Natural Resources Canada Ressources naturelles Canada CFS Canadian

Natural Resources Canada Ressources naturelles Canada CFS Canadian Forest Service Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Forest Growth and Yield Xinbiao Zhu CIF-NL-AGM St John’s, NL November 12– 14, 2014

Natural Resources Canada CFS Ressources naturelles Canada Canadian Forest Service Forest Planning System Forest inventory (stand type, site quality…) AAC Decision variables LP Planning periods (5 yrs) Planning horizon (160 yrs) Management strategies Objective functions (management goals, Constraints) Coefficients G & Y curves Stocking level Species composition Age structure Harvest schedule

Natural Resources Canada Ressources naturelles Canada CFS GIS forestry inventory Canadian Forest Service

Natural Resources Canada Ressources naturelles Canada CFS Canadian Forest Service Sources of forest growth & yield curves Stand table projection model (stand simulator): • Best possible regression equations link growth and influencing factors derived from PSP data, and calibrated using TSP data. • Calculate periodic recruitment, increment and survival of tree cohort (defined by species, DBH, and age). • Project overall stand development over time based on characterising the stand structure at the start of the projection period (initial condition). • A conventional stand table format is used to define structure of a stand on a specific site at any point in time. • Simplicity, relative accuracy in prediction of volume growth, largely used in forest industry for timber supply analysis and management planning. • Require no climate data in projection of stand development (assuming that tree growth conditions remain constant over time).

Natural Resources Canada Ressources naturelles Canada CFS Canadian Forest Service Process-based forest growth model Physiological process-based growth model: • Key physiological processes are driven by climate and soil variables that define tree growth and biomass yield. • Complex data of many parameters for calibration, validation, and prediction. • Don’t have the same accuracy as empirical G & Y model. • Need professional expertise to calibrate and use. • Useful tools in research of climate change impacts, but rarely suitable for practical forestry. Forest gap model: • Key physiological processes are simplified and driven by climate and soil variables that define tree growth and biomass yield. • Less parameters for calibration, validation, and prediction. • Don’t have the same accuracy as empirical G & Y model. • Need professional expertise to calibrate and use. • Popular tools in research of climate change impacts, but rarely suitable for practical forestry.

Natural Resources Canada Ressources naturelles Canada CFS Jabowa III forest gap model Initial Stand Condition (PSPs) DBH, Height, Species Site Conditions (PSPs) Elevation, Latitude, Soil texture, Soil rock percentage, Soil depth, Soil fertility status, Root depth, Depth of water table Historical weather records Future climate change scenarios Temperature Precipitation Canadian Forest Service

CFS Composition of the Atmosphere and Radiative Forcing Natural Resources Canada Ressources naturelles Canada PERMANENT GASES VARIABLE GASES Gas Percent (by volume) Dry air Gas Percent (by volume) PPM N 2 78. 08 H 2 O 0 to 4 O 2 20. 95 CO 2 0. 0391 Ar 0. 93 (<1%) CH 4 0. 00017 1. 7 Ne 0. 0018 N 2 O 0. 00003 0. 3 He 0. 0005 O 3 0. 000004 0. 04 H 2 0. 00006 *CFCs 0. 00000002 0. 0002 Xe 0. 000009 *F-gases (HFC, PFC, SF 6) Canadian Forest Service

Natural Resources Canada CFS Ressources naturelles Canada Canadian Forest Service IPCC scenario development process Socioeconomic scenarios • Population • GDP • Energy • Industry • Transportation • Agriculture • … Emission scenarios • GHGs Aerosols & VOCs… • Land use & land cover Radiative forcing scenarios to GCM • Atmospheric concentration • Global carbon cycle • Atmospheric chemistry Global climate model (GCM) scenarios • Temperature • Humidity • Soil moisture • Extreme events • … IPCC Assessment Reports: 1990 SR 90, 1992 IS 92, 2000 SAR, TAR, 2007 AR 4, 2013 AR 5 Others: academic (1/2/4 x. CO 2), Stabilization Pathways (S, SRE, SP), etc.

Natural Resources Canada CFS Ressources naturelles Canada GCM calibration IPCC AR 5 Report Canadian Forest Service

Natural Resources Canada CFS Ressources naturelles Canada Canadian Forest Service IPCC 2013 AR 5 Scenarios Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) Name RCP 2. 6 RCP 4. 5 RCP 6. 0 RCP 8. 5 Radiative forcing ~2. 6 W m-2, peak b/w 2010 -2020 ~4. 5 W m-2, peak at 2010 ~6. 0 W m-2, peak at 2080 ~8. 0 W m-2, rising in 21 st century CO 2 - equiv. emissions ~490 ppm Pathway AR 5 surface temperature projections (o. C) 2046 – 2065 2081 - 2100 Mean & range 1. 0 (0. 4 -1. 6) ~650 ppm peak & decline stabilization ~850 ppm stabilization 1. 3 (0. 8 – 1. 8) 2. 2 (1. 4 – 3. 1) >1, 370 ppm rising 1. 0 (0. 3 -1. 7) 1. 4 (0. 9 – 2. 0) 1. 8 (1. 1 – 2. 6) 2. 0 (1. 4 – 2. 6) 3. 7 (2. 6 – 4. 8) (Moss et al. , Nature 2010, IPCC AR 5 2013)

