New Coupled ClimateCarbon Simulations with the IPSL Model

New Coupled Climate-Carbon Simulations with the IPSL Model From validation to sensitivity analysis P. CADULE, L. BOPP, P. FRIEDLINGSTEIN Seventh International Carbon Dioxide Conference

2 Carbon Models Offline Responses [IPCC TAR, 2001] Either weaker sinks or sources according to future projections with identical IPCC CO 2 and Climate scenarii

3 Carbon Models Online Responses Atm. [CO 2] All models have a positive feedback but … Δ[CO 2]max= 224 ppm Δ[CO 2]min = 19 ppm [C 4 MIP- Friedlingstein et al. , 2005] Large panel of possible responses due to a wide range of climate and carbon models sensitivities

4 A New Carbon Climate Coupled Model Atmospheric [CO 2] Climate Atmosphere Coupler LMDZ 4 OASIS 2. 4 Ocean ORCA-LIM OPA 8. 2 ∆t = physic time step CO 2 concentration re-calculated each month Terrestrial biosphere ORCHIDEE (STOMATE activated) ∆t = 1 day Marine Biochemistry PISCES Carbon EMI = external forcing [Marland et al, 2005 Houghton, 2002] Land flux Gt. C/mth Ocean flux Gt. C/mth Net total carbon flux Fluxland + Fluxocean

5 A New Carbon Climate Coupled Model • LOOP 02 : fully coupled, emissions – Climate aware of CO 2 increase • LOOP 03 : decoupled, emissions – Climate agnostic to CO 2 increase fix atmospheric CO 2 concentration [CO 2] = 286. 2 ppm Climate Fossil emi. LOOP 02 CO 2 LOOP 01 LOOP 03 LOOP 02 LOOP 03 Highlights CO 2 change impact on fluxes Highlights climate change impact on fluxes Geochemic al impact Land Ocean Climate impact Climate feedback

6 Simulated CO 2 Concentration [CO 2] is recalculated each month based on : positive feedback : 8 ppm in 2040 • fossil fuel and land-use emissions • net CO 2 fluxes computed by ORCHIDEE (land) and PISCES (ocean) LOOP 2 vs LOOP 3 Weaker land oceanic uptakes in coupled run (LOOP 2)

Outline I. Confront results to observations A. B. C. D. Budgets Seasonal Cycle IAV Long term trends II. Better understand processes individually 1. Sensitivity experiments (e. g. Ocean Processes)

8 Carbon Dioxide Concentration Simulation matches historical data… [CDIAC, 2005] Is it enough to be confident in the model projections ?

9 Global Budgets : 80 s and 90 s Atmospheric carbon variation Land use fossil fuel land ocean - 2, 8 Gt. C/yr - 2, 6 Gt. C/yr - 1. 8 Gt. C/yr - 2, 2 Gt. C/yr Good agreement between LOOP and IPCC

10 Regional Budgets : 1988 -2003 Need to confront models results to inversions data Over-estimation in the tropical region for the continental biosphere

11 Regional Breakdown : 1988 -2003 N. Atl and N. Pac should be different 22 emission regions and 78 CO 2 measurements locations [Baker et al. , 2005]

12 Seasonal Cycle at Mauna Loa A realistic seasonal cycle at a CO 2 measurement location Obs. Model

13 Inter-Annual Variability of CO 2 Fluxes [Baker et al. , 2005] Over estimation of IAV in Land Under estimation of IAV in Ocean Land ocean inter-annual variability [Pg. C yr-1]

14 Atlantic Long Term Trends : The Ocean GLODAP Pacific LOOP 96. 5 Pg. C (1860 -1995) 106 ± 17 Pg. C (1800 -1994) CO 2 Anthropogenic micromol/kg [GLODAP, Sabine et al. , 2004]

Outline I. Confront results to observations A. B. C. D. Budgets Seasonal Cycle IAV Long term trends II. Better understand processes individually 1. Sensitivity experiments (e. g. Ocean Processes)

16 Offline simulations to determine sensitivity to climate change Atmospheric p. CO 2 (ppm) Sensitivity Experiments on Ocean Uptake 1 x CO 2 4 x CO 2 Ocean Uptake (Gt. C / yr) Global Temperature (°C) Oceanic sink in coupled run is weaker at 4 x CO 2 Geochemical + Climatic Effects Geochemical Effect

