ND State Climate Office BiWeekly Drought Update Adnan

ND State Climate Office Bi-Weekly Drought Update Adnan Akyuz, Ph. D. NDSU, AES State Climatologist Last Update: 12/17/2020

US Drought Monitor

State-wide Precipitation and Temperature Rankings Last Month November Precipitation in ND: 11 th Driest Month November Temperature in ND: 21 st Warmest Month NOAA National Centers for Environmental information, Climate at a Glance: Divisional Mapping from https: //www. ncdc. noaa. gov/cag/

County-wide Precipitation and Temperature Rankings Last Month November Precipitation November Temperature NOAA National Centers for Environmental information, Climate at a Glance: Divisional Mapping from https: //www. ncdc. noaa. gov/cag/

State-wide Precipitation and Temperature Rankings Last 3 Months Sep-Nov Precipitation in ND: 3 rd Driest Season Sep-Nov Temperature in ND: 60 th Coldest Season NOAA National Centers for Environmental information, Climate at a Glance: Divisional Mapping from https: //www. ncdc. noaa. gov/cag/

County-wide Precipitation and Temperature Rankings Last 3 Months September-November Precipitation September-November Temperature NOAA National Centers for Environmental information, Climate at a Glance: Divisional Mapping from https: //www. ncdc. noaa. gov/cag/

County-wide Precipitation Rankings Comparison between 2019 and 2020 Fall 2019 Fall 2020 NOAA National Centers for Environmental information, Climate at a Glance: Divisional Mapping from https: //www. ncdc. noaa. gov/cag/

Select City Precipitation Accumulation Deficits Bismarck (Accumulation Since Sep 1) Williston (Accumulation Since Sep 1) Accumulation (in) Sep 1 to date (Departure from normal; Ranking) 1. 48 (-2. 31; 17 th Driest) Sep 1 to date (Departure from normal; Rank) 0. 84 (-2. 13; 6 th Driest) 1981 -2010 Average 3. 79 1981 -2010 Average 2. 94 The lowest on record for the period (year) 0. 49 (1987) The lowest on record for the period (year) 0. 60 (1963)

Select City Precipitation Accumulation Deficits Fargo (Accumulation Since Sep 1) Grand Forks (Accumulation Since Sep 1) Accumulation (in) Sep 1 to date (Departure from normal; Ranking) 2. 49 (-3. 65; 16 th Driest) Sep 1 to date (Departure from normal; Rank) 0. 84 (-4. 44; The Driest) 1981 -2010 Average 6. 14 1981 -2010 Average 5. 28 The lowest on record for the period (year) 1. 06 (1976) The lowest on record for the period (year) 0. 84 (2020)

Last 30 -Day Precipitation Total Accumulation % of Normal NOAA, NWS, AHPS: https: //water. weather. gov/precip/

Long Term Precipitation % of Normal Last 60 Days Last 90 Days NOAA, NWS, AHPS: https: //water. weather. gov/precip/

Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) Last 30 Days Last 60 Days (UMT Image)

Cumulative % area (% Bi-weekly Change) D 2 59% (+4) D 1 81% (+4%) DO 100% (+0%) Estimated Population in Drought Areas: 468, 415 (+26, 697) (Two-week change) D 3 7% (+0%)

Drought Change 4 -week Change 6 -month. Change

State Coverage and Intensity

Drought Severity and Coverage Index (Statewide) Highest DSCI Ever: 329 (Aug 8, 2006) Highest DSCI this season: 248 (Dec 8, 2020) 295 8/8/2017 Drought Severity and Coverage Index = ADO + 2 AD 1 + 3 AD 2 + 4 AD 3 + 5 AD 4 (Akyüz, 2007) Where: A is a % of the state covered under the corresponding D-severity Current DSCI: 248 Bi-weekly Change: +10 The most intense since 9/12/2017

Statewide Accumulated Drought Severity and Coverage ADSCI for the Current Season: 4010 31 -week Accumulation since 5/19/2020 19, 319 9, 530 10, 642 11, 991 9653 Numbers indicate the area under the DSCI Index Curve (Accumulated DSCI*) which is directly correlated with the accumulated drought impact in the state. *DSCI values are accumulated since the first week the drought category is at last D 1 anywhere in the state. 2116 1714 4, 010 Population in Drought: 468, 415 Akyuz (2017)

CPC Soil Moisture Ranking Percentile 1 % of the time the soil moisture was drier than its current state (this time of the year) https: //www. cpc. ncep. noaa. gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring/US/Soilmst. shtml#

CPC Soil Moisture Comparison (2019 -2020) 2019 2020 https: //www. cpc. ncep. noaa. gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring/US/Soilmst. shtml#

Outlooks

Week 1 Forecast (Dec 18 through 24) 7 -Day Precipitation Anomalies Forecast 7 -Day Temperature Anomalies Forecast Weather. Bell: https: //www. weatherbell. com/

Week 2 Forecast (Dec 25 through 31) 7 -Day Precipitation Anomalies Forecast 7 -Day Temperature Anomalies Forecast Weather. Bell: https: //www. weatherbell. com/