NBCEC Brown Bagger Economic Selection Index Wade Shafer

NBCEC Brown Bagger: Economic Selection Index Wade Shafer American Simmental Association

Second Commandment of Beef Cattle Breeding Thou Shalt Select Superior Sires!

st 1 Step: Predicting Genetic Level Use EPDs! EPDs Anything Else

Where Do We Go From Here? MLK: 10 BKF: . 01 WBSF: -. 12 MCE: 4 CE: 2 MBL: . 2 MW: 25 REA: . 3 YW: 68 BW: 3. 2 STAY: 18 TM: 27 YG: . 2 CW: 20 WW: 35

Charting a Direction. . .

Typical Direction: Ou t u tp

More Desirable Direction: Pr t i f o

How Do We Select for Profit? Measure It!!!! Profit = $Output - $Input

Measuring Profit Economic Selection Index Profit = $Output - $Input Lanoy Hazel, 1943

Measuring Profit = (Output Traits) (Prices) - (Input Traits) (Costs) Calf Survival Weaning Weight Carcass Weight Yield Grade Marbling Salvage Weight Replacement Rate Cowherd Intake Feedlot Intake Profit = $Output - $Input

Measuring Profit Biological Assumptions üWeaning weight: 550 lb üFeedlot gain; intake: • Phase 1 (80 d): 2. 51 lb/d; 26. 86 lb/d • Phase 2 (50 d): 2. 92 lb/d; 21. 9 lb/d • Phase 3 (100 d): 3. 81 lb/d; 26. 67 lb/d üCow size: 1250 lb üMilk production: 5283 lb/lactation üPregnancy rate: 84% üDystocia heifers (direct): 20% üDystocia heifers (maternal): 20% üCalf survival: 96% üHarvest weight: 1277. 8 lb üDressing: 62. 9% üCarcass weight: 803. 7 lb üMarbling score: 5. 14 üYield grade: 2. 8 Price & Cost Assumptions: ü ü • • • • • Salvage price: $. 45/lb Hay: $. 0325/lb Pasture: $25/ac/yr Feed; fixed costs: Phase 1: $. 036/lb; $. 51/d Phase 2: $. 039/lb; $. 80/d Phase 3: $. 067/lb; $. 80/d Carcass prices: Base: $121/cwt < 550 lb: - $15/cwt > 950 lb: - $7/cwt > 1000 lb: - $17. 50/cwt Prime: + $8. 00/cwt High Choice: + $3. 50/cwt Choice: + $1. 50/cwt Select: - $11. 00/cwt Standard: - $20. 00/cwt YG 1: + $4. 00/cwt YG 2: + $2. 00/cwt YG 3: $0. 00/cwt YG 4: - $15. 00/cwt YG 5: - $20. 00/cwt

Measuring Profit: Accounting for Biological x Economic Interaction YG 1 $125 YG 2 $123 YG 3 $121 YG 4 $106 Low High Yieldin YG 5 $101 g YG 3 $121 YG 4 $106 YG 5 $101

ASA’s Economic Indexes All-Purpose Index (API)a üBred to all-aged females üRetain replacements Terminal Index (TI)a üBred to mature cows üNo replacements retained a. General Assumptions: üSires mated to Angus cow herd üIntegrated system selling on end product value üPrices/costs based on Cattle. Fax prediction models

5 Year Assessment ü Indexes have been integrated more quickly than any technology we have ever introduced ü Indexes have the potential to substantially increase the integration level of animal breeding technology Indexes are Highly Marketable!

Keys to Marketability simple work sexy

Producer Concerns: Economic parameters are unpredictable: üPrices and costs tend to maintain equilibrium over time üTend to be robust even when prices and costs not in equilibrium Indexes aren’t “validated”: ü ü ü Validated in other species Straightforward accounting process… methodology is validated Bottom line… high probability of being more effective than current “seat-of-the-pants” approach One size fits all… doesn’t fit me: üPopulation-wide indexes must necessarily cover entire production system üFew producers have data necessary to parameterize “customized” indexes üStrong correlations between “customized” indexes üCustomized indexes aren’t as marketable…reducing integration