New developments on air pollution effects to ecosystems

New developments on air pollution effects to ecosystems: ozone and acidification Workshop on review and Assessment of European Air Pollution Policies, Gothenburg, 25 -27 October 2004 Jean-Paul Hettelingh CLRTAP-Working Group on Effects ICP M&M Coordination Center for Effects, taking note of JEG, ICP-V, ICP-IM, ICP-F, ICP-W, ICP-M. LBG/LB 1 Working Group on Effects, ICPM&M-Coordination Center for Effects, J. -P. Hettelingh, Gothenburg, 25 -27 October 2004

Ozone LBG/LB 2 Working Group on Effects, ICPM&M-Coordination Center for Effects, J. -P. Hettelingh, Gothenburg, 25 -27 October 2004

Ozone Findings from long term monitoring • Ozone injury on vegetation is widespread in Europe and ozone reduces the growth of sensitive plant species in particular in central and southern Europe • Leaf injury has been recorded on ozone-sensitive species at 85% of the ICP-V sites, every year and several times per year, and on 20 horti and agricultural commercial crop in the growing season. • Ozone causes forest tree growth reduction LBG/LB 3 Working Group on Effects, ICPM&M-Coordination Center for Effects, J. -P. Hettelingh, Gothenburg, 25 -27 October 2004

Key indicators for Ozone in RAINS policy support • AOT 40 for crops and natural vegetation: Adverse effects when the Ozone concentration Accumulated over a Threshold of 40 ppb (AOT 40) exceeds 3 ppm h • AOT 40 forests: Growth reduction when the AOT 40 exceeds 5 ppm h or AOT 30 exceeds 9 ppm h. LBG/LB 4 Working Group on Effects, ICPM&M-Coordination Center for Effects, J. -P. Hettelingh, Gothenburg, 25 -27 October 2004

Excess of AOT 40 forests (5 ppm h). 2000 2010 2020 Source: CIAM; EMEP Eulerian model; 1999 & 2003 meteo. LBG/LB 5 Working Group on Effects, ICPM&M-Coordination Center for Effects, J. -P. Hettelingh, Gothenburg, 25 -27 October 2004

Ozone effect monitoring: New developments • Biology: New stomatal flux-based exposure indices to account for biological processes involving ozone uptake, • Meteorology: Taking account of humidity and other climatic conditions (light, temperature) • Policy relevance: – Assessment of ecosystem area specific risk of ozone damage – Multiple impact assessment including e. g. trade off between air pollution and climate change effects. LBG/LB 6 Working Group on Effects, ICPM&M-Coordination Center for Effects, J. -P. Hettelingh, Gothenburg, 25 -27 October 2004

Acidification LBG/LB 7 Working Group on Effects, ICPM&M-Coordination Center for Effects, J. -P. Hettelingh, Gothenburg, 25 -27 October 2004

Average Accumulated Exceedance of critical load of acidity in 2000 EMEP Lagrangian (shown on 50 x 50 grid) EMEP Unified Exceedance caused by S and N deposition LBG/LB 8 Working Group on Effects, ICPM&M-Coordination Center for Effects, J. -P. Hettelingh, Gothenburg, 25 -27 October 2004

Acidity Exceedance in 2010: Sulphur still important ! By S deposition alone LBG/LB 9 By S + NOx deposition Working Group on Effects, ICPM&M-Coordination Center for Effects, J. -P. Hettelingh, Gothenburg, 25 -27 October 2004

Acidity Exceedance: continued … 2010 By S + NH 3 deposition LBG/LB 10 By total N deposition Working Group on Effects, ICPM&M-Coordination Center for Effects, J. -P. Hettelingh, Gothenburg, 25 -27 October 2004

Nutrient Nitrogen LBG/LB 11 Working Group on Effects, ICPM&M-Coordination Center for Effects, J. -P. Hettelingh, Gothenburg, 25 -27 October 2004

Average Accumulated Exceedance of critical load of nutrient N in 2000 EMEP Lagrangian (shown on 50 x 50 grid) LBG/LB 12 EMEP Unified Working Group on Effects, ICPM&M-Coordination Center for Effects, J. -P. Hettelingh, Gothenburg, 25 -27 October 2004

% eco-area with CLO-nutrient nitrogen exceeded in 2000 and 2010 2000 2010 Europe EU 25 1998 critical loads 26. 0 60. 7 24. 6 54. 4 2004 critical loads 24. 5 56. 0 23. 1 49. 0 grid average deposition 29. 2 64. 9 28. 5 59. 2 ecosystem specific dep. 35. 1 77. 7 34. 7 73. 0 Lagrangian model Unified Model & 2004 CLs LBG/LB 13 Working Group on Effects, ICPM&M-Coordination Center for Effects, J. -P. Hettelingh, Gothenburg, 25 -27 October 2004

Nutrient nitrogen exceedance: continued … 2010 By NOx deposition LBG/LB 14 By NH 3 deposition Working Group on Effects, ICPM&M-Coordination Center for Effects, J. -P. Hettelingh, Gothenburg, 25 -27 October 2004

Exceedance…meaning ? LBG/LB 15 Working Group on Effects, ICPM&M-Coordination Center for Effects, J. -P. Hettelingh, Gothenburg, 25 -27 October 2004

New development: dynamic modelling Deposition critical load Soil critical limit Biology Critical response LBG/LB 16 Working Group on Effects, ICPM&M-Coordination Center for Effects, J. -P. Hettelingh, Gothenburg, 25 -27 October 2004

Nitrogen supply Source: Vaclav Smill (1996) Cycles of Life, Scientific American Library, p. 188; Based on J. D Ader (1993) in: Donnell and Picket, Springer Verlag. LBG/LB 17 Working Group on Effects, ICPM&M-Coordination Center for Effects, J. -P. Hettelingh, Gothenburg, 25 -27 October 2004

Eutrophication and Carbon sequestration: unraveling the dynamics of a trade-off issue… CO 2 + S dep - Temperature + N dep [O 3] - +/- - - Biomass Soil C/N LBG/LB 18 A new generation of multiple impact monitoring and assessment Working Group on Effects, ICPM&M-Coordination Center for Effects, J. -P. Hettelingh, Gothenburg, 25 -27 October 2004

Conclusions • • Ozone continues to stress ecosystems New knowledge on Ozone DR-relations Acidification still puts ecosystems at risk Ammonia most important, but sulphur not over Eutrophication an increasing problem Can we trade off N eutrophication for C sequestration ? More knowledge required of system dynamics of ecosystem impacts and ozone, acidification, eutrophication and climate change • Long term monitoring indispensable to support a new generation of the multiple effect assessment methodology. LBG/LB 19 Working Group on Effects, ICPM&M-Coordination Center for Effects, J. -P. Hettelingh, Gothenburg, 25 -27 October 2004

www. rivm. nl/cce j. p. hettelingh@rivm. nl LBG/LB 20 Working Group on Effects, ICPM&M-Coordination Center for Effects, J. -P. Hettelingh, Gothenburg, 25 -27 October 2004