National dialogue for the elaboration of a social

National dialogue for the elaboration of a social protection strategy in Myanmar Workshop on the social protection assessment matrix March 24 th-26 th, 2014 Nay Pyi Taw

jrefrm. Edkifi. Hw. Gif vlr. Ia&; qdkif&mtum tu. G, fay; a&; enf; As. L[m wpf&yftm; tao; pdwf&Sif; vif; azm fjyjcif; tw. Guf Edkifi. Htqihftjyeftv. S efaq. G; a. EG; ajymqdkr. I vlr. Ia&; qdkif&mtumtu. G, fay; a &; tu. Jjzwfqef; ppf r. Iu. Gef, ufqdkif&m 2014 ck. ESpf? rwfv tvkyf&Hkaq. G; a. EG; y. GJ (24 -26) &uf aejynfawmf

Session 2: Risk and social protection

tydkif; (2) t. EÅ&m, f&Sdonhfp. Gef. Yp m; r. IESihf vlr. Ia&; qdkif&mtumtu. G, f ay; jcif;

Key questions • • What is risk? What are the different types of risk? What are the sources and consequences of risk? How is risk managed? Why do we need social protection? How does social protection help managing risks? Why should attention be paid to special needs and vulnerabilities?

t"duar; c. Gef; rsm; • t. EÅ&m, f&Sdonhfp. Gef. Ypm; r. I[lonftb, fenf; / • rwln. Daomt. EÅ&m, f&Sdonfhp. Gef. Ypm; r. Itrsd. K; tpm; rsm; um; tb, fenf; / • t. EÅ&m, f&Sdonhfp. Gef. Ypm; r. It&if; c. HESihf¤if; aemufqufw. GJtusd. K; qufrsm; um; tb, f enf; / • t. EÅ&m, f&Sdonhfp. Gef. Ypm; r. Iudk rnfu. Jhodk. Yp. Dr. Hcef. Yc. GJrnfenf; / • u. REfkyfwdk. Ytaejzihf vlr. Ia&; qdkif&mtumtu. G, fay; r. I tb, fa. Mumihfvdktyfygoenf; / • t. EÅ&m, f&Sdonhfp. Gef. Ypm; r. Irsm; udk p. Dr. Hcef. Yc. GJ&mw. Gif vlr. Ia&; qdkif&mtumtu. G, fay; r. Iu

Risk and social protection Work in your group to: - Give 3 synonyms of “risk” - Give 3 most common risks people experience along the life cycle in Myanmar You have 15 minutes

t. EÅ&m, f&Sdonhfp. Gef. Ypm; r. IESihf tz. GJUvdkufvkyfaqmif&e f vlr. Ia&; qdkif&mtum - ]]t. EÅ&m, f&Sdonfhp. Ge f. Ypm; r. I}} tu. G, fay; jcif; ESihft"dyÜg, f wlpum; v. Hk; (3) v. Hk; azmfjy&ef - jrefrm. Edkifi. H&Sdb 0& Sifoefr. Ipuf 0 ef; w. Gif vltrsm; aw. GUMu. HK&onh f tjzpftrsm; q. Hk; aom t. EÅ&m, f&Sdonhfp. Gef. Y pm; r. I (3) rsd. K; udk azmfjy&ef oifhtw. Guftcsdef (15) rdepf& &Sdygrnf/

What is risk? • Risk is an uncertain event which leads to some monetary loss • Risk is not uncertainty; we know the possible outcomes but not which one will take place • E. g. Max and Chris are two brothers, who could be either sick or healthy. Thus, there are four possibilities: Max Chris X X • Each outcome has a 25% possibility of occurrence

t. EÅ&m, f&Sdonhfp. Gef. Ypm; r. I[l onftb, fenf; / • t. EÅ&m, f&Sdonhfp. Gef. Ypm; r. I[lonf ai. Ga. Mu; wpfp. Hkwpf&mq. Hk; &HI; r. Iq. Dodk. YOD; wnfonfh aocsmp. Gmajymqdk. Edkifjcif; r&Sdonhftjzpftysufwp fckjzpfygonf/ • t. EÅ&m, f&Sdonhfp. Gef. Ypm; r. Ionfaocsmr. I&Sdygonf/ jzpfay: vm. Edkifonhf&v'frsm; udk u. REfkyfwdk. Yod&Sdygonf/ od. Ykaomfb, ft&mjzpfvmrnfudkrlrod&Sd. Edkifyg/ ruf(p) c&pf(p) • Oyrm - ruf(p)ESihfc&pf(p)wdk. Yonf n. Dtpfudk. ESpfa, mufjzpfygonf/ rnfolonf zsm; emol(odk. Y)usef; rmaomoljzpf. Edkifygoenf; / X atmufw. Gifjzpf. Edkifajc(4)ckudkazmfjy xm; ygonf/ X X X

