Navy Earth System Prediction Capability Current and Future

Navy Earth System Prediction Capability Current and Future from THORPEX Perspective Melinda Peng Marine Meteorology Division THORPEX Planning Meeting June 5 -6 2015

NAVY RESEARCH FOCUS AREA 1. Assure Access to the Maritime Battlespace Vision: Assure access to the global ocean and littoral reaches and hold strategic and tactical targets at risk. Sense and predict environmental properties in the global ocean and littorals to support tactical and strategic planning and operations. Improve operational performance by adapting systems to the current and evolving environment.

Navy Science & Technology Vision • Pursue revolutionary, game-changing capabilities for Naval forces of the future, • Mature and transition S&T advances to improve existing Naval capabilities, • Respond quickly to current Fleet and Force critical needs. The METOC needs address the requirement for generating timely and accurate forecasts of the earth environment through the application of accurate and efficient numerical weather prediction systems Exploratory Development Basic Researc h 6. 2 6. 1 Implementati on Advanced Developm ent 6. 3/6. 4 Ops Demonstratio n/ Validation

General Approach on Basic Research • Identify emerging needs and opportunities • Theoretical & conceptual developments • Usage of Navy core environmental prediction systems as research tools • Idealized simulations for fundamental understanding • Participations in field experiments • Collaborations with the scientific community • Applications to 6. 2 and 6. 4 programs in mind

FIELD EXPERIMENTS Participations in field experiments play an important role in the R & D • • • Initiate, lead, and participate in international field experiments Provide platform supports Provide real-time NWP products Provide real-time optimal sampling strategies Verification of theories and hypothesis Validation of NWP models (6. 2 -6. 4 R&D) ITOP T-REX T-PARC/TCS-08 VOCAL SAANGRIA

Overview of Navy/NRL Systems Observational Data (FNMOC) Data Assimilation (Adv MW/IR, OMPS) (NAVDAS-AR/NAVDAS/COAMPS-AR) Global EFS Coupled NAVGEM/HYCOM/ CICE/WWIII (ESPC) Global Forecast System (NAVGEM/NAAPS) NUOPC NOGAPS/COAMPS OBS Impact Mesoscale EFS Coupled EFS Mesoscale Forecast System (COAMPS/COAMPS-TC) Ocean/Wave Forecast System (COAMPS/NCOM/SWAN/WWIII) COAMPS-OS TDA Systems 6

INVESTMENT STRATEGY Enhance and expand capabilities through leveraging developments in other NRL divisions Atmosphere (Marine Meteorology) Ocean, Wave, Ice (Oceanography) Satellite Data (Remote Sensing) CFD modeling (Lab for CPFD) Acoustic waves (Acoustics) Upper Atmosphere (Space Science) Information Technology (Info Tech) EM propagation (Radar)

INVESTMENT STRATEGY Enhance and expand capabilities through national and international collaborations DYNAMO NUOPC HFIP/HIWPP ONR DRIs ESPC NRL JCSDA YOTC THORPEX

Seamless Suite of Forecasts - Decadal Variability Outlook Multi-monthly Guidance Seasons Months Threats Forecast Lead Time Assessments Forecast Uncertainty Years Boundary Conditions 2 Weeks 1 Week Watches Warnings & Alert Coordination Intra-Seasonal Variability Days Hours Initial Conditions Environment State/Local Planning Commerce Health Energy Ecosystem Recreation Reservoir Control Agriculture Hydropower Fire Weather Transportation Benefits Space Operation Flood Mitigation & Navigation Protection of Life & Property Minutes

ESPC Demonstrations for IOC (2018) (10 Days to 1 -2 years time scale) • Extreme Weather Events: Predictability of Blocking Events and Related High Impact Weather at Lead Times of 1 -6 Weeks (Stan Benjamin, NOAA/ESRL) • Extended lead-time for TC Predictions: Predictability of Tropical Cyclone Likelihood, Mean Track, and Intensity from Weekly to Seasonal Timescales (Melinda Peng, NRL MRY) • Coastal Seas: Predictability of Circulation, Hypoxia, and Harmful Algal Blooms at Lead Times of 1 -6 Weeks (Gregg Jacobs, NRL SSC) • Arctic Sea Ice Extent and Seasonal Ice Free Dates: Predictability from Weekly to Seasonal Timescales (Phil Jones, LANL) • Open Ocean: Predictability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) from Monthly to Decadal Timescales for Improved Weather and Climate Forecasts (Jim Richman, NRL SSC)

ESPC Coupling Infrastructure Develop the next generation fully coupled system ATM NUOPC_Model (Multiphase Intialize, Run, Finalize) NUOPC_Mediator (flux calculations) NUOPC_Connector (connect export state to import state, compute & execute regrid and data routing) MED ICE Active models can be “live” or “data” LND OCN WAV Producer Consumer based inter-model connections ESMF/NUOPC interface layer is being implemented into each of the Navy relevant models (NAVGEM, HYCOM, WWIII, CICE).

Operational Implementation Design Projected horizontal and vertical resolutions of the individual ESPC system components at the IOC in 2018. Forecast Time Scale, Frequency Atmosphere NAVGEM Ocean HYCOM Ice CICE Waves WW 3 Land-Surface NAVGEM-LSM Aerosol NAAPS Deterministic short term 0 -10 days, daily 20 km 80 levels (T 639 L 80) 1/25° (4. 5 km) 41 layers 1/25° (4. 5 km) 1/8° (14 km) 3/16° (21 km) Deterministic long term 0 -30 days, weekly 20 km 80 levels (T 639 L 80) 1/12° (9 km) 41 layers 1/12° (9 km) 1/4° (28 km) 3/16° (21 km) Probabilistic long term 0 -90 days, weekly 37 km 50 levels (T 359 L 50) 1/12° (9 km) 41 layers 1/12° (9 km) 1/4° (28 km) 1/3° (37 km)

Summary • US Navy operates globally • NRL’s mission to meet the requirement of the Do. D/Navy environmental information dominance fits into the core of THORPEX vision • NRL has been a major player in THORPEX • Navy/ONR/NRL focus on future prediction capability in expanded space and time frame is in line with the new focus of THORPEX and emerging needs of the nation