NASAs Role in Direct Broadcast Direct Readout NOAA

NASA’s Role in Direct Broadcast / Direct Readout NOAA Direct Readout Conference Patrick Coronado Shahid Habib NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Greenbelt, Maryland, USA April 4 th, 2011

Contents • Changing Planet • Science and Applications • Implementation Process • Examples of using Global and Direct Broadcast Data Products • Summary

Earth System Science and Applications • • Climate and weather variability can produce year-to-year swings in our economy of plus or minus $100 billion 1 Approximately 90% of presidentially declared disasters in the United States are weather-related 1 Weather affects aviation, air quality, health, ground and marine transportation, defense, agriculture, fisheries, water, energy, construction, tourism, and many other sectors of the economy – and most of these issues are regional. Our success depends on our ability to provide decision makers with reliable and convincing information. 1 Data from “Satellite Observations of the Earth’s Environment. Accelerating the Transition of Research to Operations, NRC report, 2003

Earth’s Energy Balance

Increasing Carbon Dioxide Malinkovich cycle attributed to Earth’s orbital anomalies Measured Surface Temperature the past 150 years 5 warmest years: 1998, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005

Global Temperature Variability Sir N. Stern report compares fossil-fuel Based / Climate-Friendly Scenarios CO 2 Emissions, MT C Time to develop new technologies Time for capital stock turnover 35. 00 30. 00 25. 00 FOSSIL FUEL SCENARIO + 3º to 5º C Temp increase by 2100 20. 00 15. 00 10. 00 5. 00 CLIMATE FRIENDLY SCENARIO 19 9 20 0 0 20 0 1 20 0 2 20 0 3 20 0 4 20 0 5 20 0 6 20 0 7 20 0 8 20 0 9 21 0 00 0. 00 + 1º to 2. 5º C Ref: Dr. Maryvonne Plessis-Fraissard World Bank Every year we pump more than six billion tones of carbon emissions into the air from burning fossil fuel, despite a general consensus that this contributes directly to climate change.

Monthly Arctic Sea Ice Extent Deviations November 1978 – December 2004 Aqua/AMSRE Measurement

IPCC Report • It is very likely that human activities are causing global warming – Probable temperature rise by the end of the century will be between 1. 8 C and 4 C (3. 2 7. 2 F) – Possible temperature rise by the end of the century ranges between 1. 1 C and 6. 4 C (2 - 11. 5 F) • Sea levels are likely to rise by 28. 43 cm • Arctic summer sea ice is likely to disappear in second half of the century • It is very likely that parts of the world will see an increase in the number of heat waves • Climate change is likely to lead to increased intensity of tropical storms Reference: IPCC February 2007 and BBC

Global Change: One of the Greatest Challenges of Our Time

Earth Science and Applications Themes Unknowns • Understand changing Earth • Learn causes of these changes • Response to such changes • Impact of such changes • Predict such changes ? ? ? Science Areas • • • Water and Energy Cycle Atmospheric Composition Carbon Cycle and Ecosystem Climate Variability and Change Weather Earth Surface and Interior Application Areas Natural Disasters Water Management Air Quality Agriculture Weather Ecosystems Climate Public Health

Do we have a choice? A tangled web Earthquake/ Tsunami Occurrence of Floods Contaminated Fresh Water Supply Spread of Multiple Infectious Diseases Agriculture Efficiency Aerosol and Dust deposition and suspension Volcanic Eruption Severe Weather Fires Breathing problems Air Quality Public Health Anthropogenic or Technological Electric Grid Outages Shutdown City

Research, Technology & Application Process Research Loop Develop scientific questions Define geophysical variables to be measured Develop technologies to enable the measurements Improve Understanding, Increase Prediction Capabilities and apply for societal benefits Develop algorithms and models to interpret the results Reformulate scientific questions Readjust research priorities Refine measurement requirements