What is risk? You do not know: Sickness Maternity Death Will it happen? When will it happen? What will be the financial Consequences?

t. EÅ&m, f&Sdonhfp. Gef. Ypm; r. I[l onftb, fenf; / oifrodyg zsm; e r. D; z. G aoq. Hk; jci mjcif m; jci jzpfysufvmrnfvm; / ; f; b, ftcsdefjzpfysufvmr. Smv. J/ ai. Ga. Mu; qdkif&maemufqufw. GJtusd. K; qufaw. Gubmaw. Gv. J/

What is risk? • We cannot predict which outcome will take place • However, we can estimate the probability of a risk for a group of people using actuarial techniques

t. EÅ&m, f&Sdonhfp. Gef. Ypm; r. I[l onftb, fenf; / • u. REfkyfwdk. Ytaejzihfrnfonhf&v'fjzpfay: vmrn fudk Mud. Kwifcef. Yr. Sef; ír&yg/ • odk. Yaomf? tmrc. Hudef; *Pef; qdkif&menf; pepfrsm; udkto. Hk ; jy. Konhf vltpktz. GJUwpfz. GJU tw. Guf t. EÅ&m, f&Sdonhfp. Gef. Ypm; r. Iwpf&yfjzpfay: vm. Ed kifonhftaetxm; udkrl cef. Yr. Sef; í&ygonf/

Types of risks • Covariant risks: affect large numbers of people at the same time, e. g. epidemics • Idiosyncratic risks: affect a small segment of the population • Minor and major risks: Probability Unit cost Possible consequences Minor risk +++ + Consultation Major risk + +++ Hospitalization • Catastrophic risks: affect a large segment of the population and have high unit costs

t. EÅ&m, f&Sdonhfp. Gef. Ypm; r. Itr sd. K; tpm; rsm; • vltrsm; Mu. HKaw. G&Edkifonhft. EÅ&m, f&Sdonhfp. G ef. Ypm; r. Irsm; - wpfcsdefwnf; w. Gifvl trs; tjym; udkxdcdkufapygonf/ Oyrm ul; pufa&m*grsm; • vltpktz. GJUwpfck. Mu. HKaw. GY&Edkifonhft. EÅ&m, f &Sdonhfp. Gef. Ypm; r. Irsm; - &Sdonfhvl. OD; a& ta&tw. Guftenf; i, fudk xdcdkufapygonf/ jzpf. Edk wpf. OD; csif; u jzpf. Edkifonhf ifajc kefusp&dwf tusd. K; qufrsm; • ao; i, faomp. G ao; i, faomt. EÅ&m, f&Sdonhfp. Gef. Ypm; r. IESihf. Mu wdkifyifaq. G; a +++ + D; rm; aomt. EÅ&m, f&Sdonhfp. Gef. Ypm; r. I EG; t. Mu. Hjy. Kjci f; Mu. D; rm; aomp Gef. Ypm; r. I + +++ aq; &Hkwufa&mu fukojcif;

Sources of risk Natural: Health: Life-cycle: Social: Economic: Political: Environment: flood, drought illness, epidemic birth, old age, death crime, war unemployment, financial crisis riot, coup d’état pollution, nuclear disaster Social security covers health and life-cycle risks, and some economic risks like unemployment (elaborated in Convention No. 102)

t. EÅ&m, f&Sdonhfp. Gef. Ypm; r. It &if; c. Hrsm; obm 0 w&m; a&v. Trf; rdk; jcif; ? rdk; acgifjcif; usef; rma&; zsm; emjcif; ? ul; pufa&m*g b 0&Sifoefr. Ipuf 0 ef; ar. G; z. Gm; jcif; ? touft&G, ftdkrif; jcif; ? aoq. Hk; jcif; vlr. Ia&; &m. Z 0 wfr. I? ppfy. GJ p. D; y. Gm; a&; tvkyfvufr. Jhjzpfjcif; ? ai. Ga. Mu; tusyftwnf; jzpfay: jcif; Edkifi. Ha&; qlylt. Hk. Mu. Gr. Ijzpfjcif; ? tiftm; o. Hk; ítm. Pmodrf; jcif; obm 0 ywf 0 ef; usif npfnrf; r. Ijzpfay: jcif; ? j. ELuv. D; , m; ab; t. EÅ&m, f

