National Weather Service Local Forecast Office Operations Jeff

National Weather Service Local Forecast Office Operations Jeff Cupo Barry Goldsmith Chad Omitt Mike Seaman

What we will cover… • • • National Weather Service Organization Local Forecast Office Responsibilities Forecast Process Severe Weather Operations Tropical Cyclone Operations

NWS Organization Department of Commerce (DOC) National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Weather Service (NWS) 122 Local Weather Forecast Offices 13 River Forecast Centers Center Weather Service Units National Hurricane Center Storm Prediction Center Hydrologic Prediction Center Aviation Weather Center Climate Prediction Center 4 other national centers

122 NWS Field Offices

NWS Mission - Why we are here… • For the protection of life and property and the enhancement of the national economy • NWS provides weather, hydrologic, and climate forecasts and warnings for the United States • NWS data and products form a national information database and infrastructure which can be used by other governmental agencies, the private sector, the public, and the global community.

What we do… Maintain a continuous weather watch, producing forecasts and warnings 24/7 Routine Forecasts Long Fuse Watches and Convective Watches Warnings and Warnings Hydro-meteorological Observations and Climate Information Public Winter Weather Tornado River observations, forecasts and warnings Aviation High Wind Severe Thunderstorm Climate Summaries Fire Weather Frost/Freeze Flash Flood Records Excessive Heat Marine Tropical Cyclone Special Marine

The Forecast Process Forecasters analyze / interpret varied datasets to develop a 4 -dimensional picture of the atmosphere: • Observations • Analysis • Diagnosis • Prognosis • Communication

Forecast Funnel Planetary Scale (Long-Wave Pattern) Synoptic Scale (cyclones/fronts) Mesoscale (thunderstorms) Local Effects (terrain) Local Forecast

Observe, Analyze, and Diagnose The Current State of the Atmosphere Surface Observations Radar Observations Objective Analysis Satellite Observations Upper Air Observations NWS forecasters analyze the atmosphere using AWIPS Workstations

Prognosis - Numerical Weather Prediction (computer models) Planetary/Global Models • Environmental Modeling Center – Global and Mesoscale Modeling – Ensembles • European and Canadian Models • Local modeling – Small domain – Develops local expertise Regional/Mesoscale Models Local Models

National Digital Forecast Database • Profound change in way forecasts are prepared • Forecasters interact with grids using a variety of editing tools • Legacy text products, along with graphical products generated from 2. 5 x 2. 5 km grids • Graphical Elements available – Temperature – Probability of Precipitation – Weather (Type) – Dewpoint Temperature – Wind Speed and Direction – Sky Cover – Snow Amount – Relative Humidity – Apparent Temperature – Wave Height. . . And more!

Communication…Getting the Word Out • Internet – http: //weather. gov • Media Broadcasts • NOAA Weather Radio – – – 11 Transmitters in Forecast Area Continuous coverage Immediate Broadcast of Warnings Tailored Broadcasts Relay other significant products • AMBER Alerts • Civil Emergency Messages • Chemical Spills • NWS Family of Services

Severe Weather Operations

Severe Weather Operations • Tornado/Severe Thunderstorm Watches issued from Storm Prediction Center • Local forecast office responsible for warnings – Focus on 0 -6 hour time frame – Additional Staffing and duties • • Warning Forecaster Communications Mesoscale Analyst Routine Forecast Duties

Severe Weather Operations Warning Forecasters weigh three primary factors when Making the decision whether to issue a warning on a storm: Radar Data Environment Ground Truth

Convective Warnings- Polygon Concept - Traditionally, short fused warnings were issued for entire counties, even if only a small part of a county was threatened. - Polygons allow us to focus on the specific threat. This allows EM’s to focus their resources where it really counts, and reducing the impact to those not really threatened. AT 627 PM… STORM SPOTTERS WERE TRACKING A LARGE AND VERY DANGEROUS TORNADO NEAR DEARBORN …MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH. LIVE VIDEO AND RADAR DATA SUGGEST THAT THE INITIAL TORNADO MAY BE OCCLUDING NORTHEAST INTO BUCHANAN COUNTY…AND BECOME RAIN WRAPPED AND MAY ROPE OUT. A NEW TORNADO MAY IMMINENTLY DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF DEARBORN WITH THIS STORM.

