Net Energy Next Energy China Renewable Energy Trade
Net Energy Next Energy China Renewable Energy Trade Mission 2006 by Ron Swenson www. Solar. Quest. com/Workshops/China
Global Warming over the Past Millennium Very rapidly we have entered uncharted territory… Over the 20 th century, … energy consumption increased sixteenfold. Global warming from the fossil fuel greenhouse became a major, and increasingly dominant, factor in climate change. Slide from Marty Hoffert NYU (see Smalley)
Oil is going to decline … …but what’s coming up?
Swenson Curve To avoid deprivation, humanity must match depletion with conservation and enduring substitution. www. Hubbert. Peak. com/Swenson
Consequences of Delayed Energy Investment Net Energy Production 120 begin investment before decline 100 80 60 40 Begin investment during decline 20 0 0 10 20 30 40 Time www. Hubbert. Peak. com/Beyond. Oil
Global Solar Energy Balance Solar Energy Input (Tera. Watts) 178, 000 Reflected to Space Immediately 53, 000 Absorbed and Then Reflected as Heat 82, 000 Used to Evaporate Water (Weather) 40, 000 Captured by Plant Photosynthesis Total Energy Used by Human Society 100 13 Total Energy Used by US Society 2. 5 Total Human Food Energy 0. 6 www. hubbert. Peak. com/debate/oilcalcs. htm
Thermodynamics of Coal 1 BOE Plus… • Greenhouse gases • Ravaged land • Water contamination • People displaced • Extraction uses oil EROI = 9 27 ~ electric quality
Thermodynamics of Oil It depends … • Pennsylvania? • Saudi Arabia? • Off-shore? Plus … • Ravaged land/oceans • Greenhouse gases • Water contamination EROI = 10±
Thermodynamics of Nuclear Plus … • Depletion • Low grade ores → Greenhouse gases to process … How do we value a • Waste guard for + 1, 000 year 10, 000+ years wasteland? EROI = 4 12 ~ electric
Thermodynamics of Tar Sands Plus… • Greenhouse gases • Ravaged land • Water contamination • Extraction uses natural gas EROI = 2 or 3 Is it worth the trouble? !
Thermodynamics of Hydrogen Am I missing something? ! EROI = -½
Consequences of Making the Wrong Choice Net Energy Production 120 Moving fast with good solutions 100 80 60 40 Making the wrong choices 20 0 0 10 20 30 40 Time www. Hubbert. Peak. com/Beyond. Oil
Thomas Edison “I'd put my money on the sun and solar energy. What a source of power! I hope we don't have to wait 'til oil and coal run out before we tackle that. ” (1847 -1931) www. Thomas. Edison. com
Thermodynamics of PV • EROI: 5 years • Life: 50 years • Plus it can be bootstrapped EROI = 10 30 ~ electric
Thermodynamics of Thin Film PV • EROI: 6 months • Life: 20 years EROI = 40 120 ~electric
Next Energy www. Hubbert. Peak. com/ASPO-USA
Since oil is big in the transportation sector… … a short history lesson. How did transportation transform? • from solid fuels (hay and then coal) to • liquid fuels (oil) And where do we go from here?
Lest we forget … They did bring coal to Newcastle.
If canal boats are supplanted by railroads, serious unemployment will result … . . . not to mention the numerous farmers now employed in growing hay for horses. Van Buren 1832 8 th President 1837 -1841
No joke! The original buggy whip protest
The Horseless Carriage
From Grid. Lock to Gas Lines
Corn Cars & Bean Buses?
Back to solid fuels?
The All-New Don. Car! www. Hubbert. Peak. com/Transport
ERo. EI(field) >> ERo. EI(solid, liquid, gas)
Electricity. Not exactly a new idea… … and it is ephemeral, like solar power. Lift? See? Touch? A match made in heaven.
The Electric Rail
Personal Rapid Transit (PRT) www. ecotopia. com/ST
Fuels (solid/liquid/gas) will still have a place… • EROI of biofuels too low for urban transport… (not to mention smog, congestion, hazard) • Fuels will remain essential for: • Airplanes • Ships at sea -- with wind power augmentation (Kite. Tugs) • Agriculture • But Solar Is the Key to our Transportation Future! www. ecotopia. com/ST
If canal boats are supplanted by railroads, serious unemployment will result. Captains, cooks, drivers, repairment, and lock tenders will be left without means of livelihood, not to mention the numerous farmers now employed in growing hay for horses. Boat builders would suffer and towline, whip, and harness makers would be left destitute. Martin van Buren, Governor of New York, April 1832.
Energy Revolution (Terawatt Challenge) 14. 5 Terawatts 220 M BOE/day 30 -- 60 Terawatts 450 – 900 MBOE/day The Basis of Prosperity 20 st Century = Oil 21 st Century = [Renewables] www. Hubbert. Peak. com/Smalley
PV: The Growth Industry PV Oil declines at 4%/yr PV increases at 50%/yr
The conclusions are simple: • We are not doing enough fast enough. • To spend our depleting energy capital resources effectively, we must first understand the Thermodynamics (ERo. EI) of the alternatives. • Then we must act quickly with resolve. Economics or Thermodynamics: Which will it be?
Colin Campbell “Photovoltaics … will be economic … when there is serious production. ” 1996 www. Hubbert. Peak. com/Campbell
Can Solar Energy Substitute for Oil? Yes! “Think Tera. Watts ” www. solarquest. com/Workshops/China
If canal boats are supplanted by railroads, serious unemployment will result. Captains, cooks, drivers, repairment, and lock tenders will be left without means of livelihood, not to mention the numerous farmers now employed in growing hay for horses. Boat builders would suffer and towline, whip, and harness makers would be left destitute. Martin van Buren, Governor of New York, April 1832.
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