Research to Application – R 2 A GSFC GOCART GMAO Atmosphere Push Applied Research Domain MODELS Terra Aura Quik. Scat Partnership Pull End User/ Decision Maker Aqua TRMM Landsat-7 Remote Sensing Missions Science and Research Products User Specific Operational Products Benefits GISS Model III

Earth Science Applications - Partnerships • We partner with operational end users to adapt or adopt and demonstrate NASA research results for societal benefits NOAA International Red Cross DHS Bo. R Do. D Chesapeake Bay Program EPA EPRI USAID World Bank USFS GEO Several International Organizations Public agencies and organizations that have the mandate to serve the public through resource management, environmentally-related predictions and decision making

Problem Solving Observations Research Driven Models Reception of intelligence Information Knowledge Understanding of a science, art or technique Archived global observations or data sets provide necessary� Boundary Conditions� • In situ data • Airborne data • Historical data • Near Real Time Local observations (if available)� Region of Interest Meso-sacle models Regional Observations Develop Solutions

We make use of several sensors – Sensor Web • Terra • Aqua Malaria Rift Valley Fever Food Security • Aura River Forecasting • TRMM Floods/Land Slides • Land. Sat Air Quality • EO-1 Plume Trajectory Ground Circulating Currents • GRACE …. . • ACE …… • SOHO Earthquake precursor

Transcontinental Dust Storms Beijing, China Taklamakan Desert, China Source Regions Dust Front Asian Dust & microbes? Long Range Transport “ 2001 Perfect Dust Storm” TOMS Aerosol Index - time series

AIR NOW– Adapting MODIS Aerosol Data NASA-La. RC/USEPA Air Quality Applications Group Using MODIS DB for regional air quality assessment Finding correlation between MODIS aerosol optical thickness (AOD) and EPA ground based measurements Evaluate current EPA observational network (posts) as to its ability to show regional aerosol Relate MODIS AOD observations (red dots) to EPA ground station PM measurements (black time series) Remer/GSFC

South Africa’s Fire Early Warning System Geostationary Polar Orbit ESA’s MSG NASA’s Terra and Aqua Direct Broadcast Receiving Station Satellite Application Centre (SAC) South Africa End users Direct Broadcast Receiving Station National Weather Service South Africa Weather Service, South Africa MSG Fire-Algorithm (Philip Frost) Rapid Response System SAC(CSIR) MODIS Fire-Algorithm ESKOM Advanced Fire Information System (AFIS) http: //wamis. co. za Disaster Management Unit Weather Service Real-time feed Forest Department Geo. Database E-mail Alerts SAC Rapid Response System SMS/Text messages Active Fire Locations (Text files) Geo. Database Web Fire Mapper University of Maryland (http: //maps. geog. umd. edu) Web Fire Mapper maps. geog. umd. edu

Mekong Malaria in Tak, Thailand Aqua Landsat Terra TRMM 2 -Year Prediction of Malaria Cases Based on Environmental Parameters (temperature, precipitation, humidity, vegetation index) Satellite Vegetation Data used for Insecticide Planning Field data • Surface Hydrology • Climate Prediction • Vector Habitat • Transmission • Risk Prediction Kiang/GSFC

Detection of Harmful Algal Blooms • Increased frequency of harmful algal blooms or HABs is documented worldwide • Primary goal of current research: Detect these phenomena and determine potential linkages to human activities, such as enhanced nutrient inputs in coastal waters Red Tide Bloom off West Florida Steven E. Lohrenz (Univ. of Southern Miss. ) Sea. Wi. FS Satellite Image Showing Drifter Track During HAB Event

Summary We must conduct Science for Society -- Applications Majority of the societal problems are regional in nature Source or cause may be far from the area under study Both long term data sets play a vital role in establishing boundary conditions • Direct Readout offers an excellent source for investigating regional or meso-scale problems • Direct Readout provides a great opportunity to many nations where large space investments may not be easily achievable • It is an essential capability for World community to build capacity and apply space observations for societal benefits • •