Consequences of risk • • • Risks have various consequences which could affect the person and the family members Thus, risk management is important E. g. possible consequences of accidents include financial losses, temporary or permanent disability, death

t. EÅ&m, f&Sdonhfp. Gef. Ypm; r. Iaem ufqufw. GJtusd. K; qufrsm; • • • t. EÅ&m, f&Sdonhfp. Gef. Ypm; r. Irsm; w. Gif vlyk*¾d. Kvfwpf. OD; ESihf¤if; rdom; pk 0 ifrsm; tm ; xdcdkufepf emap. Edkifonhf trsd. K; aomaemufqufw. GJtusd. K; qufrsm; yg&S dygonf/ odk. Yjzpfí? t. EÅ&m, f&Sdonhfp. Gef. Ypm; r. Iqdkif&mp Dr. Hcef. Yc. GJr. Ionfta&; Mu. D; ygonf/ Oyrm rawmfwqjzpfjcif; rsm; a. Mumihfjzpf. Edkifonhfae mufqufw. GJtusd. K; qufrsm; w. Gif ai. Ga. Mu; q. Hk; &HI; r. Irsm; ? acwÅ, m, D (okd. Y) wpfoufv. Hk; roefrp. Grf; r. Ijzpfjcif; ? aoq. Hk; jcif; wdk. Y yg 0 ifygonf/

Risk management strategies Prevention Mitigation Occurrence of the risk Precaution Ex ante strategy: protection Risk Coping Ex post strategy: repair Adapted from R. Holzmann and S. Jørgensen: “Social risk management: A new conceptual framework for social protection and beyond”, in International Tax and Public Finance (2001), Vol. 8, No. 4, August, pp. 529 -556.

t. EÅ&m, f&Sdonhfp. Gef. Ypm; r. Ip. Dr. Hc ef. Yc. GJa&; qkdif&menf; As. L[mrsm; umu. G, fwm; q. D; jcif; avsmhyg; oufomapjcif; t. EÅ&m, f&Sd onhfp. Gef. Yp m; r. Ijzpfay udkifw. G, fajz&Sif; jci : vmjcif; Mud. Kwifumu. G, fr. I t. EÅ&m, f&S donhf p. Gef. Ypm; r Mud. Kwifaqmif&G I jzpfay: jy. D; aemufa ufonfh qmif&Gufonhf enf; As. L[m umu. G, fjcif; Adapted from R. Holzmann and S. Jørgensen: “Social risk management: A new conceptual framework for social protection and beyond”, in International jyifqifjcif; Tax and Public Finance (2001), Vol. 8, No. 4, August, pp. 529 -556.

Risk management strategies Prevention • aim to reduce the chances of the risk occurring, in advance • are introduced before the risk occurs Precaution Mitigation • aim to limit • aim to reduce exposure to risk the potential • are introduced impact of the before the risk, in advance occurs • are introduced before the risk occurs e. g. immunization e. g. settling in areas less prone to floods Coping • aim to relieve the impact of the risk after it occurs • are introduced after the risk occurs e. g. building up e. g. visiting assets and savings traditional healers to save money, working longer to earn money

t. EÅ&m, f&Sdonhfp. Gef. Ypm; r. Ip. Dr. Hc ef. Yc. GJa&; qdkif&menf; As. L[mrsm; wm; q. D; umu. G, Mud. Kwifumu. G, avsmhyg; ouf udkifw. G, faj fjcif; omap jcif; z&Sif; jcif; • t. EÅ&m, f&Sdonhf p. Gef. Ypm; r. Ijzpfay: jcif; ud ay: &eftumtu. G, f a. Mumifhjzpfay: jy. D; aemufxd kavsmhenf; r. Jhr. Iudk onhfxdcdkufr. Iu cdkufr. Iavsmh ap&ef uef. Yowf&ef. OD; w dkavsmhenf; ap& enf; oufomap&ef Mud. Kwifvkyfaqm nfjcif; ef. OD; wnfjcif; OD; wnf jcif; if • t. EÅ&m, f&Sdonhf &ef. OD; wnfjcif; p. Gef. Ypm; r. Ir p. Gefpm; r. Ijzpf • t. EÅ&m, f&Sdonhf jzpfay: r. Dtpysd ay: jy. D; aemufw. G p. Gef. Ypm; r. Ir K; vkyfaqmif iftpysd. K; jzpfay: r. Dtpysd jcif; vkyfaqmifonf/ K; vkyfaqmif jcif; Oyrm umu. G, faq; xdk; Oyrm a&Mu. D; v. G, fonh Oyrm u. Rrf; usifvdr® Oyrm ai. Ga. Mu; ukefus

