NextGeneration CMTS Solutions Timing Roadmaps Tom Cloonan Ph

Next-Generation CMTS Solutions: Timing & Roadmaps Tom Cloonan, Ph. D. CTO - Broadband Division ARRIS International June 2006

A Few Quick Notes ▪ The roadmaps described in this talk are still evolving & subject to change. ▪ All CMTS & CM vendors participating in the DOCSIS® 3. 0 standardization process are bound by the Cable. Labs® NDA agreement & are not permitted to discuss details of the DOCSIS 3. 0 and DOCSIS 2. 0 b features. 2

Agenda ▪ Introduction ▪ M-CMTS & DOCSIS 3. 0 History ▪ Predictions: The Near Future (2006 -2009) ▪ Predictions: The Distant Future (2010 -2011) ▪ Conclusions 3

Introduction ▪ MSOs are planning for many changes in the future ▪ Let’s consider a few quick examples… 4

Example of Subscriber Bandwidth Changes Proposed by one MSO Avg Bandwidth per subscriber (kbps) 1000 1 Mbps 100 kbps 30 kbps 10 1 2005 5 2006 2007 2008 2009

Example of CMTS Bandwidth Changes Proposed by one MSO Shift from MPEG-delivered Video to DOCSIS-delivered IPTV Broadcast Analog Video (45 programs = 45 channels) Broadcast Digital SDTV (200 programs = 20 QAMs = 1 Gbps) & Broadcast Digital HDTV (40 programs = 20 QAMs = 1 Gbps) IP Metro Ntwk IP Router Vo. D Server C 4 M-CMTS Narrowcast Vo. D & IPTV (13. 6 Gbps / 340 QAM) HSD & Voice (1 Gbps / 32 QAM & 128 Up Channels) 6 DOCSIS MAC US RCV Gigabit Ethernet Switching D 5 Edge QAM RF RF 20 K HHP Hub

Example of DOCSIS Upstream: Downstream Ratio Changes Proposed by one MSO Total # Ports for 4 -Fiber Node Service Group 20 18 16 14 12 12 10 Begin Channel Bonding 8 8 6 4 4 2 1 0 2005 7 Total # Upstreams/SG 4 2 2006 8 4 4 Total # Downstreams/SG 2007 4 2008 2009

Next-Generation Architectures Must Deliver Key Improvements to Permit MSOs to Evolve their HFC Networks Today Next Generation Network Architecture DOCSIS 2. 0 M-CMTS and DOCSIS 3. 0 Fixed upstream / downstream ratio Flexible upstream / downstream ratio • Capital invested in unused capacity as US/DS ratio changes Standard bandwidth • Single channel limits the services that can be offered IPv 4 – Address Management • Complicated management due to limited available IP addresses 8 • Align investment with revenue opportunity Channel Bonded bandwidth • Channel bonding increases usable bandwidth enabling new services IPv 6 – Address Management • Simpler network operations and more IP devices per subscriber

Agenda ▪ Introduction ▪ M-CMTS & DOCSIS 3. 0 History ▪ Predictions: The Near Future (2006 -2009) ▪ Predictions: The Distant Future (2010 -2011) ▪ Conclusions 9

MSOs will be able to select from multiple DOCSIS architectures in the near future ▪ Integrated CMTS (I-CMTS) − − Architecture has all required CMTS modules in one chassis CMTS has the ability to grow downstreams separately from upstreams Permits support for full redundancy within a single chassis Offers simpler management (MSO manages only one network element) ▪ Modular CMTS (M-CMTS) − − Architecture separates the downstream PHY (Edge. QAM) from the MAC and upstream PHY CMTS has the ability to grow downstreams separately from upstreams Allows network elements from multiple vendors if desired Permits sharing of Edge. QAMs for Vo. IP, Video, & Data services ▪ Some CMTS vendors will offer products supporting both types of architectures ▪ MSOs will be able to select the architecture that best suits their needs 10

HFC Network Topology based on the Integrated CMTS (I-CMTS) Architecture Edge Resource Mgr SG #1 Reverse Path CM I-CMTS MTA STB SG #1 Forward Path SG #2 Reverse Path Vo. D Server Switched Digital BCAST Video Mgr 11 D 5 EQAM Router/ Switch D 5 EQAM CM MTA STB SG #2 Forward Path

