New Challenges in Agricultural Statistics Haluk Kasnakoglu Statistics

New Challenges in Agricultural Statistics Haluk Kasnakoglu Statistics Division, FAO MEXSAI, Third International Conference on Agricultural Statistics 2 -4 November, 2004 Cancun, Mexico

Outline o Theme of MEXSAI “From Agricultural to Rural Development Indicators” o o New Issues and Challenges FAO Activities

Is There a Need to Review the Domain of Agricultural Statistics? o Why do we ask? n n n Agriculture is loosing importance so we should shift to other domains? We have exhausted agriculture and have time remaining to do other things? We could not manage agriculture and try our luck in other domains? No demand for current domains? The problems and issues to be addressed are changing?

Is Agriculture Getting Less Important? o o o Share in Population Share in Labour Force Share in Value of Output Share in International Trade Share in Public Expenditures Share in Household Expenditures

Share of Agriculture in Population o o o 42 % of the world population in 2004 51% of the world population in 1980 More than 40% of the total population in one-third of the countries. Between 15 -40% of the total population in one-third of the countries Less than 15% in the remaining one-third of the countries

Share of Agriculture in Output Value o o o Agriculture accounted for 4 % of the world’s total GDP in 2002 The share of agriculture in total world GDP in 1980 was 5% In nearly 40% of the countries the share of agriculture in GDP is more than 20%. In 60% of the countries the share of agricultural GDP is more than 10% In nearly quarter of the countries the share of agricultural GDP is less than 5%

Share of Agriculture in Trade (X) o o o Share of primary (and some first level processed) agricultural products in value of world trade in 2002 was 7% as compared to 12% in the early 80’s. In more than one-third of the countries, the share agricultural exports in total exports is more than 20%. In nearly one-quarter of the countries on the other hand the share of agriculture in exports is less than 4%.

Share of Agriculture in Trade (M) o o o Share of agricultural imports in total import value is more than 20% in more than 20% of the countries Agriculture constitutes more than 10% of the import bill in nearly 70% of the countries The share of agriculture in import bill and export earnings substantially increase when we account for processed agricultural products and agricultural inputs.

Share in Public and Private Expenditures o Share of Support to Agriculture in GDP’s n n o About 1. 5% in OECD countries About 5 -10% in many developing countries Share of Food in Household Budgets n n About 10 -20% in developed countries About 20 -40% in fast developing countries Over 50% in least developed countries Share of all agriculture related items (clothing, wood) is higher

In summary, o o o o Agriculture preserves its importance as an economic activity for populations in most countries The monetary value of agriculture’s output is low as before. The importance of agricultural trade in primary products is diminishing but that of processed agricultural commodities is increasing. Public expenditures in agriculture are in a downward trend Share in household expenditures of food and agricultural commodities diminishes in higher income countries. The range for importance of agriculture is large And…

Few Big Players! o 5 countries account for n n n n o 50% of world’s GDP 40% of world’s agricultural GDP 65% of world’s agricultural population 50% of world’s food production (calories) 50% of word’s food consumption (calories) 40% of world’s agricultural exports 40% of world agricultural imports China, USA, India, Brazil, France, Germany are among the key players.

Nothing Else Left to Do in Agriculture? o o For traditional domains like production and yields on the supply side and land, labor, fertilizers and tractors on the input side may be yes. A lot more to do in other areas such as prices, margins, costs, incomes to name a few. Agricultural economists are way ahead in terms of research agenda and long started working with simulated data. Agricultural statisticians are way behind busy with fine tuning of sample frames and lost in micro issues.

Less Demand for Agricultural Statistics? o Unfortunately Yes, because n n n What is produced is not what is demanded Timeleness The Golden Rule Not rich in data points to feed new advances in statistics and econometrics Agricultural policy makers are not interested in agricultural statistics.

So…. o o There is a lot to do in the area of agricultural statistics both at the national and international levels. Nevertheless there is a need for re-aligning agricultural statistics to new problems and user requirements. Agricultural and rural statistics are not alternatives but could complement each other. There is a need for statisticians focusing on both but not in the expense of the other.

Routes for Expansion o Agriculture to Rural n n n o Resources to Production n n o n Consumer is the other actor Consumers are in the rural as well as urban areas Agriculture to Agro-Industry n n o Economic Accounts Input-Output and SAM Producer to Consumer n o Why Rural? Because of Agriculture Production? Supply Oriented What is Rural This is where the value added occurs Connection between production and consumption Agriculture to Related Non-Agriculture n n Forward and Backward Linkages Integrating Agriculture to Rest of Economy

Some more thoughts. . . o o o One of the problems with agricultural statistics has been the concentration on the supply side and the producer and neglect of the demand side and the consumer. The shift in emphasis from agriculture to rural statistics as opposed to the other alternative routes could be a continuation of this old lasting problem. One of the problems with agricultural policies and contributing to their inefficiencies have been the confusion of targets between agriculture and rural development. Neither all rural problems can expected to be solved through agricultural policy nor would agricultural policy be the most efficient way to tackle all rural development issues. Shifting the focus by agricultural statisticians to rural statistics can also contribute to this confusion and inefficiency in both agricultural and rural development policies.

New Issues and Challenges o Wider Scope of Agricultural Statistics n n n o Micro-Data and Confidentiality n o Quality of statistics depends on the quality at the source, processing and the user levels. Meta Data n o Everybody wants micro-data but nobody wants to share theirs with others Quality of Statistics n o Agriculture is covered when the supply, demand the market issues are addressed simultaneously Agriculture is integrated to the rest of the economy and cannot be studied in isolation Nations are integrated to the rest of the world and cannot be studied in isolation With internet there is an inflation of information and statistics from different sources with different definitions and quality and many times not differentiable due to limited meta data. Common Definitions and Classifications n A must for integration of information at all levels

What FAO is doing? o o o Reviewing Conceptual Framework Integration to the International Statistical System Modernization of FAOSTAT New Product “Country. Stat” New Approach to Agricultural Censuses Multi-Layered Quality Assessment and Monitoring

FAOSTAT Conceptual Framework

Integration to International Statistical System o Review of Agriculture Related Classifications n n o Collaboration in Compilation and Processing n n o HS, CPC, ISIC Others (Occupation, Resources, Country, etc) Trade – UNSD, OECD, FAO Labour –ILO Data/Knowledge Exchange

New FAOSTAT - January 2006

An Example FAOSTAT Module

Country. Stat – 9 Pilots in 2005

New Agricultural Census Framework

New Census from Country Perspective

FAO Statistical Data Quality Framework

Thank you. . . I invite you to visit the FAO Statistics Division. Web Page www. fao. org/es/ess/ for our work on these new initiatives and the FAOSTAT Web Page www. fao. org/faostat/ to follow the progress in FAOSTAT and Country. Stat.