Next Gen EC 2020 NEXT GENERATION CHALLENGES IN

#Next. Gen. EC 2020 NEXT GENERATION CHALLENGES IN ENERGY AND CLIMATE MODELLING WORKSHOP: FUTURE SESSION 1

#Next. Gen. EC 2020 WELCOME BACK The aim is to stimulate an active and ongoing discussion around the use of both historic and future climate datasets in energy system analysis. Yesterday we discussed - what the risk in energy-climate is and - how we could quantify this. - Thereby trying to determine the gap in our knowledge. - In the end we considered potential strategies to reduce risks/uncertainties.

#Next. Gen. EC 2020 LOOKING FORWARD Today we will change our focus the assessment of energy-climate related risks under ‘the’ future climate. Today we shall dive deep and discuss: - what the effect of climate change is on the assessment of risk - Where sources of error lie that could change this assessment - the use of GCM’s in energy-climate modelling and - what the consequences are of using GCM’s. https: //xkcd. com/2323/

#Next. Gen. EC 2020 TIMELINE FOR FUTURE SESSION • 13: 05 Intro to the session • 13: 15 Keynote Talks • 13: 45 Breakout Group 3 (thematic) • 14: 30 Feedback • 15: 00 Break • 15: 30 Breakout Group 4 (random) • 16: 15 Feedback • 16: 45 Concluding remarks • 17: 00 Close & drinks 4

#Next. Gen. EC 2020 KEYNOTE SPEAKERS Paula Gonzalez Sofia Simões Bri-Mathias Hodge Weather & Climate Energy System Energy-Met 5

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BREAKOUT GROUP FACILITATORS Marianne Zeyringer Designing future power systems Jethro Browell Managing and Operating weather sensitive power systems Mathios Panteli Designing future power systems Julie Lundquist Characterising extreme weather events relevant for energy Adriaan Hilbers Alex Kies Designing future power systems Large Scale Power Systems Hazel Thornton Power system risk assessment for weather driven stress Katharina Gruber Resource characterisation for wind solar and Hydro power 7

#Next. Gen. EC 2020 BOG 3 DISCUSSION TOPIC • How should we quantify climate change induced changes in assessed risk/uncertainty? 8

#Next. Gen. EC 2020 BOG 3 DISCUSSION: AFFECT OF CC? • To what degree can CC affect the assessment of climate risk and uncertainty? • How could a high impact/extreme event change under CC? • Can we group these somehow? • How do you/should we compare the climate risk of different scenario’s/levels of climate change? • change in severity vs. change in risk • Can we start to generate a list of error sources that effect the assessment of climate risk/uncertainty? • At what stage is an error-source important? In thematic breakout groups 9

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#Next. Gen. EC 2020 BREAKOUT GROUP FORMAT • Introduce yourselves – same group as day 1 in first BOG • Discussion Part 3 • • A pre-assigned chair will guide the discussion Offer to share your screen and take notes Topics will be visible as a reminder Feedback: nominate one person to feedback – Note your group name! You will have 45 minutes. Please re-join for the next part at 14: 30 11

#Next. Gen. EC 2020 FEEDBACK TO WORKSHOP Please prepare to feed back in 1 -2 sentences: • First: An example of how CC affects climate risk • Second: An error source that affects the assessment of climate risk/uncertainty We’ll ask each group in turn to feed back. If your feedback is already covered by another group please say so and we’ll move on to avoid repetition 12

ZOOM ASSISTANCE Leave breakout room See breakout room Menu Leave breakout room

#Next. Gen. EC 2020 BOG 3 DISCUSSION: AFFECT OF CC? • To what degree can CC affect the assessment of climate risk and uncertainty? • How could a high impact/extreme event change under CC? • Can we group these somehow? • How do you/should we compare the climate risk of different scenario’s/levels of climate change? • change in severity vs. change in risk • Can we start to generate a list of error sources that effect the assessment of climate risk/uncertainty? • At what stage is an error-source important? In thematic breakout groups 1 4

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#Next. Gen. EC 2020 BOG 4 DISCUSSION TOPIC • What are the implications of using Global Circulation Models (GCM’s) in the assessment of future energyclimate risk? 1 6

#Next. Gen. EC 2020 BOG 4 DISCUSSION: GCM’S Each group will discuss 2 topics (indicated in the notes document) A. B. C. D. E. Variability and time-slice experiments Issues with standard bias assessment Fit for purpose bias-assessment, does it exist? Comparing low-resolution future with high resolution historic data Assessment of extremes in GCM’s Please take the time to dive deep into the assigned topics In randomly assigned groups… You’re going to make some new friends! 1 8

#Next. Gen. EC 2020 BREAKOUT GROUP FORMAT • Introduce yourselves • Discussion Part 4 • • A pre-assigned chair will guide the discussion Offer to share your screen and take notes Topics will be visible as a reminder Feedback: nominate one person to feedback! You will have 45 minutes. Feel free to take a short break before re-joining the next part at 16: 15, but don’t be late. 19

#Next. Gen. EC 2020 FEEDBACK TO WHOLE GROUP Please prepare to feed back in 1 sentences each: • The topic’s discussed and main conclusion! We’ll ask each group in turn to feed back. If your feedback is already covered by another group please say so and we’ll move on to avoid repetition 20

#Next. Gen. EC 2020 BOG 4 DISCUSSION: GCM’S Each group will discuss 2 topics (indicated in the notes document) A. B. C. D. E. Variability and time-slice experiments Issues with standard bias assessment Fit for purpose bias-assessment, does it exist? Comparing low-resolution future with high resolution historic data Assessment of extremes in GCM’s Please take the time to dive deep into the assigned topics In randomly assigned groups… You’re going to make some new friends! 2 1

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#Next. Gen. EC 2020 SUMMARY OF FUTURE SESSION 23 https: //www. wordclouds. com/

#Next. Gen. EC 2020 THANK YOU FOR ATTENDING! • There will be an opportunity to hang around for drinks, please join the dedicated Breakout room for this! 24