NIES IGES Research Project on Beyond 2012 Briefing

NIES / IGES Research Project on Beyond 2012: Briefing COP 9　Side event December 3, 2003 Yasuko Kameyama National Institute for Environmental Studies, Japan

1．About NIES/IGES Project • Started in April 2003. A three-year project that will finish in March 2005. • The research fund, 23 million yen (about US$200 thousand) each year, is provided by Global Environment Research Fund of the Ministry of the Environment. • By the end of the three years, the project is expected to finalize a report on options for an appropriate international emission limitation regime after the year 2012.

2．Purpose • The Kyoto Protocol only assigns commitments up to the year 2012, and negotiation on actions beyond 2012 (2 nd commitment period)is to start by 2005. • This research project aims to assist policy makers in tackling this “beyond 2012” problem by identifying key issues and proposing options for an effective, equitable, cost-effective, and agreeable regime. • For this purpose, we identify INCENTIVES and disincentives for major players to participate in and comply with a global climate regime, thereby developing the institutional design of a participationand compliance-compatible regime.

(3) Options for a climate regime beyond 2012 (2) Institutions and measures to gain incentives - incentives/disincentives of the KP - Instruments to stimulate incentives in other MEAs and non-MEA treaties - PAM as a kind of economic incentive if countries could use tariffs? - Kyoto mechanisms as incentives (4) Evaluation - Environmental effectiveness - Equity - Economic efficiency - Institutional efficiency and effectiveness(shif t from the current regime) (1) Determination of incentives and disincentives - What are the incentives for countries to create and participate in a climate change regime? - What are the incentives for domestic stakeholders to support their government in creating and participating in a climate change regime? - “Leadership” or “precautionary principle” affect decision making? Fig. 1 Project outline

Members Core Members NIES: Yasuko Kameyama, Izumi Kubota IGES: Yosuke Fukushima, Yasushi Ninomiya, Ancha Srinivasan, Kentaro Tamura, Rie Watanabe Utsunomiya University: Wakana Takahashi Tokyo Institute of Technology: Norichika Kanie NIES/IGES : Shuzo Nishioka Other Collaborators Hidenori Niizawa, Kobe University of Commerce Yukari Takamura, University of Shizuoka Masahiro Amano, Waseda University The AIM (Asia-Pacific Integrated Model) team, NIES

Website NIES http: //www. nies. go. jp/social/post 2012/ IGES http: //www. iges. or. jp/en/cp/bkp. html