17 Depth Ocean stratification prevents anth. CO 2 penetration. Depth Climate Impact on the marine C-Cycle Only Impact on the natural C-Cycle -25 Gt. C All effects - 80 Gt. C Years

18 Continental biosphere and oceans sinks are influenced by CO 2 increase and by climate change. • Obvious need to model Carbon Cycle- Climate interactions. • Wide range of possible response drives the need for a better understanding of involved processes. • Observations and inversions both at global and breakdown region scale constitute the best common reference • Identify and implement, in the models, human dependent processes (e. g. land-use) that play an important role in the carbon cycle.

Thank You ! With the contribution of Rachid BENSHILA, Patrick BROCKMANN, Philippe BOUSQUET, Arnaud CAUBEL, Sébastien DENVIL, Jean-Louis DUFRESNE, Laurent FAIRHEAD, Marie-Angèle FILIBERTI, Corinne LEQUERE, Cyril MOULIN, Philippe PEYLIN, Peter RAYNER

NAME Occupation e-mail LAURENT BOPP Climate & Ocean Biogeochemical Cycles Laurent. Bopp@cea. fr Patricia CADULE Inter. Between Climate Change & BGC – Ph. D student Patricia. Cadule@ipsl. jussieu. fr Pierre FRIEDLINGSTEIN Climate & Land Carbon Cycle Pierre. Friedlingstein@cea. fr NAME Occupation e-mail Rachid BENSHILA Ocean modelling Engineer Rachid. Benshila@lodyc. jussieu. f Patrick BROCKMANN Visualisation software Engineer Patrick. Brockmann@cea. fr Philippe BOUSQUET CO 2 transport Philippe. Bousquet@cea. fr Arnaud CAUBEL Software Engineer - coupling aspects Arnaud. Caubel@cea. fr Sébastien DENVIL Climate modelling and global change simulations Engineer Sebastien. Denvil@ipsl. jussieu. fr Jean-Louis DUFRESNE Climate modelling Jean. Louis. Dufresne@lmd. jussieu. fr Laurent FAIRHEAD Atmospheric modelling Engineer Laurent. Fairhead@lmd. jussieu. fr Marie-Angèle FILIBERTI Atmospheric Tracer transport Engineer filiberti@ipsl. jussieu. fr Philippe PEYLIN CO 2 transport and Inversion Philippe. Peylin@cea. fr Peter RAYNER CO 2 Inversion Peter. Rayner@cea. fr

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Backup

24 “ En résumé ” • The need for Carbon-Climate Coupling – Modeling the carbon cycle – Coupling it with the climate • But now essentially – Better understand processes individually – Confront results to observations Pushing towards convergence of processes and their responses

25 Climate and Carbon Models Sensitivity LOOP vs C 4 MIP models ocean sensitivity to [CO 2] ocean sensitivity to T° land sensitivity to [CO 2] land sensitivity to T° climate sensitivity LOOP is inside C 4 MIP responses range. But is it a sufficient criterion ? [C 4 MIP- Friedlingstein et al. , 2005]

26 Climate Change and Carbon Cycle Interactions ocean sensitivity to [CO 2] ocean sensitivity to T° land sensitivity to [CO 2] land sensitivity to T° climate sensitivity Wide range of climate and carbon models [C 4 MIP-Friedlingstein et al. , 2005] sensitivity

27 Simulated CO 2 Fluxes ORCHIDEE PISCES

28 Terrestrial Biosphere Model : ORCHIDEE [Krinner, 2005]

29 Oceanic Biogeochemical Model PISCES NH 4+ NO 3 - PO 43 - Diatoms Si Nano-phyto Iron Micro. Zoo D. O. M Meso Zoo P. O. M Small Ones Big Ones Marine biology is highly influenced by the ocean dynamic motivating the need of both PISCES and OPA [Aumont, 2001; Aumont 2003]

30 Satellite Data Comparison

31 Sensitivity Analysis Sensitivity of ocean carbon models to climate change min = - 14 Gt. C/°C max = - 60 Gt. C/°C Reduction of carbon quantity entering the ocean shows a large range amongst the models year So, what does influence the ocean response to the climate ?