Need for social protection Risk management can be done at: Individual level Family level Community level But not always! For some risks, individuals, families, communities cannot cope by themselves… There is a need for broader solidarity.

vlr. Ia&; qdkif&mtumtu. G, fay; j cif; tw. Gufvdktyfr. I t. EÅ&m, f&Sdonhfp. Gef. Ypm; r. Iqdkif&mp. Dr. Hcef. Yc. GJr Iudkatmufygtqihfrsm; w. Gifvkyfaqmif. Edkifonf/ wpf. OD; csif; tqihf rdom; pktqihf vl. Ytz. GJUtpnf; tqihf odk. Yaomf? tjr. Jwrf; r[kwfyg/ tcsd. KUaomt. EÅ&m, f&Sdonhfp. Gef. Ypm ; r. Irsm; udkvlwpf. OD; csif; vdkuf rdom; pkvdkuf. ESihf vl. Ytz. GJUtpnf; tvdkufudkifw. G, faj z&Sif; Edkifjcif; r&Sdaoma. Mumihf xdkxuf. Mu. D; rsm; us, fjyef. Yonhfpnf ; v. Hk; n. Dn. Gwfr. I vdktyfygonf/

How does social protection help managing risk? • Social protection mechanisms help prevent and mitigate risks along the life cycle. Prevent Mitigate Social protection helps individuals and households access services that reinforce resilience: Access to health Social protection helps individuals and households cope if risks occur: Sickness Pregnancy Unemployment Access to education and social services Old age Injury Disability

t. EÅ&m, f&Sdonhfp. Gef. Ypm; r. Irsm; udkp. D r. Hcef. Yc. GJ&mw. Gifvlr. Ia&; qdkif&mtumt u. G, f ay; r. Iu rnfu. Jhodk. Ytaxmuftuljy. Kygoenf; / • vlr. Ia&; qdkif&mtumtu. G, fay; r. I, EÅ&m; rsm; onf b 0&Sifoefr. Ipuf 0 ef; wpfav. Qmuf t. EÅ&m, f&Sdonfhp. Gef. Ypm; r. Irsm; vlr. Ia&; qdkif&mtumtu. G, fay; jc avsmhyg; oufo w. Gifjzpfay: aomt. EÅ&m, f&Sdonfhp. Gef. Ypm; r. Irsm; u umu. G, fwm; q. D jzpfay: aomtcg? vlr. Ia&; qdkif&m if; onfvlwpf. OD; csif; p. DESihfr mapyg/ ; yg/ dk. Mud. Kwifumu. G, fjy. D; w&m; p. Gqdkay; ygonf/ tumtu. G, fay; jcif; onfvlwpf. OD; c dom; pk 0 ifrsm; tm; 0 efaqmifr. Iv kyfief; rsm; udk&&Sdc. H pm; Edkifonhftc. Gihftvrf; udkt axmuftulay; ygonf/ ¤if; uc. HEdkif&nf&Sdr. Iudktm; j usef; rma&; 0 efaqm znfhay; ygonf/ ifr. I&&Sdonhftc. Gi fhtvrf; ynma&; ESihfvlr. Ia&; q dkif&m 0 efaqmifr. I rsm; &&Sd. Edkifonhftc Gifhtvrf; sif; p. DESihfrdom; pk 0 if rsm; tm; ¤if; wdk. Yudkudkifw. G, fa jz&Sif; Edkif&eftaxmuftul zsm; emjcif ay; onf/ ; udk, f 0 efaq mifjcif; tvkyfvufr. Jh jzpfjcif; touft&G, ftdk rif; jcif; xdcdkuf'Pf& m&&Sdjcif; roefrp. Grf; jzpfjcif;

How does social protection help managing risk? Example with sickness: Prevent Access to regular health checks and primary care. Mitigate Cash compensation for inability to work Access to curative treatments.