Tropical Cyclone Prediction: From National… Observations from Space: • Satellites and Measurements • Geostationary (far left) • Polar Orbiting • Precipitation Estimator (right) • Scatterometer (bottom) Observations from Air and Sea: • Aircraft and Sondes • NOAA P-3 “Hurricane Hunter” (top left) • Gulfstream G-IV Surveillance (bottom left) • Dropsondes (top right) • Dropsonde tracking (bottom right)

Tropical Cyclone Prediction: From National… Models and Evaluation Many of these observations are often included in dynamical models, which are assessed, along with other data (real-time satellite imagery and observations) by Hurricane Specialists. Global Forecast System (GFS) “Spaghetti” plot of all models, Hurricane Katrina

Tropical Cyclone Prediction: From National… Deterministic Winds w/Error Cone Forecasting Hurricane Specialists at NHC Combine Models, observations, prior forecasts, and subjective interpretation (gut feelings) to produce a forecast track. Error and probabilistic information are derived from long-term statistical samples. Probabilistic Winds

Tropical Cyclone Prediction: To Local! County Warning Area, New Orleans WFO Hurrevac® Local tracking software NHC passes baton to the WFO…. The WFO and its local partners (media affiliates, Emergency Management) refine NHC forecasts to a much smaller domain in order to directly serve counties, cities, and neighborhoods! Tropical Cyclone Surge Model (SLOSH)

Tropical Cyclone Prediction: To Local! WFO Provides Value Added Information to Local Customers! WFO Melbourne, FL, Operations During Wilma, 2005

Tropical Cyclone Prediction: To Local! Examples of Value Added Information By Text (Hurricane Local Statements, Inland Cyclone Warnings)…. . . DEVASTATING DAMAGE EXPECTED. . . MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE UNINHABITABLE FOR WEEKS. . . PERHAPS LONGER. AT LEAST ONE HALF OF WELL CONSTRUCTED HOMES WILL HAVE ROOF AND WALL FAILURE. ALL GABLED ROOFS WILL FAIL. . . LEAVING THOSE HOMES SEVERELY DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. THE MAJORITY OF INDUSTRIAL BUILDINGS WILL BECOME NON FUNCTIONAL. PARTIAL TO COMPLETE WALL AND ROOF FAILURE IS EXPECTED. ALL WOOD FRAMED LOW RISING APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL BE DESTROYED. CONCRETE BLOCK LOW RISE APARTMENTS WILL SUSTAIN MAJOR DAMAGE. . . INCLUDING SOME WALL AND ROOF FAILURE. HIGH RISE OFFICE AND APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL SWAY DANGEROUSLY. . . A FEW TO THE POINT OF TOTAL COLLAPSE. ALL WINDOWS WILL BLOW OUT. AIRBORNE DEBRIS WILL BE WIDESPREAD. . . AND MAY INCLUDE HEAVY ITEMS SUCH AS HOUSEHOLD APPLIANCES AND EVEN LIGHT VEHICLES. SPORT UTILITY VEHICLES AND LIGHT TRUCKS WILL BE MOVED. THE BLOWN DEBRIS WILL CREATE ADDITIONAL DESTRUCTION. PERSONS. . . PETS. . . AND LIVESTOCK EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL FACE CERTAIN DEATH IF STRUCK. POWER OUTAGES WILL LAST FOR WEEKS. . . AS MOST POWER POLES WILL BE DOWN AND TRANSFORMERS DESTROYED. WATER SHORTAGES WILL MAKE HUMAN SUFFERING INCREDIBLE BY MODERN STANDARDS.

Tropical Cyclone Prediction: To Local! Examples of Value Added Information …and with Graphics (Tropical Cyclone Local Hazards) Graphical Wind Hazard, Florida Suncoast Pop-Up Text Description, Extreme Wind