New Congress New Governors New Research Same Education

New Congress, New Governors, New Research: Same Education Policy? Noelle Ellerson American Association of School Administrators National Conference on Education 2011

2010 Elections: Change! The last time federal leadership was a Democratic President, a Democratic Senate and a Republican House was 1858. n The last time this many Republicans were elected to state legislatures was 1928. n The last time Republicans had a House majority of this size was 1938. n The last time there was as much turnover in Governors was in the 1920 s. n

State Elections Nearly 30 new Governors have taken office. n Dems lost 8 Governor seats n Impact on state commitment to federal initiatives? n – Race to the Top – Common Core n 19 state legislative chambers switched leadership – Both Houses: AL, ME, MN, NH, NC and WI – House: CO, IN, IA, MI , MT, OH and PA

Overarching Debate: Fiscal & International Stability Federal deficit: Republicans elected on their promise to act NOW n Debt ceiling: Likely to be reached by late April — leverage for spending cuts? n National Commission on Fiscal Responsibility and Reform: “Our nation is on an unsustainable fiscal path. . . neither political party is without blame. ” n Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, Defense on chopping block for cuts n

Unrest in the Middle East n Huge implications, many not yet clear n Could overshadow domestic issues — including education n Potential economic impact — higher prices for oil, gasoline, other petroleumbased fuels n Big question: Will instability subside? Spread beyond Egypt?

Congressional Demographics n Democratic Administration n Just down the street, on the Hill: – HOUSE: 242 Republicans, 193 Democrats – SENATE: 53 Democrats, 47 Republicans

House Speaker John Boehner One of the four authors of No Child Left Behind n 21 days after taking oath: With Sen. Lieberman (CT), introduced bill to revive DC voucher program — could be the only bill he authors all year, staff told POLITICO n Vouchers = area of agreement among vast majority of GOP caucus n So far: no major comments about ESEA, no appearances with Duncan n

More Republican House Leaders Left to right: Majority Leader Eric Cantor (VA), Budget Committee Chair Paul Ryan (WI), former Republican Conference Chair Mike Pence (IN), Appropriations Committee Chair Hal Rogers (KY)

Republican Leadership Goals n n n Cut federal spending — back to 2008 levels? 2006 levels? Repeal health care reform Roll back federal regulations More tax cuts Issue subpoenas, hold oversight hearings to undermine and discredit Administration Goal: tarnish and diminish accomplishments of 111 th Congress

Budget Cuts Proposed by GOP Leadership n n n Roll back non-security spending to 2008 levels Cut up to $9. 4 billion from pre-K to post-graduate education programs; would reduce or eliminate services for up to 8. 2 million students, including up to 10, 900 fewer teachers to reduce class sizes in Title I schools Repeal increase in federal Medicaid match in education jobs bill; would devastate budgets Eliminate all remaining ARRA funding Remember: their customer base is GOP governors, GOP presidential hopefuls

Big 8 in Education: House Side Education & the Workforce Early Childhood, Elementary and Secondary Education Committee Subcommittee John Kline (MN) George Miller (CA) Duncan D. Hunter (CA) Dale Kildee (MI) Chair Ranking Member Note: Chairs were not in Congress when No Child Left Behind was written!

Big 8 in Education: Senate Side Health, Education, Labor & Pensions Committee Children and Families Subcommittee Tom Harkin (IA) Mike Enzi (WY) Jeff Bingaman (NM) Lamar Alexander (TN) Chair Ranking Member Note: Strong awareness of rural concerns!

House of Oversight…er…Representatives First hearing: TARP and the foreclosure crisis, January 26 n To come: Federal regulation, Wiki. Leaks, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, Afghanistan, FDA recalls, Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission n American Recovery and Reinvestment Act: Where did the money go? n Representative Darrell Issa (CA) Chair, House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform

Republicans and ESEA: They Are on Our Side n John Kline: “There is common bipartisan concern that we must do something [about fixing NCLB] … I appreciate much of what Secretary Duncan is trying to accomplish with the Race to the Top Fund, but I continue to have doubts about some of the specific tactics being used to get there. ” n Duncan D. Hunter: “We have a lot of common ground. We also see a major need. It’s time to get it done. ” n Mike Enzi: “We’re trying to make the law more simple and put in state and local control. ” n Lamar Alexander: “We need to get away from Washington announcing whether schools are passing or failing. ”

ESEA…. It’s About Time! n House Education and Workforce Committee: – First hearing February last week n Rep. Kline: Piecemeal. B – Big bill = political liability for House members Senate HELP Committee: No more hearings — 10 held last year n Sen. Harkin: Would like to get a bill ready to mark up by the Easter recess, on the floor by the summer — Education Week, January 26, 2011 n

Research n Disconnect between research rhetoric and research reality n Unfortunate tendency to dismiss/avoid friction n Budget proposal includes funding for research n Need for research, especially rural research

State Legislatures n Let’s Have a Conversation – – – – n Vouchers Union-bashing Collective Bargaining Superintendent Salaries Credentialing Teacher Training Tenure Monthly State Advocacy Call

Questions? Noelle Ellerson Assistant Director, Policy Analysis & Advocacy American Association of School Administrators nellerson@aasa. org 703 -875 -0764