t. EÅ&m, f&Sdonhfp. Gef. Ypm; r. Iqdkif&mp. Dr. Hc ef. Yc. GJr. Iudk vlr. Ia&; qdkif&mtumtu. G, f ay; jcif; urnfu. Jhod. Yktaxmuftuljy. Kygoen f; / zsm; emjcif; om"u umu. G, fwm; q. D; yg / usef; rma&; ppfaq; r. IESihf tajcc. Husef; rma&; apmifha&Smufr. Ic. H, l. Edkif onhftc. Gifhtvrf; avsmhyg; oufoma pyg/ tvkyfudkif. Edkifp. Gr f; r&Sdjcif; a. Mumifh epfema. Mu; &&Sdapjcif; (ai. Ga. Mu; ) aq; ukor. Ic. H, l. Edkifonh ftc. Gihftvrf;

Attention to special needs • Within a given population, some persons will be more exposed to certain risks than others, they are more vulnerable. • This needs to be taken into account to design adapted social protection policies.

txl; vdktyfr. Irsm; udktav; xm; jcif; • &Sdaeonhfvl. OD; a&yrm. Pwpfcktw. Gif; w. Gif tcsd. KUaomolrsm; onf tjcm; olrsm; xuf t. EÅ&m, f&Sdonhfp. Gef. Ypm; r. Irsm; udk ydkíMu. HKaw. GYEdkifygonf/ ¤if; wdk. Yonfydkjy. D; tumtu. G, f uif; r. Jholrsm; jzpfygonf/ • vlr. Ia&; qdkif&mtumtu. G, fay; a&; qdkif&mrl 0 g'rs m; udk y. Hkp. Hcsr. Swfjy. D; q. Davsmfp. Gmjyifqif aqmif&Gufaomtcgw. Gif þvkdtyfr. Irsm; udkxnfho. Gif; p. Of; pm; Mu&rnfjzpf

Examples Universal Health Coverage Mandatory health coverage in Rwanda Combination of social insurance and subsidized community-based insurance schemes. Over 98% of the population covered. Access to health Risk of illness Access to education Risk of loss of income in the household Risk of loss of income due to old age Child and family benefits Child Support Grant in South Africa Provides monthly cash benefits to households with children to over 10 million beneficiaries. Old age pension Combination of Government pension scheme Social Security Fund 500 bath universal pension scheme in Thailand, over 80% of elderly people are covered.

Oyrmom"ursm; zsm; emr. Iqdkif&m t. EÅ&m, f&Sdonhf p. Gef. Ypm; r. Itw. Guf usef; rma&; apmifha&Smufr. It c. Gihftvrf; &0 rf'g. Edkifi. Hw. Gif tm; v. Hk; ESihftus. HK; 0 ifonhfu vlr. Ia&; qdkif&mtmrc. HESihfvl. Ytz. GJUtpnf; udkt sef; rma&; apmifha&Smufr. I ajcjy. Konhftpdk; &axmufy. Hha. Mu; ay; jcif; (trawmfa. Mu; ) qdkif&mtmrc. Htp. Dtp. Ofrssm; tm; aygif; pnf; jcif ; Oya'u. Jhodk. Yaom tm. Pmwnfonhftrdef. Yt&vltm; v. Hk; tw. Guftus. HK; 0 i fonhfusef; rma&; apmifha&Smufr. Iudk&&Sdc. Hpm; apyg onf/ vl. OD; a& (98 %) rdom; pk 0 ifai. Gq. Hk; &HI uav; oli, f. ESihfrdom; pktusd. K; t awmiftmz&duw. Gif tw. Guftus. HK; 0 ifygonf/ ; jcif; qdkif&mt. EÅ&m, f jrwfrsm; uav; oli, ftm; axmufy. Hha. Mu; ay; jcif; &Sdonhfp. Gef. Ypm; r. Itw. G onfuav; i, frsm; &Sdonhfrdom; pkrsm; ufynmoif. Mum; Edkifr. I tw. Guf vp. Ofai. Ga. Mu; tc. Gihftvrf; tusd. K; tjrwfrsm; udkaxmufy. Hhjznfhq nf; ay; um? tusd. K; tjrwfc. H pm; &&Sdolaygif; (10) oef; ausmfygonf/ touft&G, ftdkri xdkif; Edkifi. Hw. Giftpdk; &uay ouf. Mu. D; yifpifay; jcif; f; jcif; ; onhfyifpif? vlr. Izlv. Hka&; a. Mumihf 0 ifai. Gq &Hy. Hkai. GESihf Hk; &HI; jcif; qd ouf. Mu. D; &G, ftdkrsm; tm; bwf kif (500) &mt. EÅ&m, f&Sdon yifpifay; jcif; wdk. Yudkaygif hfp. Gef. Ypm; r. I ; pnf; aqmif. Mu. Of; ay; onhf tp. Dtp. Of&Sdygonf/