equal for warning purposes – (need bias corrected winds) • Blender – Gives forecasters ability to make user defined ensembles – Can trend weights NCEP Ensemble Workshop, Laurel, MD Oct 31 - Nov 2, 2006