Natural Resources Canada Ressources naturelles Canada Outputs from GCMs CFS Canadian Forest Service

Natural Resources Canada Ressources naturelles Canada Outputs from GCMs CFS Canadian Forest Service

Natural Resources Canada Ressources naturelles Canada GCM Resolution • • CGCM 3 T 47 has a resolution of 4. 7 o Latitude x 4. 7 o Longitude (map grids) Wood supply analysis is based on ecoregion. CFS Canadian Forest Service

CFS GCM Outputs vs. Observed Data Natural Resources Canada Ressources naturelles Canada Port Aux Basque Deer Lake Corner Brook St. Anthony Canadian Forest Service

CFS GCM Outputs vs. Observed Data Natural Resources Canada Ressources naturelles Canada Port Aux Basque Corner Brook Deer Lake St. Anthony Canadian Forest Service

CFS A Downscaling Technique (Weather Generator) Natural Resources Canada Ressources naturelles Canada Canadian Forest Service Inputs: historical weather records (30 years) Solar radiation air temperature precipitation Distribution of dry & wet days Mean temp standard deviation dry/wet days Distribution of dry & wet length Seasonal cycles of MEANS and STDEVs are modeled with Fourier Series Outputs: synthetic surface weather (30 years) Solar radiation air temperature precipitation

CFS Downscaled Minimum Temperature Natural Resources Canada Ressources naturelles Canada Canadian Forest Service Port Aux Basque Corner Brook Deer Lake St. Anthony

CFS Downscaled Precipitation Natural Resources Canada Ressources naturelles Canada Port Aux Basque Deer Lake Corner Brook St. Anthony Canadian Forest Service

Natural Resources Canada Ressources naturelles Canada Spatial interpolation of downscaled climate data • Prepare database (daily minimum and maximum temperature, precipitation, solar radiation*) for all sites. • Temperature adjustment based on the lapse rate (6 o. C/km ) before and after applying the GIS surface interpolation. CFS Canadian Forest Service

Natural Resources Canada Ressources naturelles Canada Converting data to the required format for JABOWA III forest gap model Deer Lake – Baseline – 1961 -1990

Natural Resources Canada Ressources naturelles Canada CFS Jabowa III forest gap model Initial Stand Condition (PSPs) DBH, Height, Species Site Conditions (PSPs) Elevation, Latitude, Soil texture, Soil rock percentage, Soil depth, Soil fertility status, Root depth, Depth of water table Historical weather records Future climate change scenarios Temperature Precipitation Canadian Forest Service

Natural Resources Canada CFS Ressources naturelles Canada Model calibration and simulation Historical climate data 1960 - 2011 PSP tree list Initial stand condition AR 5 climate change scenarios 2008 - 2100 JABOWA-III Gap Model Calibration PSP growth data – historical Simulated growth – Historical Simulated growth – RCP 2. 6 Simulated growth – RCP 4. 5 Simulated growth – RCP 6. 0 Simulated growth – RCP 8. 5 Canadian Forest Service

Natural Resources Canada CFS Ressources naturelles Canada Model Calibration Balsam fir Immature balsam fir (Plot number 187005, District 14) Balsam fir White birch Canadian Forest Service

Natural Resources Canada Ressources naturelles Canada Simulated basal Area Balsam fir – Avalon Ecoregion Simulation Period (1 = 5 yrs) CFS Canadian Forest Service

Natural Resources Canada Ressources naturelles Canada Simulated stand volume Balsam fir – Central Ecoregion Simulation Period (1 = 5 yrs) CFS Canadian Forest Service

Natural Resources Canada CFS Ressources naturelles Canada Canadian Forest Service Estimate of climate change impacts Historical climate data 1960 - 2011 PSP tree list Initial stand condition AR 5 climate change scenarios 2008 - 2100 JABOWA-III Gap Model Calibration PSP growth data – historical Simulated growth – Historical Simulated growth – RCP 2. 6 Simulated growth – RCP 4. 5 Simulated growth – RCP 6. 0 Simulated growth – RCP 8. 5 Calculation of climate change modifiers Strata-based climate change modifiers– RCP 2. 6 Strata-based climate change modifiers– RCP 4. 5 Strata-based climate change modifiers– RCP 6. 0 Strata-based climate change modifiers– RCP 8. 5