HFC Network Topology based on the Modular CMTS (M-CMTS) Architecture Edge Resource Mgr SG #1 Reverse Path CM M-CMTS D 5 EQAM Vo. D Server Switched Digital BCAST Video Mgr 12 D 5 EQAM Router/ Switch D 5 EQAM MTA STB SG #1 Forward Path SG #2 Reverse Path CM MTA STB SG #2 Forward Path

MSOs will also be able to select from many features in the DOCSIS 3. 0 spec ▪ Increased downstream & upstream bandwidth per subscriber via Channel Bonding ▪ Larger IP address spaces with IPv 6 ▪ Improved multicast support ▪ DOCSIS theft of service security ▪ More VPN support ▪ Simpler and higher-capacity management systems 13

Channel Bonding: The Primary Driver for DOCSIS 3. 0 ▪ Competition from DSL & FTTH is pushing MSOs to offer more bandwidth & capacity ▪ Business services & other planned service offerings (ex: fast video downloads, IPTV, etc. ) are requiring MSOs to offer more bandwidth & capacity to more subs Channel Bonding - Pre-Standard (ex: ARRIS Flex. Path™) - DOCSIS 2. 0 b - DOCSIS 3. 0 14

“Packet-based” Channel Bonding Technology was adopted by the Cable. Labs DOCSIS 3. 0 Standard ▪ ARRIS Flex. Path used Packet-based Channel Bonding ▪ ARRIS Flex. Path was the first available Pre. Standard Channel Bonding System ▪ SW upgrade to CMTS ▪ New CM design ▪ Permits 4 Downstreams & 4 Upstreams to each CM (160 Mbps down & 120 Mbps up) 15 C 4 CMTS Standard DOCSIS Channel CM

ARRIS Flex. Path Packet-based Channel Bonding Demo & Trial History 2004 2 Q 04 2005 3 Q 04 4 Q 04 1 Q 05 2 Q 05 3 Q 05 2006 4 Q 05 1 Q 06 2 Q 06 3 Q 06 2007 4 Q 06 1 Q 07 2 Q 07 General Availability (August 2006) Lab & Field Trials of ARRIS Flex. Path (ex: NTL in England) World’s 2 nd Channel Bonding Demo (ARRIS Flex. Path at SCTE) World’s 1 st Channel Bonding Demo (ARRIS Flex. Path at NCTA) This road 16 map is subject to change.

Agenda ▪ Introduction ▪ M-CMTS & DOCSIS 3. 0 History ▪ Predictions: The Near Future (2006 -2009) ▪ Predictions: The Distant Future (2010 -2011) ▪ Conclusions 17

Next-Gen CMTS Evolutionary Paths Fixed U: D Ratio DOCSIS 2. 0 Integrated CMTS Modular CMTS (I-CMTS) (M-CMTS) DOCSIS 3. 0 18 Flexible U: D Ratio

Next-Gen CMTS Evolutionary Paths Fixed U: D Ratio “DOCSIS 2. 0 b” is defining a subset of DOCSIS 3. 0 features for an Accelerated Test Program Integrated CMTS Modular CMTS (I-CMTS) (M-CMTS) DOCSIS 3. 0 19 DOCSIS 2. 0 Flexible U: D Ratio

Next-Gen CMTS Evolutionary Paths Fixed U: D Ratio DOCSIS 2. 0 Fixed Ratio Integrated 2. 0 CMTS Modular CMTS Integrated CMTS (I-CMTS) Flexible Ratio Integrated 3. 0/2. 0 b I-CMTS DOCSIS 3. 0/2. 0 b 20 Flexible Ratio 3. 0/2. 0 b M-CMTS Flexible U: D Ratio (M-CMTS)

