Next Generation of Aviation Professionals NGAP 8 th

Next Generation of Aviation Professionals (NGAP) 8 th NGAP Programme Meeting Montreal, Canada 5 December 2016

Overview • Status of ICAO Activities • ICAO Forecast Document • NGAP Work Programme

NGAP Timeline

NGAP Timeline

NGAP Timeline

NGAP Today • Objective to support outreach for attracting youth by promoting career opportunities, from elementary school to university, into aviation education and professions, at global, regional and national levels – e. g. STEM • Resourced by volunteers from partner Int. Orgs, States, service providers, industry, academia, and training institutions • Currently managed by ANB – expanding to all ICAO Strategic Objectives and involving ROs • 2 working groups - Implementation and Outreach

ICAO NGAP Activities 2016 • Roll-out of guidance material for competency-based training for ATCOs and ATSEPs – Two draft training manuals published – Three implementation workshops held (HQ, Mexico, Lima) • State Letters • Promotion of NGAP Activities – Participation at SECA at WATS – Speeches/presentations in Canada, Korea, Mexico, Panama and Sri Lanka – SG speech on NGAP in Korea – SG message in ICAO Training Report

th 39 ICAO Assembly • Programme supported and resolution adopted – Urges Member States to work with the aviation community to identify long-term human resources needs and establish strategies to attract, educate and retain in the sector aviation professionals, considering gender equality – Encourages Member States to promote best practices that focus on meeting the needs and values of the next generation of aviation professionals to enable employee productivity, performance, recruitment, retention, and safety; – Encourages Member States, international and regional organizations, academia and industry to support the NGAP Programme, as one of the integral elements of capacity building, by providing technical expertise and guidance, and resources (human, financial and data) to help achieve the Programme’s objectives.

ICAO Forecast Document

• ICAO Long term traffic forecasts • 39 th Assembly Resolution regarding the update of personnel forecasts 60% of total traffic • Aviation Data and Analysis Panel in March 2017 63% of total traffic *Scheduled Services **Compound Average Annual Growth Rate 10

ICAO Long term traffic forecasts Result of the work Multi Disciplinary Working Group on Long Term Forecasts (MDWG-LTF) MDWG-LFT comprising of Members from CAEP, Member States and Industry Endorsed by the 39 th Session of the Assembly 60% of total traffic 63% of total traffic *Scheduled Services **Compound Average Annual Growth Rate 11

Long-term air traffic forecasts Forecasts Historical 12, 000 6. 0% CAGR** Scheduled international passenger traffic 4. 2% CAGR** Projected Top 10 Routes 2040 10, 000 Revenue Passenger Kilomtres* (billions) Rank 2040 2015 8, 000 60% of total traffic 4, 000 63% of total traffic 2, 000 0 1995 2000 *Scheduled Services 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 **Compound Average Annual Growth Rate 2030 2035 2040 12 Long Term Forecast Route Group Share 2040 2015 1 4 Central Southwest Asia - Pacific South East Asia 11. 9% 5. 4% 2 1 Intra Europe 11. 5% 15. 8 % 3 8 Central Southwest Asia - Middle East 11. 3% 3. 9% 4 2 Europe - North America 9. 0% 11. 8 % 5 3 Central Southwest Asia - Europe 7. 3% 5. 8% 6 5 Intra Pacific South East Asia 6. 1% 4. 5% 7 7 5. 9% 4. 1% 8 18 4. 6% 1. 9% 9 6 Europe - Middle East 3. 6% 4. 5% 10 9 Europe - Pacific South East Asia 3. 5% 3. 6% Central Southwest Asia - North America Central Southwest Asia- North Asia

Historical 600 Forecasts Long-term air traffic forecasts Scheduled international freight traffic 4. 2% CAGR** 4. 5% CAGR** Freight Tonnes Kilometres* (bilions) 500 400 Projected International Freight Traffic Breakdown by AOC 2040 300 North Americ Middle a, 13% East, 23% 200 100 0 1995 Africa 2000 2005 Asia and Pacific *Scheduled Services 2010 Europe 2015 2020 Latin America/Caribbean **Compound Average Annual Growth Rate 2025 2030 Middle East 13 2035 North America 2040 Latin Americ a/Carib Europe, bean, 17% 2% Africa, 1% Asia and Pacific; 42%

39 th Assembly Outcome regarding Personnel Forecasts Report on the Development of a single set of harmonized long-term forecasts (A 39 -WP/64) Update global and regional twenty year forecasts for pilots, maintenance personnel and air traffic controllers (DOC 9956) in April 2018 to meet the needs of the ICAO Next Generation Aviation Professional (NGAP) programme. 60% of total traffic 14

Aviation Data and Analysis Panel will meet in March 2017 • Experts from 35 States and 9 International Organizations • Panel will establish a working group to work on a new set of personnel forecasts (by gender) Traffic forecasts Endorsed by A 39 Fleet forecasts CAEP 60% of total traffic New Personnel Forecasts 15 ICAO Statistical Form N

NGAP Work Plan (2016 – 2018) • • • Annual meeting with NGAP community Organize quarterly telcons with partners Implementation Workshops for roll-out of ATCO and ATSEP CBT provisions – 2017 Outreach communication media/products including: – NGAP website; – NGAP Newsletter; – NGAP article in ICAO Training Report; – Collaboration with Halldale Media for Student Education and Careers in Aviation (SECA) – Presentations at regional conferences/events around the world; and – Sharing of NGAP best practices; Planned update of Doc. 9956 once traffic forecasts have been completed – 2018 Aviation Training and Education Directory

NGAP Tomorrow • Help unite aviation, education and labour sectors at national levels • Regions to drive their own outreach activities, coordinated by the ICAO Regional Offices, with participation of all partners, supported by the NGAP Programme • Assist States and industry by providing guidance and tools for engaging the next generation and promoting aviation amongst youth as a viable career

THANK YOU!