National Centers for Environmental Prediction An Overview Dr

National Centers for Environmental Prediction: An Overview Dr. Louis W. Uccellini National Centers for Environmental Prediction Director Climate Services Program Managers Meeting February 11, 2011 “Where America’s Climate, Weather, Ocean and Space Weather Services Begin” 1

Organizational Chart for the National Weather Service National Hurricane Center Space Weather Prediction Center 2

NCEP’s Role in NOAA’s Seamless Suite Products and Forecast Services Observe - Process - Assimilate - Predict of To Serve Diverse Customer Base Products & Forecast Services Central Guidance Local Offices NCEP IBM Supercomputer Gaithersburg, MD e. g. , Energy Officials, DHS/FEMA, Emergency Managers, Water Resource Planning, Transportation, Health organizations (CDC…) Respond & Feedback Distribute Research, Development and Technology Infusion Feedback Prediction is now inherently linked to numerical models 3

NCEP Supports the NOAA Seamless Suite of Climate Weather and Ocean Products Organization: Central component of NOAA National Weather Service Mission: NCEP delivers science-based environmental predictions to the nation and the global community. We collaborate with partners and customers to produce reliable, timely, and accurate analyses, guidance, forecasts and warnings for the protection of life and property and the enhancement of the national economy. Aviation Weather Center Space Weather Prediction Center Storm Prediction Center NCEP Central Operations Climate Prediction Center Environmental Modeling Center Hydromet Prediction Center Ocean Prediction Center National Hurricane Center Vision: The Nation’s trusted source, first alert and preferred partner for environmental prediction services 4

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER Tropical Weather Guidance and Forecasts 46 FTE 26 FTE 5 5

Test Beds Service – Science Linkage with the Outside Community • EMC WRF Developmental Test Center, NASA/ NOAA/Do. D Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation • CPC Climate Test Bed • NHC Joint Hurricane Test Bed • HPC Hydrometeorological Test Bed • SPC Hazardous Weather Test Bed with NSSL • SWPC Space Weather Prediction Test Bed with AFWA • AWC Aviation Weather Test Bed • OPC linked with EMC’s Marine Modeling and Analysis Branch 6

What Does NCEP Do? “From the Sun to the Sea” • • Solar Monitoring, Warnings and Forecasts Climate Seasonal Forecasts El Nino – La Nina Forecast Weather Forecasts to Day 7 Extreme Events (Hurricanes, Severe Weather, Snowstorms, Weather) Aviation Forecasts and Warnings High Seas Forecasts and Warnings Fire - Model Development, Implementation and Applications for Global and Regional Weather, Climate, Oceans and now Space Weather - International Partnerships in Ensemble Forecasts - Data Assimilation including the Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation - Super Computer, Workstation and Network Operations 7 7

NOAA Seamless Suite of Forecast Products Spanning Climate and Weather Service Center Perspective Forecast Uncertainty Years Outlook Seasons Months OPC AWC 6 -10 Day Forecast NDFD, Days 4 -7 TPC SWPC Minutes Winter Weather Desk Days 1 -3 Tropical Storms to Day 5 Severe Weather to Day 8 Fire Weather Outlooks to Day 8 : Environment Health Ecosystem Recreation Agriculture Hydropower Reservoir Control 8 Energy Planning Commerce Emergency Mgmt Fire Weather Space Operations Benefits Maritime Warnings & Alert Coordination HPC SPC Hours Aviation Watches Climate/Weather Linkage 1 Week Days Week 2 Hazards Assessment CPC 2 Week Life & Property Forecasts Forecast Lead Time Guidance Threats Assessments Seasonal Predictions

NWS Seamless Suite of Forecast Products Spanning Climate and Weather NCEP Model Perspective Forecast Uncertainty Years Outlook Seasons Months Hours Minutes Climate Forecast System North American Ensemble Forecast System Global Forecast System Short-Range Ensemble Forecast North American Forecast Rapid Update Cycle for Aviation Dispersion Models for DHS Climate/Weather Linkage Ocean Model Hurricane Models -GFDL -WRF Environment Health Ecosystem Recreation Agriculture Hydropower Reservoir Control 9 Energy Planning Commerce Emergency Mgmt Fire Weather Benefits Space Operations Warnings & Alert Coordination Days Maritime Watches 1 Week Aviation Forecasts 2 Week Life & Property Threats Assessments Forecast Lead Time Guidance

NOAA’s NWS Model Production Suite Climate CFS Hurricane GFDL HWRF MOM 3 led Coup Oceans HYCOM Wave. Watch III Global Forecast System North American Ensemble Forecast System GFS, Canadian Global Model Regional NAM Dispersion WRF NMM ARL/HYSPLIT Severe Weather Regional DA Global Data Assimilation Regional DA 3. 5 B Obs/Day Satellites + Radar 99. 9% WRF NMM/ARW Workstation WRF Short-Range Ensemble Forecast WRF: ARW, NMM ETA, RSM NOAH Land Surface Model Air Quality NAM/CMAQ 10 Rapid Update for Aviation For eca st 10

Prediction Requires “Coupling” of Basic Earth “Systems” within Global Numerical Forecast Models Atmosphere Ocean Cryosphere Land • Predictions Driven by Global Observing Systems • Real-time operations require world’s largest computers 11

Computing Capability “reliable, timely and accurate” – Declared operational August 12, 2009 – 73. 1 trillion calculations/sec – Factor of 4 increase over the IBM Power 5 – 156 POWER 6 32 -way nodes – 4, 992 processors – 20 terabytes of memory – 330 terabytes of disk space – 3. 5 billion observations/day – 27. 8 million model fields/day • Primary: Gaithersburg, MD • Backup: Fairmont, WV – Guaranteed switchover in 15 minutes – Web access to models as they run on the CCS Number of Hits (Millions) • Transition to IBM Power 6 complete Popularity of NCEP Models Web Page 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Example of Forecast Metric 13

