NCAR Mesoscale and Microscale Meteorology Data Assimilation in

NCAR Mesoscale and Microscale Meteorology Data Assimilation in AMPS Dale Barker S. Rizvi, and M. Duda MMM Division, NCAR Email: dmbarker@ucar. edu http: //www. mmm. ucar. edu/3 dvar April 1 st 2003

NCAR Mesoscale and Microscale Meteorology Talk Overview 1. The MM 5/WRF 3 DVAR system. 2. MM 5 3 DVAR in Alaska. 3. AMPS observation study. 4. 3 DVAR performance in AMPS. 5. Ensemble Kalman Filter in AMPS. April 1 st 2003

NCAR Mesoscale and Microscale Meteorology 1. The MM 5/WRF 3 DVar System April 1 st 2003

NCAR Mesoscale and Microscale Meteorology MM 5/WRF 3 DVAR Algorithm • Define analysis increments: xa = x b + I x’ • Solve model space, incrementalcost function: where y’ = Hx’, y o’ = y o - y. • Preconditioned control variablev analysis space (B = UUT): • Choice of background error covariance model (NCAR, NCEP). April 1 st 2003

NCAR Mesoscale and Microscale Meteorology 3 DVAR in the MM 5/WRF Modeling Systems MM 5/WRF Background Preprocessing Observation Preprocessor Background Error Calculation xb yo 3 DVAR xa B Cold-Start Mode April 1 st 2003 Update Boundary Conditions MM 5/WRF Forecast

NCAR Mesoscale and Microscale Meteorology 3 DVAR in the MM 5/WRF Modeling Systems xb Observation Preprocessor Background Error Calculation yo 3 DVAR xa B Cycling Mode April 1 st 2003 Update Boundary Conditions MM 5/WRF Forecast

NCAR Mesoscale and Microscale Meteorology 2. MM 5 3 D-Var in Alaska Courtesy of AFWA April 1 st 2003

NCAR Mesoscale and Microscale Meteorology 3 DVAR/MM 5 AFWA Alaska “T 1” Theater April 1 st 2003

NCAR Mesoscale and Microscale Meteorology MM 5 3 D-Var Comparisons: Alaska Theater (T 1) April 1 st 2003

NCAR Mesoscale and Microscale Meteorology MM 5 3 D-Var Comparisons: Alaska Theater (T 1) • MM 5 production (MVOI) compared to 3 D-Var initialized MM 5 over the Alaska Theater • Two cycles were run: 6 Z and 18 Z • Data from both cycles is averaged together • Model runs occurred between 9/7/02 and 9/15/02 • All verification is compared to observations April 1 st 2003

NCAR Mesoscale and Microscale Meteorology MM 5 3 D-Var Comparisons: Alaska Theater (T 1) April 1 st 2003

AFWA Europe “T 3 A” 45 km Verification: June 4 -July 10 2002. • 3 DVAR ( ) vs. MVOI ( ). • Verification against radiosondes: 00 hr, 12 hr, 24 hr. Height Relative Humidity

NCAR Mesoscale and Microscale Meteorology 3. AMPS Observation Study April 1 st 2003

NCAR Mesoscale and Microscale Meteorology Observations Available (September 2003) § In-Situ: - Surface (SYNOP, METAR, SHIP, BUOY). - Upper air (TEMP, PIBAL, AIREP, ACARS). § Remotely sensed retrievals: - Wind profiler. - Atmospheric Motion Vectors (SATOBS). - ATOVS thicknesses(SATEMs). - GPS total precipitable water. - GPS refractivity. - SSM/I oceanic surface wind speed and TPW. - SSM/T 1 temperature. - SSM/T 2 relative humidity. - Scatterometer (Quikscat) oceanic surface winds. - Radar radial velocity. § Radiances: - SSM/I brightness temperatures. April 1 st 2003

NCAR Mesoscale and Microscale Meteorology December 2002 AMPS Observation Statistics a) Present statistics for 30 km AMPS domain 2. b) 3 DVAR performed at 00 and 12 UTC. c) First Guess = NCEP “final” analysis. d) Total 62 analyses. April 1 st 2003

NCAR Mesoscale and Microscale Meteorology December 2002 AMPS 30 km Temperature Statistics T Good Reject % Reject Mean O-B (K) St. Dv. O-B (K) Synop 1919 118 6 0. 0134 3. 1521 Metar 979 15 2 0. 1101 2. 6628 Ships 452 30 6 -0. 0865 1. 4380 Sound 11554 95 1 0. 0029 1. 3585 Aircraft 16 19 54 0. 7754 2. 3836 Current setup: 12 hourly “cold starts” from NCEP global analysis April 1 st 2003

