Naples Bay Rookery Bay Hydrodynamic Model Kick Off

Naples Bay / Rookery Bay Hydrodynamic Model Kick Off Meeting Y. Peter Sheng & Vladimir A. Paramygin Coastal and Oceanographic Engineering Program University of Florida March 31, 2014

Scope of Work Task Scope Deliverable (weeks from start) 1 Kick-off meeting to discuss methodology, deliverables, scenarios, etc. 2 Model calibration and verification. Setup and run the model for a 2 -year period 3 Development of alternatives. Optimize freshwater inflows to Naples Bay and Rookery Bay 21 4 Model applications. Evaluation of alternative scenarios. 28 5 Parallel computing setup. 12 1 15/20

CH 3 D Model Domain

Map with Henderson Creek showing

CH 3 D Model Domain Projection UTM Zone 17, NAD 1983 Average cell size (inshore) ~ 35 meters Average cell size (offshore) ~ 65 meters

Model Configuration n n 3 D model, baroclinic, with 4 -8 vertical layers Forcing: n Wind n Tidal constituents (10 components) n Rainfall n Flow rates at river boundaries Tidal constituent Amplitude Phase K 1 47. 7 -27. 1 O 1 5. 7 91. 0 P 1 9. 6 153. 0 Q 1 2. 7 -51. 1 K 2 14. 3 179. 8 M 2 15. 8 -0. 1 N 2 5. 2 19. 4 S 2 3. 0 -40. 2 SA 7. 5 171. 1 SSA 3. 0 226. 5

Water Level Model-Data Comparisons NOAA station Naples, FL USGS station 02291310 Gordon River

Salinity Model-Data Comparison USGS station 02291310 (Gordon River)

Model-Data Comparison Statistics Station Name Data Type r 2 RMSE USGS 02291310 Gordon River at Rowing Club Point Near Naples, FL Water Level 0. 83 8 cm USGS 02291315 Naples Bay at City Dock Near Naples, FL Water Level 0. 87 9 cm USGS 02291330 Naples Bay at Gordon Pass Near Naples, FL Water Level 0. 90 6 cm 8725110 Naples, FL Water Level 0. 93 6 cm USGS 02291310 Gordon River at Rowing Club Point Near Naples, FL Salinity (bottom/top) 0. 52 0. 57 8 ppt USGS 02291315 Naples Bay at City Dock Near Naples, FL Salinity (bottom/top) 0. 81 0. 79 6 ppt USGS 02291330 Naples Bay at Gordon Pass Near Naples, FL Salinity (bottom/top) 0. 90 0. 89 2 ppt

Additional Calibration - Data needed to reduce errors n n n Bathymetry data – while there is a good bathymetric dataset available for the Naples Bay, the data for the Rookery Bay is rather sparse and channels may not be represented correctly in the model, thus causing incorrect flow rates through these channels. Flow rates at river boundaries – the data provided by Taylor Engineering is limited to annually averaged flows. Higher frequency (daily or hourly) flow rates at river boundaries could significantly improve results of salinity simulations. Data at GG-1 (>120 sq mi catchment and major urban area of BCB) is of particular importance. Tidal boundary conditions – two of the tidal constituents, SA and SSA, with period of 12 and 6 months, respectively, are comparable to or longer than the period of simulation. Accuracy of calibration for these constituents could have significant error. A 2 -4 year simulation would be desirable to calibrate and verify these constituents.

Flow Scenarios to Determine the Desirable Diversion Strategy n n n Current Henderson Creek diversion plan: 100 cfs will be diverted to Rookery Bay n What are other alternatives? 50 cfs? 200 cfs? n Should the diverted flow be a fraction of the average daily flow? n What about during low flow or drought condition? Wet and dry season? What is the target (desirable) salinity range inside Naples Bay and Rookery Bay? n What are the benchmark species? What are the associated target ranges? n Naples Bay - Seagrass and Oyster - 15 -20 ppt n Rookery Bay - ? How are the specific target areas? The entire Naples Bay? How about short-term pulse releases? n How frequent? Over what period of time? For the future – Is there a need for a real-time forecasting system to predict the need to adjust the diversion plan?

Possible Scenarios Scenario Duration River Flow (Simulated/ Observed) River Flow Frequency Henderson Creek Diversion (cfs) 1 20 Years NSM* No 2 20 Years NSM* 100 cfs 3 Dry Year No 4 Wet Year No 5 Dry Year 100 cfs 6 Wet Year 100 cfs 7 Dry Year 10% of flow rate 8 Dry Year 10% of flow with minimum threshold 9 Wet Year 10% of flow rate Tidal Forcing Wind Forcing *NSM - Natural System Model

Metric for Evaluation of Alternatives n Specific Target Areas? Entire Naples Bay? Rookery Bay? n Target Salinity Frequency (Monthly? Daily? Hourly? ) and Range? n Target Species? Oyster? Seagrass?