Next Century Forecasted Sea Level Rise What Does

“Next Century Forecasted Sea Level Rise: What Does It Mean for Houston? ” April 9, 2008 Baker Hall, Rice University Hosted by the Baker Institute Energy Forum Center for the Study of Environment & Society Shell Center for Sustainability

April 8, 2008 Atmospheric CO 2 387 ppm http: //www. esrl. noaa. gov/gmd/ccgg/iadv/

April 2008: 387 ppm Carbon Dioxide (ppmv) 350 Last Interglacial Last Ice Age 300 Pre-industrial: 280 ppm 250 200 Glacial 180 ppm [Adapted from Figure 6. 3, ©IPCC 2007: WG 1 -AR 4] 600 500 400 300 200 Thousands of Years Before Present 100 0 2008 Humans are ‘forcing’ the system in a new way. CO 2 increases are mainly due to fossil fuel burning. CO 2 has not been this high in more than half a million years.

Industrial Revolution and the Atmosphere The current concentrations of key greenhouse gases, and their rates of change, are unprecedented

The World Has Warmed Globally averaged, the planet is about 0. 75°C warmer than it was in 1860, based upon dozens of high-quality long records using thermometers worldwide, including land ocean. 11 of the last 12 years are among 12 warmest since 1850 in the global average.

Attribution IPCC (2007) Most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the mid-20 th century is very likely (>90% certainty) due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations TS-23

A 1 B is a typical “business as usual” (2090 -2099) scenario: Global mean warming 2. 8 o. C; Much of land area warms by ~3. 5 o. C Arctic warms by ~7 o. C; would be less for less emission

Sea level in a hotter world Future changes could be up to 1. 5 feet (0. 5 m) by 2100, and up to 3 feet (1 meter) within about 2 -3 centuries, depending on how much GHGs are emitted. And more if rapid ice flow will occur!

New Orleans Houston Galveston