When will these new CMTS Architectures be Deployable? Before we answer, let’s do a quick review of past DOCSIS Spec Releases & 1 st Successful Cert Waves DOCSIS 3. 0 Spec Issued ? ? ? M-CMTS Specs Issued ? ? ? DOCSIS 2. 0 Spec Issued 2 nd Qualified 2. 0 CMTS (ARRIS) 1 st Qualified 2. 0 CMTS (Terayon wrote most of spec) DOCSIS 1. 1 Spec Issued 1 st Qualified 1. 1 CMTS (ARRIS) DOCSIS 1. 0 Spec Issued 1 st Qualified 1. 0 CMTS 1997 21 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Industry Predictions: The Near Future 2006 1 Q 06 Pre-Standard (e. g. Flex. Path) M-CMTS 2 Q 06 2007 3 Q 06 4 Q 06 1 Q 07 Lab/Field Trials (since 1 Q 05) 2 Q 07 4 Q 07 1 Q 08 Deployments Interops (2. 0/2. 0 b) DOCSIS 2. 0 b Interops Lab/Field Trials DOCSIS 3. 0 Interops 22 3 Q 07 2008 This does not reflect ARRIS product plans- It is a representation of general industry milestones by all Vendors. Lab/Field Trials Deployments Lab/Field Trials 2 Q 08

Industry Predictions: The Near Future 2008 1 Q 08 Pre-Standard (e. g. Flex. Path) 2 Q 08 DOCSIS 3. 0 23 4 Q 08 1 Q 09 2 Q 09 3 Q 09 Deployments M-CMTS Lab/Field Trials DOCSIS 2. 0 b 3 Q 08 2009 Deployments Lab/Field Trials Deployments This does not reflect ARRIS product plans- It is a representation of general industry milestones by all Vendors. 2010 4 Q 09 1 Q 10 2 Q 10

Agenda ▪ Introduction ▪ M-CMTS & DOCSIS 3. 0 History ▪ Predictions: The Near Future (2006 -2009) ▪ Predictions: The Distant Future (2010 -2011) ▪ Conclusions 24

Distant Future Predictions: The Subscriber Base ▪ Typical 100 K HHP Headends will require their CMTSs to support > 100 K CM devices due to the inclusion of CMs, MTAs, and many DOCSIS-enabled STBs per household ▪ Subscriber PCs & Network Servers will need to be reconfigured with larger buffers & Gig. E feeds to match the new high-speed Internet bandwidths offered by Channel Bonding ▪ MSOs will find that offering high availability & Qo. S in both I-CMTS & M-CMTS deployments will permit them to differentiate their converged services in a very 25 competitive market

Distant Future Predictions: The Applications ▪ MSOs will begin to offer more local caching of content (video and data) to minimize Round Trip Times (RTTs) and increase TCP download speeds ▪ IPTV with large content libraries from local caches will begin to be heavily offered by MSOs over Channel Bonding systems ▪ MSOs will begin finding new applications that make extensive use of Channel Bonding… − ex: MSO-managed Wi. Max/Wi. Bro networks & Business Services may consume very high backhaul bandwidths w/ up to 500 Mbps feeds (~12 bonded downstream channels) 26

Agenda ▪ Introduction ▪ M-CMTS & DOCSIS 3. 0 History ▪ Predictions: The Near Future (2006 -2009) ▪ Predictions: The Distant Future (2010 -2011) ▪ Conclusions 27

Do MSOs need a Next Gen CMTS? ▪ Flexible bandwidth allocation needed to reduce CAPEX/sub − Discrete deployment of Upstream and Downstream capacity allows new cost-effective services like IPTV ▪ Competition from DSL and FTTX is driving Channel Bonding ▪ IPv 6 is needed to resolve IP address exhaust for large MSO or interconnected IP networks ▪ Triple play is moving to converged IPTV, Vo. IP, and HSD − This requires more bandwidth, security, and IP addresses to facilitate this shift to everything IP, everywhere Answer: Yes… In the form of DOCSIS® 3. 0 and Modular. CMTS (M-CMTS) and I-CMTS 28

Conclusions ▪ DOCSIS 3. 0, I-CMTS, and M-CMTS will all be available in the near future ▪ Successful deployment will require: − − Detailed traffic engineering work to design Channel Bonded networks Careful Interops and Lab/Field Trials to ensure product interoperability Powerful diagnostic tools to assist in trouble-shooting CMTS vendors with Channel Bonding deployment experience ▪ With DOCSIS 3. 0 & I-CMTS & M-CMTS, the cable industry is creating a long-term infrastructure that will dominate the edge for years to come 29

Thank You! Contact Information: tom. cloonan@arrisi. com 30