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Record Scores Record Improvement

Day at which forecast loses useful skill (AC=0. 6) N. Hemisphere 500 h. Pa height calendar year means Forecast day 8. 02 d

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2010 (preliminary) 19

Forces for Change • Increasing emphasis on multi-model ensemble approaches that build on the NCEP model suite – SREF – NAEFS – Climate Forecast System (EUROSIP) • Entering the JPSS era – More rapid access to data – GPS soundings – Higher resolution surface radiance data ESMF-based System Global/Regional Model Domain hyperspectral Model Region 1 • All models run within ESMF – – Model Region 2 Models run concurrently Hybrid vertical coordinate Coupled Spanning all scales • Operational Earth System model – more explicit hydro, climate and ecosystems applications 20

Climate Forecast System (CFS) Planned Upgrade for Q 2 FY 11 Attribute Operational Configuration Q 2 FY 11 Configuration Analysis Resolution 200 km 38 km Atmosphere model 1995: 200 km/28 levels Humidity based clouds 100 km/64 levels Variable CO 2 AER SW & LW radiation Prognostic clouds & liquid water Retuned mountain blocking Convective gravity wave drag MOM-3: 60 N-65 S 1/3 x 1 deg. Assim depth 750 m MOM-4 fully global ¼ x ½ deg. Assim depth 4737 m 2 -level LSM No separate land data assim 4 level Noah model GLDAS driven by obs precip Climatology Daily analysis and Prognostic sea ice Daily 30 minutes Retrieved soundings, 1995 analysis, uncoupled background Radiances assimilated, 2008 GSI, coupled background 15/month seasonal output 25/month (seasonal) 124/month (week 3 -6) Ocean model Land surface model (LSM) and assimilation Sea ice Coupling Data assimilation Reforecasts

National Environmental Modeling System FY 11; Q 3 1. 5 km 12 km 6 km Parent (12 km) – 84 hrs Children (6, 4 & 3 km) – 60 hrs IMET (1. 5 & 1. 33 km) – 36 hrs 3 km 4 km 1. 33 km Nonhydrostatic Mesoscale Model (NMM) Non. Hydrostatic Multiscale Model on B grid (NMMB) -- Physics retuned for NMMB -- Additional data sets: Windsat, ASCAT, ACARS humidity, NOAA-19 (HIRS and AMSU-A), IASI radiances, AQUA (AMSU-A), GPS (radio occultation) 22

EUROSIP Update • MOU signed in July 2010 to include NCEP as EUROSIP partner (along with ECMWF, Meteo. France, UKMet) • The EUROSIP hindcast data files have been downloaded to computers VAPOR and STRATUS (in restricted access directories) • CPC has FY 11 milestone to develop and test a seasonal multi-model ensemble forecast tool that combines CFS and EUROSIP 23 23

Ecosystem Prediction Predicting Sea Nettles in Chesapeake Bay Current Demonstration Ready for Transition* • Automatically generate daily nowcasts and 3 -day forecasts of Sea Nettles, Chrysaora quinquecirrha, in Chesapeake Bay • Generated since 2002 • Important for water management and recreational purposes * Research initiated, developed and results demonstrated by NOS and NESDIS with regional partners and customers Predicted chance of encountering sea nettles, C. quinquecirrha, on August 17, 2007 24

Climate and Health in Africa • Collaborate with NMHS Burkina Faso on predicting meningitis outbreaks Observed and Predicted Meningitis Incidence Rate in logarithmic form - Case of Burkina Faso Base Period: 1968 -2005 – Target countries: Burkina Faso, Niger – Preliminary results suggest NCEP reanalysis can be used to predict epidemic outbreaks • Collaborate with UMD on predicting water-borne diseases – Target countries: Angola, Cameroon, Mozambique, Senegal – Preliminary results suggest role of SST and rainfall in triggering an epidemic disease – Rainfall increase of 277 mm in 7 days, 15 -22 Aug 2005 – Cholera outbreak peaks about 30 days later. Yaka et al. , 2008 Observed rainfall (blue) and cholera data (red) Case of Dakar, Senegal 25 Constantin & Thiaw, in progress

Summary • NCEP is – Strategically aligned with NOAA’s “seamless suite” of products from the “Sun to the Sea” – Continually improving collaborative forecasts – especially for extreme events – Working with NOAA on expanded responsibilities (e. g, oceans air and water quality, ecology, space weather…); success is based on interdisciplinary approach – A critical transition agent in the NOAA “research to operations” process involving observations, data assimilation, modeling, and service delivery – Actively pursuing opportunities for collaboration in research, transition to operations and operational production and delivery of services with national and international communities 26 26

Appendix 27

New Building Status • • • The developer stopped work in December 2008 when NCWCP construction was 80% complete. In May 2009, the developer filed a claim in Federal Court to recover “damages” from the Government. This claim was dismissed without prejudice in August 2010. In October 2010, the developer filed an appeal; resolution of this appeal is pending. In June 2009, the developer filed for bankruptcy with the County Court. In response, the court appointed a “Receiver” to complete the project. In November 2010, the court approved the Receiver’s plan and granted the receiver permission to resume construction. In December 2010, the Receiver filed a motion to petition the Federal Court to transfer the pending Federal appeal to the County Court. Once transferred, the Receiver can ask that the claim be dismissed with prejudice, after which construction can resume promptly. GSA’s goal is to reach project completion approximately 12 months after re-start of construction. GSA’s most current estimate for the building’s substantial completion is March 2012. 28