NCAR Mesoscale and Microscale Meteorology December 2002 AMPS 30 km Wind Statistics WIND Good Reject % Reject Mean O-B (m/s) St. Dv. O-B (m/s) Synop U 1378 272 16 0. 1064 2. 5642 Synop V 1275 375 23 0. 3804 2. 5565 Metar U 816 92 10 0. 3396 2. 4143 Metar V 712 196 22 0. 2779 3. 0824 Ship U 167 18 10 0. 3396 2. 4143 Ship V 170 15 8 0. 1552 1. 9525 Sound U 10378 131 1 -0. 0578 1. 9560 Sound V 10371 138 1 -0. 0289 2. 0858 Pilot U 46 0 0 0. 2503 2. 0571 Pilot V 46 0 0 0. 0436 2. 2041 Aircraft U 39 8 17 -0. 2501 5. 6123 Aircraft V 42 5 11 -0. 0332 5. 5312 April 1 st 2003

NCAR Mesoscale and Microscale Meteorology December 2002 Synop T, p variation by station. a) Variety of diagnostic utilities developed. b) Some stations indicate bias w. r. t. model. c) Need to update station elevations? April 1 st 2003

NCAR Mesoscale and Microscale Meteorology Preliminary Testing of MODIS (TERRA) data Data time: 12 UTC 12/01/2002 Time Window: +/- 90 minutes. QC: Reject if O-B>5 sigma_o Observation Error: 4. 5 m/s 3060 obs after QC in 45 km area. O-B mean/std. dev = 0. 53, 5. 26 m/s April 1 st 2003

NCAR Mesoscale and Microscale Meteorology Preliminary Testing of MODIS (TERRA) data MODIS O-B vs Latitude April 1 st 2003 MODIS O-B vs Pressure

NCAR Mesoscale and Microscale Meteorology Preliminary Testing of MODIS (TERRA) data 55 obs after QC in 15 km area. O-B u mean/rms = 4. 32/6. 88 m/s O-A u mean/rms = 0. 77/3. 72 m/s J / num_obs = 0. 468 April 1 st 2003

NCAR Mesoscale and Microscale Meteorology 4. 3 DVAR performance in AMPS Work performed by Syed Rizvi, Mike Duda April 1 st 2003

NCAR Mesoscale and Microscale Meteorology 3 DVAR Background Error – Vertical Eigenvectors Streamfunction Velocity Potential Conclusion: • Minor differences in streamfunction. • Very different dominant mode for velocity potential. Old (global) – above, New (AMPS) – below. April 1 st 2003

NCAR Mesoscale and Microscale Meteorology 3 DVAR Background Error – Horizontal Lengthscales Streamfunction Velocity Potential Conclusion: • “Local” lengthscales significantly shorter. • Should result in closer fit to observations. Old (global) – above, New (AMPS) – below. April 1 st 2003

NCAR 3 DVAR Single Observation Test April 1 st 2003 Mesoscale and Microscale Meteorology

NCAR Mesoscale and Microscale Meteorology 3 DVAR Single Observation Test po- pb = 1 mb, observation error = 1 mb. April 1 st 2003

NCAR Mesoscale and Microscale Meteorology 3 DVAR Single Observation Test po- pb = 1 mb, observation error = 1 mb. April 1 st 2003

NCAR Mesoscale and Microscale Meteorology 3 DVAR Analysis – 00 UTC 17 June 2003 Sea Level P, Surface Wind April 1 st 2003 T, p increment

NCAR Mesoscale and Microscale Meteorology 3 DVAR Analysis – 00 UTC 17 June 2003 Sea Level P, Surface Wind April 1 st 2003 u, v increment

NCAR Mesoscale and Microscale Meteorology AMPS Domain 1 Real-Time Verification: T+00 April 1 st 2003

NCAR Mesoscale and Microscale Meteorology AMPS Domain 1 Real-Time Verification: T+12 April 1 st 2003

NCAR Mesoscale and Microscale Meteorology AMPS Domain 1 Real-Time Verification: T+24 April 1 st 2003

NCAR Mesoscale and Microscale Meteorology AMPS Domain 1 Real-Time Verification: T+36 April 1 st 2003

NCAR Mesoscale and Microscale Meteorology Conclusions and Future Work • “Basic” 3 DVAR operational in AFWA Alaskan domain. • Antarctic December 2002 -January 2003 data collection underway (GPS, MODIS, includes tuning of ob errors). • AMPS real-time data ingest issues isolated, working on. • Initial performance of 3 DVAR in AMPS is satisfactory. • 3 DVAR/Ensemble Kalman Filter comparison begun. April 1 st 2003