National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office Mobile Pensacola

National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office Mobile - Pensacola Special Briefing Tropical Storm Lee 4 PM CDT Sunday 4 September 2011

Tropical Storm Lee Satellite Imagery • Center of Lee moving slowly northeast over southern Louisiana. • Rain-bands continue to develop over southeast Louisiana and will move slowly east across SE Mississippi, southern Alabama and the western Florida panhandle late today and tonight. It will likely add an additional 4 to 7 inches of rainfall to what we have already seen. • Tropical storm force winds (>=39 mph) extend eastward 120 miles from the center and 240 miles to the southeast.

Storm Reports Sat PM-Sun PM NWS Doppler Radar Storm Total Precipitation (inches) 1 AM Thursday through 3 PM Sunday 10 to 12 inches • 10 to 12 inches of rain in spots across portions of SE MS, Coastal AL, and NW FL. • Brief tornadoes produced localized damage in Mobile, Baldwin, and Escambia County FL. • Several reports of trees down, large limbs down, and minor damage to structures from wind gusts. • Minor coastal flooding reported in Mobile and Escambia counties • Bayou La Batre, Dog River area in AL, Fort Pickens Road flooded near Pensacola with 2 -3 ft of water and sand. • Several reports of wind gusts between 50 mph and 61 mph observed at several locations along the coastal counties this AM (in heavy rain squalls).

Current Watches, Warnings and Advisories Tropical Storm Warning Flash Flood Watch in effect all counties. Local Impact Forecast Statements will provide detailed impact information from the NWS

NWS Mobile Local Impacts Statements

Tropical Storm Lee Forecast Track

Tropical Storm Force Wind Speed Probabilities

Projected Impact Assessment Sunday Through Monday For SE Mississippi, SW Alabama and NW Florida WFO Mobile Extreme High Moderate Low Low None Rip Rainwater Currents Flood Beach Erosion Tornado Surge Wind Coastal Flood

Heavy Rain Impacts • Flooding threat continues through tonight and Monday as an additional 3 to 6 inches of rainfall will be possible. Some locations will receive higher amounts where training of storm cells occur. Moderate Butler Flooding Threat Grove Hill Monroeville Greenville Waynesboro Evergreen Leakesville Mobile Andalusia Crestview Wiggins NWS Mobile - Pensacola Projected Additional Rain Totals (SUN PM 4 SEP -TUE AM 6 SEP) Pensacola Destin Gulf Shores • Higher threat of flooding over SE Mississippi, coastal Alabama and the western Florida panhandle. • Flooding of small streams and poor draining areas probable. • Several river systems will quickly rise to minor flood stage Monday into Tuesday. • Bayou Sara (AL) • Leaf River (MS) • Tombigbee River (AL) • Chickasawhay River (MS) • Shoal River (FL)

Tornado Impacts • We will have to be alert for quick development of short lived tornadoes in stronger rotating thunderstorm cells in bands on the eastern side of Tropical Storm Lee through Monday. • Tornado Watch in effect. Expect the threat of brief tornadoes to continue into Monday. • Any brief tornadoes will develop quickly and move from the south to the north at 40 mph. • Some tornadoes may develop with little advanced warning.

Coastal Flood and Beach Impacts High Risk of Dangerous Rip Currents • LIFE THREATENING RIP CURRENTS and breaking waves in the surf zone of 7 to 10 feet are expected through Monday. • Large wave run-up to the dunes expected at the beaches during high tide in the early morning hours. Some minor beach erosion possible. • Tides currently observed to be 2 to 3 feet above our normal astronomical tide. • Minor COASTAL FLOODING of 1 to 3 feet above ground level is possible near the coast during period of high tide. • High tide will occur early Monday morning.

Marine Impacts …Tropical Storm Warning Remains in Effect… • South winds 25 to 35 knots with occasional gusts to 50 knots in squalls. • Offshore seas 11 to 16 feet. Rough in the bays and sounds with waves 3 to 4 feet. • Conditions not likely improving significantly until Tuesday.

Specific NWS Wind Forecast Tonight 6 PM CDT Sunday 6 AM CDT Monday 15 G 25 KT 20 G 35 KT 15 G 30 KT 25 G 40 KT 35 G 45 KT • Winds 30 mph with gusts of 55 mph possible in squalls. 25 G 35 KT 30 G 40 KT 35 G 45 KT Rain soaked grounds will result in some trees getting uprooted as the stronger rain squalls and thunderstorms move through. We will also see brief tornado development and minor structural damage with the wind squalls.

Specific NWS Wind Forecast Monday Noon CDT Monday 6 PM CDT Monday 20 G 30 KT 25 G 35 KT 15 G 30 KT 25 G 35 KT 30 G 40 KT 35 G 45 KT • Winds 30 mph with gusts of 50 mph possible in squalls. 25 G 35 KT 35 G 40 KT Rain soaked grounds will result in some trees getting uprooted as the stronger rain squalls and thunderstorms move through.

Specific NWS Wind Forecast Tuesday 6 AM CDT Tuesday 5 G 10 KT 15 G 25 KT 15 G 30 KT 6 PM CDT Tuesday 20 G 30 KT 25 G 35 KT • Winds will become northwesterly and diminish during the day. 5 G 10 KT 10 G 20 KT 15 G 25 KT

Central Alabama Hazards • Tonight – Rain bands will continue to rotate farther north. Rain amounts from 1 - 2 inches, locally higher amounts associated with bands. Concern for a few tropical tornadoes. Highest threat south of a Gainesville-Prattville. Eufaula line. • Monday-Tuesday – Best chance for heavy rain, gusty winds and small tornadoes. Additional rain totals from 2 -3 inches far east to 8 inches across the west and north. • Main concerns: • Possible flash flooding where persistent locally heavy rain areas exist…especially in urban areas • Tropical tornadic development this evening possibly into Tuesday • Gusty winds… 10 -20 mph with gusts to 30 by Monday • Potential for more widespread minor river flooding by mid week.

To Contact the NWS • Web… – http: //www. srh. noaa. gov/mob • Facebook… – http: //www. facebook. com/US. National. Weather. Service. Mobile. gov