Natural Resources Canada Ressources naturelles Canada CFS Canadian Forest Service Climate Change Modifiers Province Average RCP 2. 6 Year 0 1 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 RCP b. S b. F w. S w. B t. L 4. 5 b. S b. F w. S w. B t. L 8. 5 b. S b. F w. S w. B t. L RCP RCP RCP RCP 2. 6 2. 6 Year 4. 5 4. 5 Year 8. 5 8. 5 1. 000 1. 000 0 1. 000 0. 971 0. 954 0. 998 0. 906 0. 904 1 0. 970 0. 942 1. 010 0. 904 0. 901 1 0. 951 0. 921 0. 992 0. 891 0. 901 0. 912 0. 910 0. 876 0. 956 0. 918 5 0. 880 0. 865 0. 863 0. 941 0. 855 5 0. 843 0. 743 0. 844 0. 903 0. 889 0. 882 0. 908 0. 907 0. 905 0. 825 10 0. 820 0. 793 0. 806 0. 892 0. 830 10 0. 773 0. 697 0. 788 0. 821 0. 781 0. 852 0. 861 0. 777 0. 929 0. 833 15 0. 791 0. 773 0. 758 0. 873 0. 812 15 0. 716 0. 626 0. 691 0. 822 0. 695 0. 833 0. 850 0. 819 0. 908 0. 770 20 0. 767 0. 737 0. 765 0. 873 0. 793 20 0. 685 0. 592 0. 730 0. 809 0. 634 0. 829 0. 827 0. 782 0. 932 0. 759 25 0. 752 0. 732 0. 911 0. 745 25 0. 654 0. 582 0. 695 0. 831 0. 613 0. 835 0. 839 0. 774 0. 898 0. 760 30 0. 747 0. 721 0. 716 0. 902 0. 754 30 0. 641 0. 583 0. 662 0. 786 0. 728 0. 834 0. 841 0. 775 0. 908 0. 742 35 0. 732 0. 715 0. 713 0. 890 0. 756 35 0. 625 0. 528 0. 628 0. 822 0. 748 0. 833 0. 810 0. 756 0. 898 0. 675 40 0. 716 0. 711 0. 714 0. 915 0. 800 40 0. 612 0. 500 0. 614 0. 869 0. 696 0. 822 0. 803 0. 720 1. 018 0. 558 45 0. 703 0. 658 0. 688 1. 114 0. 658 45 0. 596 0. 455 0. 606 1. 031 0. 550 0. 827 0. 786 0. 693 1. 284 0. 512 50 0. 700 0. 632 0. 656 1. 463 0. 673 50 0. 589 0. 436 0. 583 1. 068 0. 439 0. 839 0. 780 0. 637 0. 772 0. 452 55 0. 705 0. 611 0. 645 0. 765 0. 696 55 0. 577 0. 411 0. 556 0. 650 0. 441 0. 843 0. 774 0. 631 0. 796 0. 364 60 0. 703 0. 592 0. 631 0. 796 0. 703 60 0. 559 0. 398 0. 541 0. 657 0. 459 0. 849 0. 768 0. 615 0. 821 0. 343 65 0. 703 0. 586 0. 606 0. 833 0. 501 65 0. 550 0. 386 0. 518 0. 657 0. 486 0. 855 0. 763 0. 606 0. 867 0. 308 70 0. 704 0. 581 0. 588 0. 899 0. 256 70 0. 544 0. 378 0. 502 0. 644 0. 529 0. 860 0. 759 0. 601 1. 024 0. 239 75 0. 704 0. 576 0. 566 1. 381 0. 258 75 0. 537 0. 369 0. 484 1. 186 0. 615 0. 865 0. 758 0. 588 0. 997 0. 024 80 0. 704 0. 570 0. 542 1. 320 0. 138 80 0. 530 0. 360 0. 465 1. 149 0. 449 0. 871 0. 757 0. 572 1. 082 850 0. 705 0. 563 0. 510 1. 366 0 85 0. 524 0. 352 0. 427 1. 099 0. 302 0. 876 0. 755 0. 562 1. 160 900 0. 704 0. 556 0. 483 1. 588 0 90 0. 517 0. 344 0. 386 1. 068 0. 143

Natural Resources Canada Ressources naturelles Canada Climate Modifiers CFS Canadian Forest Service

Natural Resources Canada Ressources naturelles Canada Climate Modifiers CFS Canadian Forest Service

Natural Resources Canada Ressources naturelles Canada CFS Canadian Forest Service Yield curves x Climate modifiers Original yield curves Climate modifiers

Natural Resources Canada Ressources naturelles Canada CFS Climate-modified yield curves Canadian Forest Service

Natural Resources Canada CFS Ressources naturelles Canada Canadian Forest Service Forest Planning System Forest inventory (stand type, site quality…) AAC Decision variables LP Planning periods (5 yrs) Planning horizon (160 yrs) Management strategies Objective functions (management goals, Constraints) Coefficients Modified G & Y curves Stocking level Species composition Age structure Harvest schedule

Natural Resources Canada Ressources naturelles Canada CFS Canadian Forest Service Acknowledgement • CFSI and IBES funded the project through graduate student fellowship • UNB colleagues provide supervision of graduate student activities • NRCan colleagues provide downscaled climate change scenarios data

Natural Resources Canada Ressources naturelles Canada CFS Canadian Forest Service Thank You!