NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE A Streamlined Forecast Process Utilizing

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE A Streamlined Forecast Process Utilizing Forecast. Builder and the Associated Culture Change NOVEMBER 26, 2019 Presenter: Andrew Just, Forecast. Builder Manager & NWS Central Region Techniques Development Meteorologist NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Building a Weather-Ready Nation // 1

Outline • The Development of Forecast. Builder • Cultural Challenges with Forecast. Builder • The Future of Forecast. Builder NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Building a Weather-Ready Nation // 2

The Development of Forecast. Builder NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Building a Weather-Ready Nation // 3

Picture You are a forecaster at one office ● GOAL: create a seamless 7 day graphical forecast with 6 neighboring offices ● Numerous models and model blends available to create a forecast ● Each of you have tools, some are the same, but not all ● A challenge for the National Weather Service (NWS) since graphical forecasts started 15 years ago! NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Building a Weather-Ready Nation // 4

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Building a Weather-Ready Nation // 5

The NWS Central Region Grid Methodology Advisory Team (CRGMAT) ● Chartered in August 2008 ● A Joint NWS Central Region (CR) Management and NWS Employee Organization (NWSEO) Team ● Comprised of Forecasters, Science Operations Officers (SOOs) and ITOs ● 70+% Union Members ● The “Forecast Evolution” component to the CR WRN Roadmap ○ Roadmap established October 2017 to help enact the NWS WRN Roadmap ○ Version 2 released October 2019 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Building a Weather-Ready Nation // 6

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Building a Weather-Ready Nation // 7

Forecast. Builder – What is it? ● A forecast management tool that guides the forecaster by utilizing common tools, science, and process Hazard. Builder ● A delivery vehicle for a consistent, common starting point (e. g. National Blend of Models) ○ ○ ○ Approach very successful for years across CR and now expanding across the NWS Forecasters “target” adjustments (tools provided) Brings Observations into the Forecast ● Employs sound science to derive Snow Amount, Ice Accumulation, and Weather, thus ensuring internal consistency ● “Hazard. Builder” extension for Impact Based Decision Support (IDSS) graphics NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Building a Weather-Ready Nation // 8

Forecast. Builder (Continued) ● Supported with a robust training plan and NOAA online resource pages ● Designed to evolve with improving science ● Forecaster feedback has led to 200+ related changes since initial release in Oct 2016! ● Growing adoption across the NWS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Building a Weather-Ready Nation // 9

Concept / Vision behind Forecast. Builder • Provides an ability to quickly share: • • Apply “targeted” approach in making adjustments to the starting point, those that impact actions of our stakeholders and customers Ultimate goal: “Unlock” more time for: • • • Forecaster expertise Scientific research Technological improvements Impact Based Decision Support Services (IDSS) activities (e. g. partner visits, webinars, social media, weather story graphics, etc. ) Training Meteorological analysis Research Focus on the short term forecast All while improving both consistency and accuracy NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Building a Weather-Ready Nation // 10

2016 -2017 Forecast. Builder Experiment in CR Findings ● For forecasters: Time spent to create forecast has decreased ○ ○ ○ Less grid editing required Tool familiarity Collaboration easier as everyone working with the same tool ● For IT personnel: Maintaining a consistent regional blend has been very difficult ○ ○ Forecasters demand the blend consistent from office to office Strong desire to switch to the National Blend of Models once ready (switch happened in June 2019) NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Building a Weather-Ready Nation // 11

Regional Consistency Stats Before/After Before Snow Amount: 2006 - 2016 Ice Accumulation: 2011 -2016 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE After NOTE: CR highest on all 3 elements Building a Weather-Ready Nation // 12

Cultural Challenges with Forecast. Builder NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Building a Weather-Ready Nation // 13

Common Starting Point – Some Forecaster Concerns “Blowing away all the hard work from the previous forecaster” “Models flip-flop, and flip-flopping is bad for our customers” “Why can’t we start with the previous forecast, it’s already consistent” “Grids help me keep my scientific expertise” “There’s no way it can capture high impact events” “I need to touch every forecast grid so I can provide IDSS” NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Building a Weather-Ready Nation // 14

