NATO Strategic Direction South Projecting Stability NATO CIMIC
“NATO Strategic Direction South – Projecting Stability” NATO CIMIC Community of Interest Conference 2018, Rome SYNDICATE 7 Horizon Scanning: Building an information network for NATO Strategic Direction South
“NATO Strategic Direction South – Projecting Stability” NATO CIMIC Community of Interest Conference 2018, Rome Initial Brainstorming Questions • Understanding the meaning and scope of “horizon scanning” • What information is needed? • Which actors should be involved? • What are limitations and risks? • How can CIMIC contribute to the network?
“NATO Strategic Direction South – Projecting Stability” NATO CIMIC Community of Interest Conference 2018, Rome Horizon Scanning Objectives • Identify factors / drivers / root causes for (in)stability • Elements of stability versus triggers of instability Horizon scanning as part of the mission of the Southern Hub (NSD-S Hub)
“NATO Strategic Direction South – Projecting Stability” NATO CIMIC Community of Interest Conference 2018, Rome Factors / Drivers of (In)Stability Main Categories • PMESII (Political, Military, Economic, Social, Information, Infrastructure) To Consider • Who is and should be looking at factors? • Who is able to asses a specific situation? • Who is ensuring complete coverage by criteria of stability? • Using ASCOPE (Area, Structure, Culture, Organization, Persons, Events)
“NATO Strategic Direction South – Projecting Stability” NATO CIMIC Community of Interest Conference 2018, Rome Factors / Drivers of (In)Stability More Detailed List • Understanding culture • Leadership perceptions • Ethnic tensions • Civilian perceptions • Key-leaders • Gov’t structures/institutions • State resilience • Historic trends and understanding • Operating patterns • Education • Employment level • Religious influence • Anthropology – understanding the society
“NATO Strategic Direction South – Projecting Stability” NATO CIMIC Community of Interest Conference 2018, Rome Strengths • • CIMIC assets (“boots on the ground” for the Hub) Mutual trust / confidence Using current capacities / planning procedures from a PS dimension Support the decision making process • • Existing resilience Early warning system Future Mission Network & Civ. Mil Exchange products Understanding of Comprehensive Approach
“NATO Strategic Direction South – Projecting Stability” NATO CIMIC Community of Interest Conference 2018, Rome Weaknesses • Too many actors leads to duplication of efforts (lack of coordination/info sharing) • Negative perception of NATO by Non-Military Actors and Partner Nations • Political barriers to info-sharing among Allies/with Partners • Governmental/organizational interests • Definition of rules of information sharing • Difficulty of predicting outcomes
“NATO Strategic Direction South – Projecting Stability” NATO CIMIC Community of Interest Conference 2018, Rome Opportunities • Info-sharing platforms, regular meetings/conferences/workshops • Building relationships • with international/regional organizations (AU, EU, GCC, LAS, UN, 5+5 initiative) • think-tanks (including in the region) • civilian universities, defense institutes in the region • others • Exploit existing tools already used by other actors • Expand Comprehensive Approach • Consider regional context • Optimized allocation of resources (by increasing coordination and avoiding duplication)
“NATO Strategic Direction South – Projecting Stability” NATO CIMIC Community of Interest Conference 2018, Rome Threats • Need to know versus need to share • Corruption / criminality • Information sharing perceived as intelligence collection • Criminal networks • Regional impact
“NATO Strategic Direction South – Projecting Stability” NATO CIMIC Community of Interest Conference 2018, Rome Main Line of Effort 1. 2. 3. 4. • • • Actor Mapping Selection Key Outreach Activities Engagement Seminars, conferences Common understanding Database of actors Confidence building Mo. Us, TAs, contracts SMEs (think tanks, academia) Strategic Key Leaders (regional, local) NMAs (IOs, GOs, NGOs) Allies and Partners Key Stakeholders • Communication platform • Information management system • Mutual trust Network Building Resources Outputs Time Scales • Current activities: Mapping and outreach (cyclical activity) • Future activities: Building communication platform, engagement
“NATO Strategic Direction South – Projecting Stability” NATO CIMIC Community of Interest Conference 2018, Rome Enablers and Blockers • Enablers • Existing networks • Existing information sharing tools • … • Blockers • National caveats for information sharing • Political crisis • Conflicting interests/agendas among stakeholders
“NATO Strategic Direction South – Projecting Stability” NATO CIMIC Community of Interest Conference 2018, Rome “Thank You for Your Attention” “Grazie per l’attenzione”
- Slides: 12