Natural and SocioEconomic Systems NATCOM CLIMATE CHANGE VULNERABILITY
Natural and Socio-Economic Systems NATCOM
CLIMATE CHANGE VULNERABILITY AND ADAPTATON
V & A activity under NATCOM w Climate projections from GCMs and RCMs n Projections of temperature, rainfall, extreme events w Assessment of impacts and Vulnerability; different sectors n Water resources n Agriculture/crop production n Forests and natural ecosystems n Coastal zones n Industry, energy and infrastructure n Health w Preliminary assessment of adaptation strategies w Identify constraints to V&A assessments and
Features / Limitations w Impact assessment is made using climate change projections from a single model outputs (RCM Had RM 2) and IS 92 a scenario w Uncertainty of projections of climate parameters at regional level w Limitations of models in assessing sectoral impacts at regional level (forests, crop production, water) w Limited data availability for modeling w Limited time (<12 months) and resources PRELIMINARY V&A ASSESSMENTS
All-India Observed Mean Surface Temperatures (1901 -2000)
Trends in observed rainfall (%deviation from mean) for the period 1813 -2000
Projections of seasonal surface air temperature for the period 2041 -60 using Had. RM 2 Maximum temperature: increase by 2 -4°C during 2050 s in regions above 25 o. N. Minimum temperature: Increase up to 4 o. C all over the country.
Projections of seasonal precipitation for the period 2041 -60 Monsoon Rainfall: marginal changes in monsoon months (JJAS) : Large changes during non-monsoon months
Extreme Rainfall Projections number of rainy days rainy day intensity (mm/day)
Water resources Based on SWAT model - Change (%) in water balance for Control and GHG climate scenarios in 12 river basins
Key Vulnerable regions Figure 3. 21 Acute physical water scarce conditions Constant water scarcities and shortage Seasonal / regular water stressed conditions Rare water shortages
Impacts of climate change on Agriculture Projection of a general decrease in rice yield with increase in temperature Wheat yield is projected to decline from 4% to 24% in different regions - under scenario 2 x. CO 2 and 2 o C warming Reduction in yields of several dry-land crops - at 2 x CO 2 & 3 o C rise in temperature, accompanied with reduction in rainfall Loss in farm-level net revenue predicted
Forestry Sector National level modeling undertaken to assess impacts of climate change on forest ecosystems; § applying the climate projections derived from Had. RM 2 § using BIOME 3 vegetation response model Shift in forest types / boundary: 75% of grids with forests are expected experience changes in forest types Productivity: Increase in net primary productivity (NPP) in more than 75% of the grids with forests Biodiversity: Climate change is projected to increase species losses, particularly due to shift in forest boundaries Present vegetation map Expected biome types under climate projections in 2050 s. Dry savannah Xeric Shrub land Xeric woodland Tropical Seasonal Forest Present Biome Types under CTL run Boreal Evergreen Tundra
Natural Ecosystems Broad preliminary national level assessment of impact of climate change on natural ecosystems (no modeling attempted) Results Grasslands: Under enhanced CO 2 and increase in temperature, C 4 species are likely to have a predominance over C 3 plants. Mangroves: Mangroves just next to the sea will be submerged due to SLR and plants with high salinity tolerance will survive Increased glacier-melt bringing larger quantities of fresh water will favor mangrove species with least tolerance to salinity Present distribution of natural ecosystems in India Coral reefs: Increase in temperature would lead to bleaching of Corals and submergence due to SLR
Coastal Zones w. Current vulnerability of different coastal districts to sea level rise assessed w. Increased frequency of cyclonic storms projected are likely to impact; settlements, agriculture, infrastructure, etc. w. Sea level rise predicted is likely to; displace people, affect agriculture, livelihoods, infrastructure etc. Vulnerable areas along the Indian Coast due to SLR
Health: An Overview Impact of climate change on incidence of malaria in India is assessed Results It is projected that by 2080 s, malaria will penetrate elevations above 1800 meters and some coastal areas. 10% more states may offer climatic opportunities for malaria vector breeding throughout the year. The transmission windows will increase in some states Transmission windows of malaria in different states of India (a) in 2000 and (b) in 2080
V&A studies- Energy and Infrastructure Currently climate change is not an issue in infrastructure development projects, which have a long life These assets are vulnerable to extreme events like, cyclones, heavy rains, landslides, etc. , the frequency of which may increase in the later half of the century due to climate change. Infrastructure would be vulnerable to these events. Climate change impacts may affect project performance, feasibility and costs Case Study of Konkan Railway - Rainfall intensity >20 cms; lead to land slides, flooding - Climate projections show increased rainfall intentisity
Adaptation Strategies w Preliminary assessments made for different sectors; including assessment of current policies and programmes and implication for vulnerability w Most technologies & measures to address current stresses are also relevant to adapt to climate change (water, forest, agriculture, etc. ) w Additional technologies & measures needed to address climate impacts w Further analysis needed to identify; adaptation technologies, measures, institutions, financial
Future; V & A w Need for improved and reliable regional climate models and climate projections for impact assessment w Need for improved climate change impact or response models - Sectoral, Regional, & Integrated - Incorporation of adaptation options in models w Appropriate data generation for modeling w Assessment of impacts at regional level & identification of vulnerable regions, socioeconomic systems w Development of adaptation strategies w Networking of institutions, capacity building, sustained research teams
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