Standard Forecast Process – Some Forecaster Concerns “Can’t create a one-size fits all tool” “We have local weather no one else has” “My process has worked fine for years, why do I have to change? ” “I can complete the forecast faster without going through all the steps” NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Building a Weather-Ready Nation // 15

How CR has addressed Culture Change ● Forecast. Builder training module specifically on needing to change ● “Forecasting in the Forecast. Builder Era” document created by Central Region’s ● The CR WRN Roadmaps put emphasis on the value of the forecaster Need to understand the science to deliver effective IDSS ○ Need to embrace accurate, consistent, scientific and efficient approaches to yield more time for IDSS ○ NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Building a Weather-Ready Nation // 16

For the Transition to the National Blend of Models in Forecast. Builder • Multiple teams created a webinar • which was jointly delivered multiple times around 1 June, 2009 Stressed: • • Our biggest value comes from providing our partners the weather knowledge they need to make informed decisions Need to focus on parts of the forecast that changes would impact the message Think probabilistically NBM is not perfect, but will improve over time with continued feedback NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Building a Weather-Ready Nation // 17

CRGMAT Leadership Also Changed Culture • • • Trust • • • Past performance & verification Lots of testing Composition: A joint union-management team Forward leaning vision aligned with national NWS vision Communication • • • Requesting and listening to forecaster feedback Evaluating and implementing forecaster requests in a timely manner 24 / 7 support with technical issues NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Building a Weather-Ready Nation // 18

Forecast. Builder Benefits – from Forecasters • “Common Starting Point always ensures you begin with a consistent picture” • “Collaboration is so much easier as we all use the same tool” • “Making a gridded forecast use to be an art, now it’s science” • “I have a lot more time for other things” NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Building a Weather-Ready Nation // 19

The Future of Forecast. Builder NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Building a Weather-Ready Nation // 20

Forecast. Builder Scope NWSEO Hazard. Builder/ DSS Management Training Webinars VLAB Thunder Freezing Spray Precip Type Fire. Wx (in development) Forecast. Builder Marine/Tropical (in development) Aviation Science Tech Snow/Ice FRAM Integrity Checks NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Blowing Snow National Blend of Models Python & numpy National Smart. Inits Building a Weather-Ready Nation // 21

National Forecast. Builder Team ● Composed of SOOs from across the NWS who are tasked to: “Develop a scientific and efficient framework that leverages the NBM to help produce gridded forecasts” ● Chartered in September 2018 ● 2019 goal (completed): gathered input from NWS SOOs on how to improve Forecast. Builder NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Building a Weather-Ready Nation // 22

Team Recommendations Forecast. Builder ● Precipitation Type – to make compatible with NBM V 3. 2: Implement “Po. WT Limiter” grid: Where and when populated, precipitation types with probabilities lower than the Po. WT Limiter grid are ignored during Snow, Ice & Wx creation (completed) ○ Top-down process moves to Bourgouin to mimic NBM V 3. 2 (per SAG recommendation) ○ Approach to modify precip types manually ○ ● ● ● Snow. Level populated at all offices Simplify configuration Model. Certainty: Option for quick overview (completed) Simplify Wx More training for Edit. Retention (ability to preserve edits) Marine - Waves (NBM as a first start), Swell and Period (NWPS and/or WW 3) NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Building a Weather-Ready Nation // 23

Conclusion Forecast. Builder is not perfect - but it lays a foundation for IDSS via a consistent science based process ● This remains an evolutionary process, with forecasters providing continuous feedback on how to make it better ● The more forecasters using Forecast. Builder the better! ● ○ ○ Operational usage further improves not only Forecast. Builder but also the NBM Forecast. Builder is a means to spread the knowledge base of forecaster experience and techniques to all offices - “crowdsource development” NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Building a Weather-Ready Nation // 24

Questions and Feedback ● ● Forecast. Builder NOAA Virtual Lab site: https: //vlab. ncep. noaa. gov/web/forecastbuilder E-mail: nws. forecastbuilder@noaa. gov NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Building a Weather-Ready Nation // 25