NARUC Winter Committee Meetings Committee On Energy Resources

NARUC Winter Committee Meetings Committee On Energy Resources & the Environment

Low-Income Customer R&D Needs Ron Edelstein Gas Technology Institute ERE Committee February, 2017 Washington DC

Lower-Cost High-Efficiency Equipment for Low. Income Customers Water/Space Heater Combo System (90% + efficiency) Low-cost condensing water heater (90%+ efficiency) Low-Capacity ”Right Sized” Condensing Furnace (15 k-30 k Btu/hr, 90% + efficiency) 3

Residential ‘Low-Load’ Heating: One Size Does Not Fit All Combined Space and Water Systems Ø Improves utility/customer value proposition for water heating by piggy-backing on larger space heating load. Through wall packaged heating, cooling systems Low capacity ‘rightsized’ furnace Ø Systems represent growing portion of multi-family market Ø Low capacity high AFUE furnaces with full modulation, very small footprint, quiet Ø Manufacturers are beginning operation, variable speed to roll out condensing options blowers, and high efficiency Ø Equipment, system specification, Ø Barriers exist related to codes cooling and standards, as well as operation, and load profiles all Ø 15, 000 -30, 000 Btu/hr practical matters such as have significant impact on energy modulating down to 6, 000 condensate management and savings potential. Btu/hr compliance with voluntary Ø Market development and training programs (e. g. ENERGY Ø Ideal for multi-family with 2. 5 critical, new construction likely first STAR) inch supply ducts significant market entry point 4

NARUC Winter Committee Meetings Committee On Energy Resources & the Environment

Recent Research on Energy Efficiency Steven Nadel American Council for an Energy. Efficient Economy (ACEEE) February 2017

American Council for an Energy -Efficient Economy • Non-profit research organization • Founded in 1980 • Now have 55 staff and $8. 5 million/year budget • Funding comes from foundations, government agencies, contracts, conferences and corporate memberships

State Scorecard 2016 8 Source: ACEEE 2016. http: //aceee. org/research-report/u 1606

Utility-Sector Spending on Energy Efficiency Programs Source: ACEEE, 2016 State Energy Efficiency Scorecard.

Savings from Utility-Sector Energy Efficiency Programs 200 5. 4% of sales in 2015 150 Incremental Annual Savings 100 Total Annual Savings 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 1994 1993 1992 1991 0 1990 50 1989 Billion k. Wh 250 Source: ACEEE using EIA Form 861 data. 0. 7% in 2015

Levelized Electricity Resource Costs

In the electricity sector, efficiency is now our 3 rd largest resource… Source: ACEEE 2016. Greatest Energy Story You Haven’t 12 Heard. http: //aceee. org/research-report/u 1604

…and could become our largest resource by 2030 Source: ACEEE 2016. Greatest Energy Story You Haven’t 13 Heard. http: //aceee. org/research-report/u 1604

Electricity use with increased EE policies Source: ACEEE 2016. Greatest Energy Story You Haven’t 14 Heard. http: //aceee. org/research-report/u 1604

Source: ACEEE 2016. Greatest Energy Story You Haven’t 15 Heard. http: //aceee. org/research-report/u 1604

Total Savings in 2006 from Utility Efficiency Programs Source: ACEEE

Total Savings in 2015 from Utility Efficiency Programs Source: ACEEE

Business Model for Electric Utilities Total of 19 states Source: ACEEE

Business Model for Electric Utilities Total of 30 states Source: ACEEE

Energy Efficiency Targets 26 states with EERS in place and fully funded Source: ACEEE 20

Impact of EERS (2015 data) Policy No EERS Yes EERS Average EE investments Average EE as % of savings as No. of states revenues* % of sales* 24 0. 7 0. 3 26 Source: ACEEE. 2. 6 1. 2

Average Cost of Saved Energy and Energy Savings as a % of Retail Sales for Major Utility Programs Source: ACEEE, Big Savers, 2016. http: //aceee. org/research-report/u 1601

2030 Savings from Major Measures Total savings = 1031 TWh; 21. 5% of projected 2030 US electric use after adjusting to eliminate overlaps Source: ACEEE, New Horizons, 2015. http: //aceee. org/research-report/u 1507

Intelligent Efficiency in Buildings • Use data and sensors to identify problems, then solve them • NRDC study of 3 ~Energy Star offices using At. Site achieved 13% average savings. Other vendors report similar results

Smart Thermostat Sales and Projections

Green Banks Number and dollar amount of projects facilitated by green banks Source: ACEEE, Green Bank Accounting http: //aceee. org/researchreport/f 1602 Connecticut C&I savings goals. Blue are utility programs, orange is Green Bank.

Role of energy efficiency in alleviating household energy burdens 27

Range of energy burden quartiles for lowincome households Source: ACEEE 2016. Lifting the High Energy Burden in 28 America’s Largest Cities. http: //aceee. org/research-report/u 1602

Electricity Scenarios for New England Source: ACEEE, Electricity demand scenarios for New England http: //aceee. org/research-report/u 1605

Change in Sales – Accelerated Case 2040 Source: ACEEE, Electricity demand scenarios for New England http: //aceee. org/research-report/u 1605

Preliminary Southeast Scenarios Source: Draft ACEEE report to be published spring 2017.

Southeast Summer & Winter Peak Demand (preliminary) Accelerated scenario High energy demand scenario Source: Draft ACEEE report to be published spring 2017.

Conclusions 1. Energy efficiency (EE) has been a critical resource and can be an even bigger contributor in the future. 2. There are many available EE measures that can and should be promoted in the coming decade; we are not running out of opportunities. 3. EE can reduce energy burdens for low- and moderate income households. 4. Trends in EE, PV, DR, EV and HP will affect electric demand, perhaps slowing growth in the 2020 s but increasing it in the 2030 s

Some Other Recent ACEEE Reports • • • Utility multifamily and low-income programs working groups & reports: http: //aceee. org/research-report/a 1601, 2 more forthcoming Scaling up residential retrofits: http: //aceee. org/research-report/a 1605 Behavior change programs: http: //aceee. org/research-report/b 1601 Programs for small businesses: http: //aceee. org/research-report/u 1607 Cutting energy use in half (all sectors): http: //aceee. org/white-paper/pathways-cuttingenergy-use

Forthcoming Reports • Smart buildings • Intelligent efficiency baseline • Electricity demand scenarios for the southeast • Rate design and EE • Utility EE scorecard • Rural energy burdens

Selected 2017 Research Projects • • • EE and distribution planning EM&V for the future Smart homes and smart buildings deep dive Market transformation lessons learned and future directions EV best practice programs & policies Programs integrating energy & water efficiency Influencing customers to accept longer paybacks Best practice low-income programs Emerging CHP directions

Contact Information Steven Nadel snadel@aceee. org 202 -507 -4011

NARUC Winter Committee Meetings Committee On Energy Resources & the Environment