New York State Public Service Commission Session Audio
New York State Public Service Commission Session Audio Session in Progress October 15, 2020
Winter Preparedness of the Natural Gas and Electric Systems 2020 -2021 Winter Season Office of Electric, Gas, and Water Office of Consumer Services October 15, 2020 Albany, New York
3 • Natural Gas Winter Outlook • Bulk Electric Systems Preparedness • Electric Utility Portfolio Price Volatility and Supply Price Outlook • Outreach and Education Programs
4 Natural Gas Winter Outlook Davide Maioriello Pipeline Safety and Reliability Office of Electric, Gas, and Water
5 Capacity and Supply Review q Review of expected customer requirements for design weather conditions for this winter q Review of supplies to meet those customer requirements q Staff’s monitoring of supply, prices and demand response customers throughout the winter
6 LDC Commodity Portfolio 2019 -20 Winter 2020 -21 Typical Forecast Portfolio (11/1/19) $/dth 2019 -20 Winter Actual $/dth 2020 -21 Winter Forecast (9/1/20) $/dth New York State Gas Utility Typical 2020 -21 Winter Supply Portfolio [VALUE] Physical Storage 31% $ 2. 17 $ 2. 13 $ 1. 67 Hedged Supply 17% $ 2. 83 $ 2. 38 $ 2. 74 Flowing Gas 52% $ 2. 59 $ 2. 07 $ 2. 77 $ 2. 50 $ 2. 15 $ 2. 43 Average Winter Commodity Price Firm Customers 31% 17% PHYSICAL HEDGES (Storage) FINANCIAL HEDGES FLOWING
19 . 1. 2 0 11 18 . 1. 2 0 11 17 . 1. 2 0 11 16 . 1. 2 0 11 15 . 1. 2 0 11 14 . 1. 2 0 11 13 . 1. 2 0 11 12 . 1. 2 0 11 11 . 1. 2 0 11 10 . 1. 2 0 11 09 . 1. 2 0 11 08 . 1. 2 0 11 07 . 1. 2 0 11 06 . 1. 2 0 11 05 . 1. 2 0 11 04 . 1. 2 0 11 03 . 1. 2 0 11 7 Natural Gas Historical Futures NYMEX/CME Settle Prices 16, 00 14, 00 12, 00 10, 00 8, 00 6, 00 4, 00 2, 00 0, 00
8 Residential Heating Customer Statewide Avg. Winter Bills 2019 -20 Actual Bill 2019 -20 2020 -21 % Change Normal 2019 Actual 2019 Weather Bill -20 Forecast vs. Normal 2020 -21 Forecast $725 $739 $793 7. 3% 9. 4%
9 Natural Gas Planning q Gas Planning Proceeding – Case 20 -G-0131 q Filings have been received by the utilities related to identified vulnerable areas on their systems q Staff will file a proposal in the near future to modernize the planning process used by natural gas utilities q After obtaining stakeholder input, Staff will return to the Commission with a set of recommendations for your consideration
10 Natural Gas Summary q Customer bills this winter are forecasted to be higher than last year due to: q Higher projected commodity prices compared to last year q Increased delivery costs q Actual bills will vary depending on the impact of weather and customer usage q NY gas utilities have completed contracting for supplies to be ready to meet 2020 -2021 winter conditions q Last season’s Enbridge Force Majeure is expected to be fully resolved prior to the winter heating season q Staff will continue to monitor the capacity markets and report any problems to the Commission
11 Bulk Electric Systems Preparedness Richard Quimby Electric Safety and Reliability Office of Electric, Gas, and Water
12 New York State Historic Coincident Peaks 36 000 Record Summer Peak 33 956 34 000 32 000 30 660 MW 30 000 28 000 Record Winter Peak 25 738 26 000 Winter Forecast 24 130 24 000 22 000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Year Summer
13 New York Winter 2020/21 Capability & Load NYISO Provided Data Winter Generation Capacity MW 40, 943 New York Special Case Resources (SCRs) 839 Net Purchases & Sales 496 LESS: Total Projected Capacity Outages (5, 889) NET WINTER CAPACITY RESOURCES 36, 388 Winter Peak Load Forecast 24, 130 Operating Reserve Requirement 2, 620 Capacity Margin 9, 638
14 State Agencies and NYISO Preparations q State Agencies and NYISO Winter Protocol q Staff reached out to major generation facility owners located primarily in the Southeastern portion of New York q On-site storage and replenishment of fuel oil is a critical priority q NYISO Winter 2020/2021 Preparations § Continue enhancements and activities developed over recent years • Monitor fuel availability • Share confidential operational information with interstate pipelines
15 Electric Utility Portfolio Price Volatility and Supply Price Outlook Paul J. Darmetko Jr. Upstate Rates & Tariffs Office of Electric, Gas, and Water
де ию к-0 н- 8 де 09 ию к-0 н- 9 де 10 ию к-1 н- 0 де 11 ию к-1 н- 1 де 12 ию к-1 н- 2 де 13 ию к-1 н- 3 де 14 ию к-1 н- 4 де 15 ию к-1 н 5 де -16 ию к-1 н- 6 де 17 ию к-1 н- 7 де 18 ию к-1 н 8 де -19 ию к-1 н- 9 20 Coefficient of Variation 16 NYISO Spot Market vs. Utility Full Service Residential Customer Supply Portfolio Volatility 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% (Statewide 12 -month rolling average) Portfolio Market
17 Statewide Weighted Average Full Service Residential Supply Price - Winter Months (Cents per k. Wh) 12, 00 10, 00 8, 00 6, 00 4, 00 2, 00 0, 00 t. Es 0 02 -2 9 01 -2 8 01 -2 7 01 -2 6 01 -2 5 01 -2 4 01 -2 21 20 0 - 8 9 2 20 1 20 7 6 1 20 5 3 4 1 20
18 Outreach and Education Programs Joseph White Consumer Outreach and Education Office of Consumer Services
19 Messages q Bill management strategies q Special customer protections q Energy efficiency tips q Safety information q Storm preparation
20 DPS Outreach Efforts q Educational materials q Grassroots outreach • Virtual presentations • Websites and toll-free numbers q Partnerships • • • service organizations government agencies community based groups
21 Utility Outreach Efforts q Media Advertisements q Website/Social Media/Mobile Applications q Consumer Education q Public Relations q Outbound calling and IVR messages q Employee Training and Quality Monitoring
22 Questions?
New York State Public Service Commission Session Audio Session in Progress October 15, 2020
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