NEAREST 2 nd year Meet ing Berlim 8

NEAREST 2 nd year Meet ing – Berlim 8 -9 oct 08 NEAREST WP 7 Modelling of tsunami impact in SW Portugal FFCUL Rachid Omira Maria Ana Baptista Miguel Miranda Berlim 8 -9 October 2008

NEAREST 2 nd year Meet ing – Berlim 8 -9 oct 08 WP 7 Modelling of tsunami impact in SW Portugal WP 7. 1 Collation of the new Bathymetric Data (merge data not complete) WP 7. 2 Implementation of a Numerical Tsunami Model for SW Portugal WP 7. 3 Simulation of the 1755 tsunami in the “Boca do Rio” area WP 7. 4 Production of Inundation Maps for Lagos-Sagres WP 7. 5 Model Parametrization and Validation

WP 7. 5 Model Parametrization and Validation NEAREST 2 nd year Meet ing – Berlim 8 -9 oct 08 COMCOT _ LX Adopted from COMCOT (Cornell University, Liu et al. , 1994) n n n COMCOT code (Cornell University) Tsunami Simulation Code Based on Shallow Water Equations Leap-frog scheme Nested grid system Moving boundary scheme CGUL changes: COMCOT – Lx Surfer format input / output Output Inundation / Flow depths

WP 7. 5 Model Parametrization and Validation NEAREST 2 nd year Meet ing – Berlim 8 -9 oct 08 Nested grid system NEAREST AREAS TRANSFER AREAS

WP 7. 5 Model Parametrization and Validation NEAREST 2 nd year Meet ing – Berlim 8 -9 oct 08 Benchmark testing (collab. with TRANFER project) n#1 – RUNUP ONTO A PLANE BEACH

WP 7. 3 Simulation of the 1755 tsunami in the “Boca do Rio” area NEAREST 2 nd year Meet ing – Berlim 8 -9 oct 08 The model earthquake - Lisbon event Fault Plane Strike / Dip / Rake: 340 / 45 / 90 Fault centre Lat / Lon: 37. 0 N / 9. 75 W (SW Lisbon) L = 210 km, W = 75 km, D = 13. 6 m

NEAREST 2 nd year Meet ing – Berlim 8 -9 oct 08 WP 7. 3 Simulation of the 1755 tsunami in the “Boca do Rio” area

NEAREST 2 nd year Meet ing – Berlim 8 -9 oct 08 WP 7. 3 Simulation of the 1755 tsunami along Algarve Does Inundation correlate well to sedimentological evidence?

NEAREST 2 nd year Meet ing – Berlim 8 -9 oct 08 n CASABLANCA TEST SITE

WP 7 Modelling of tsunami impact in Casablanca NEAREST 2 nd year Meet ing – Berlim 8 -9 oct 08 (Johnston, 1996) (Gutscher, 2002, 2006) (Zitellini, 2001, 2003) (Baptista, 1998) (Omira et al, 2007) to be sub. To Natural Hazards Modelled Run up correlates well slip (Okal & Synolakis, GJInt. , 2004 et al)

WP 7 Modelling of tsunami impact in Casablanca NEAREST 2 nd year Meet ing – Berlim 8 -9 oct 08 Vunerability study

Casablanca Harbour area building stock NEAREST 2 nd year Meet ing – Berlim 8 -9 oct 08 n Building Survey by Rachid April 2007

WP 7 Modelling of tsunami impact in Casablanca NEAREST 2 nd year Meet ing – Berlim 8 -9 oct 08 Tsunami Vulnerability Assessment

WP 7 Modelling of tsunami impact in test areas NEAREST 2 nd year Meet ing – Berlim 8 -9 oct 08 On going… Modelling tsunami impact in the study Areas using WP 1 +TRANSFER & ERSTA Zones

WP 7 Modelling of tsunami impact in test areas NEAREST 2 nd year Meet ing – Berlim 8 -9 oct 08 On going… Modelling tsunami impact in the study Areas using WP 1 +TRANSFER & ERSTA Zones Miranda JM, Baptista MA, Terrinha P, Matias, L. 31 st ESC Crete Sept 2008

Initial displacements using heterogeneous slip (SCC (Geist & Domovska , 1999)) NEAREST 2 nd year Meet ing – Berlim 8 -9 oct 08 ts INVESTIGATION OF THE EFFECT IN INNUNDATION MAPS ON GOING

NEAREST 2 nd year Meet ing – Berlim 8 -9 oct 08 CONTRIBUTION TO IOC-NEAMTWS

NEAREST 2 nd year Meet ing – Berlim 8 -9 oct 08 For each scenario Maximum wave elevation + Energy radiation + Travel time

NEAREST 2 nd year Meet ing – Berlim 8 -9 oct 08 WP 7 Modelling of tsunami impact in test areas Red line First arrival to the coast Less 30 minutes Computed maximum wave height , energy direction and tsunami travel time for the tsunami scenarios in the Golf of Cadiz

NEAREST 2 nd year Meet ing – Berlim 8 -9 oct 08 WP 7 Modelling of tsunami impact in test areas Priority tsunameter location Warning time 15 min =Arrival Time – Detection time Tsunami travel time + Radiation pattern + bottom topography

WP 7 Modelling of tsunami impact in test areas NEAREST 2 nd year Meet ing – Berlim 8 -9 oct 08 NEXT STEPS Tune Model for Flow Depth Velocity Produce FDVelocity maps Ouput of TRANSFER: standards for Inundation maps (next week Messina ) Do. W 27 – Month 29

Next steps NEAREST 2 nd year Meet ing – Berlim 8 -9 oct 08 Improvement of inundation results with new data GEOSUB August 08 survey

NEAREST 2 nd year Meet ing – Berlim 8 -9 oct 08 publications Tsunami Vulnerability Assessment of Casablanca-Morocco using Numerical Modelling and GIS tools R. Omira , M. A. Baptista , J. M. Miranda , C. Catita, E. Toto Subm to Natural Hazards (may 2008, under revision) REVISION OF THE PORTUGUESE CATALOGUE OF TSUNAMIS M. A. Baptista, J. M. Miranda (subm NHESS, accept with minor revision) REVISION OF THE MOROCCO TSUNAMI CATALOGUE F. Kaabouben, M. A. Baptista, A. Iben Brahim, A. Toto, A. Elmouraouah Ready for submission to NHESS ?

NEAREST 2 nd year Meet ing – Berlim 8 -9 oct 08 TRANSFER WP 1 DATABASE WP 1. 1 - INGV - Database for paleotsunamis Euro-Mediterranean area (boulders or sediments) TRANSFER web site The DB can be visited and updated through the web interface (http: //paleotsunami. rm. ingv. it/) and data can be downloaded in a format ready to be included in the TRANSFER GIS DB.

NEAREST 2 nd year Meet ing – Berlim 8 -9 oct 08 WP 7 Modelling of tsunami impact in SW Portugal Actual/ Forecas t delivery date Estimated indicative person months (all partners involved) Used indicative person months (all partners involved) Lead contractor Del. n. Deliverable name Workpackag e Workpa ckage n. Due Date (project month) D 24 a D 24 b new bathymetric map cruise report WP 7 11 11 12 12 5 5 FFCUL D 25 implementation of a numerical tsunami model for SW Portugal WP 7 17 17 12 12 FFCUL D 26 simulation of the 1755 tsunami in the Boca de Rio area WP 7 29 29 9 9 FFCUL D 27 inundation maps for Lagos -Sagres WP 7 32 32 9 9 FFCUL D 28 validation of the model WP 7 35 35 12 12 FFCUL