NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF METEOROLOGY AND HYDROLOGY BULGARIAN ACADEMY
NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF METEOROLOGY AND HYDROLOGY – BULGARIAN ACADEMY OF SCIENCES Applications of the Reanalyses of the ECMWF in the Regional Climatology in Bulgaria Hristo Chervenkov National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology, 1784 Sofia “Tsarigradsko Shose” 66 ECMWF workshop in NIMH-BAS Sofia, Bulgaria, 26 -27. 04. 2018
NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF METEOROLOGY AND HYDROLOGY – BULGARIAN ACADEMY OF SCIENCES Preface Reanalysis aims to assimilate historical observational data spanning an extended period, using a single invariant, modern version of a data assimilation system and numerical weather prediction model to reconstruct the past climate and/or weather. P. Laloyaux, ECMWF Being physically most consistent representative of the state and dynamics of the atmosphere, the reanalyses are methodologically correct source for initial and/or ‘driving’ information for various applications in the regional climatology, including: • Calculation of climate indicators - ETCCDI climate indices - SPI • Initial and Boundary conditions (ICBC) for - regional climate models - agrometeorological (i. e. crop simulation) models • case studies of extreme events ECMWF workshop in NIMH-BAS Sofia, Bulgaria, 26 -27. 04. 2018
NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF METEOROLOGY AND HYDROLOGY – BULGARIAN ACADEMY OF SCIENCES Example of ETCCDI climate indices – number of frost days (FD). The source of the input data is ERA-20 C. ECMWF workshop in NIMH-BAS Sofia, Bulgaria, 25 -26. 04. 2018
NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF METEOROLOGY AND HYDROLOGY – BULGARIAN ACADEMY OF SCIENCES The standardized precipitation index calculated from different precipitation inventories Time window Reference Global, 0, 5°× 0, 5° land surface only 1900 -2010 Peterson et al. (1998) WMO-DWD Global, land surface only 1901 -2013 Schneider et al. (2015) Version v 2 c of the NOAA-CIRES 20 CR NOAA-CIRES Global *1, 5°× 1, 5° 1851 -2011 Compo et al. (2011) ERA 20 C ECMWF Global 0, 5°× 0, 5° Stickler et al. (2014) Data-set Source Version 3. 02 of the “Terrestrial Precipitation: 19002010 Gridded Monthly Time Series” Department of Geography of the University of Delaware Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) Full Data Reanalysis version 7. 0 Coverage Resolution 0, 5°× 0, 5° 1900 -2010 *Regridded from the original (Gausian) grid prior the SPI calculation The resulting SPI-Net. CDFs are available at ftp: //xeo. cfd. meteo. bg/SPI for free-of-charge download. ECMWF workshop in NIMH-BAS Sofia, Bulgaria, 26 -27. 04. 2018
NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF METEOROLOGY AND HYDROLOGY – BULGARIAN ACADEMY OF SCIENCES Example of SPI: The Saheli drought in the early 1970 s. ECMWF workshop in NIMH-BAS Sofia, Bulgaria, 26 -27. 04. 2018
NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF METEOROLOGY AND HYDROLOGY – BULGARIAN ACADEMY OF SCIENCES Initial and Boundary conditions (ICBC) for regional climate models – the TVReg. CM experiment ◄Simplified flow chart – structural units and data flow. ►List of the investigated model configurations (modcons) in the TVReg. CM experiment ECMWF workshop in NIMH-BAS Sofia, Bulgaria, 26 -27. 04. 2018
NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF METEOROLOGY AND HYDROLOGY – BULGARIAN ACADEMY OF SCIENCES TVReg. CM: Multi-annual summer mean temperature (units: о. С) for the period 1999 -2009 and absolute BIAS (о. С)for the considered modcons. ECMWF workshop in NIMH-BAS Sofia, Bulgaria, 26 -27. 04. 2018
NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF METEOROLOGY AND HYDROLOGY – BULGARIAN ACADEMY OF SCIENCES ‘Driving meteorology’ for crop simulation models ◄Main processes and data flow in the crop simulation model WOFOST ▲Set-up of the performed numerical experiment ECMWF workshop in NIMH-BAS Sofia, Bulgaria, 26 -27. 04. 2018
NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF METEOROLOGY AND HYDROLOGY – BULGARIAN ACADEMY OF SCIENCES Some results of the performed numerical experiment with WOFOST: Maximal values of some of the output variables (first row) and the day of year (DOY) of this maximum. The cultivar is winter wheat and the meteorology is the mean for the period 1981 -2010. ECMWF workshop in NIMH-BAS Sofia, Bulgaria, 26 -27. 04. 2018
NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF METEOROLOGY AND HYDROLOGY – BULGARIAN ACADEMY OF SCIENCES Case studies of extreme events Analysis of situations with strong easterlies: Calculation of the gradient by “blocking” (on left) and MSLP field during the storm over Black Sea in February 1979 (on right). The source of both is ERA-20 C. ECMWF workshop in NIMH-BAS Sofia, Bulgaria, 26 -27. 04. 2018
NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF METEOROLOGY AND HYDROLOGY – BULGARIAN ACADEMY OF SCIENCES Conclusion and Problems ERA-interim and ERA-20 C appears as reliable source of data for all considered applications, which is strengthened by the plenty of available variables and clear and straightforward retrieval procedure (via python scripts from MARS). From practical point of view the biggest problems are: • Very poor documentation, including explanation of the products • Even basic quantities (as mean temperature, 24 h precipitation totals) have to be calculated with multistep procedures, after the retriaval. ECMWF workshop in NIMH-BAS Sofia, Bulgaria, 26 -27. 04. 2018
NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF METEOROLOGY AND HYDROLOGY – BULGARIAN ACADEMY OF SCIENCES List of selected peer-reviewed papers concerning ERA-Interim and ERA-20 C Chervenkov, H. , D. Todorov T. , Slavov, K. (2015) Snow Cover Assessment with Regional Climate Model - Problems and Results, Lecture Notes in Computer Science vol. 9374, Large-Scale Scientific Computing: 10 th International Conference, LSSC 2015, Sozopol, Bulgaria, June 8 -12, 2015. Lirkov et al. (Eds. ) pp. 327– 334 Springer International Publishing, DOI: 10. 1007/978 -3 -319 -26520 -9 36 Chervenkov, H. , Slavov, K. (2016) Simulated versus Satellite Retrieval Distribution Patterns of the Snow Water Equivalent over Southeast Europe, International Journal of Environmental & Agriculture Research (IJOEAR) ISSN: 2454 -1850 Vol. 2, Issue-3, March-2016 pp. 115 -122 (IF: 1, 23) Chervenkov, H. , Tsonevsky, I. , Slavov, K. (2016) Presentation of Four Centennial-long Global Gridded Datasets of the Standardized Precipitation Index, International Journal of Environmental & Agriculture Research (IJOEAR) ISSN: 2454 -1850 Vol. 2, Issue-3, March-2016 pp. 93 -105 (IF: 1, 23) Chervenkov, H. , Slavov, K. (2016) Comparison of simulated and objectively analyzed distribution patterns of snow water equivalent over the Carpathian Region IDŐJÁRÁS Quarterly Journal of the Hungarian Meteorological Service Vol. 120, No. 3, July – September, 2016, pp. 315– 329 Chervenkov, H. , Ivanov, V. , Gadzhev, G. , Ganev, K. , (2017) Sensitivity Study of Different Reg. CM 4. 4 Model Set-Ups – Recent Results from the TVReg. CM Experiment CYBERNETICS AND INFORMATION TECHNOLOGIES Vol. 17, No 5 Special issue with selected papers from the workshop “Two Years Avitohol: Advanced High Performance Computing Applications 2017” DOI: 10. 1515/cait-2017 -0051 pp. 17 -26 Galabov, V. , Chervenkov H. , (2018) Study of the Western Black Sea Storms with a Focus on the Storms Caused by Cyclones of North African Origin, Pure and Applied Geophysics, Vol. 175, Issue 441, pp. 121, Springer, DOI: 10. 1007/s 00024 -018 -1844 -7 ECMWF workshop in NIMH-BAS Sofia, Bulgaria, 26 -27. 04. 2018
NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF METEOROLOGY AND HYDROLOGY – BULGARIAN ACADEMY OF SCIENCES THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION! ECMWF workshop in NIMH-BAS Sofia, Bulgaria, 26 -27. 04. 2018
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