Naomi Surgi and HWRF Team NCEPEnvironmental Modeling Center

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™ Naomi Surgi and HWRF Team NCEP/Environmental Modeling Center WHERE AMERICA’S CLIMATE AND WEATHER

™ Naomi Surgi and HWRF Team NCEP/Environmental Modeling Center WHERE AMERICA’S CLIMATE AND WEATHER SERVICES BEGIN

HWRF TEAM Bob T. , Qingfu L. , Vijay T. , Young K. ,

HWRF TEAM Bob T. , Qingfu L. , Vijay T. , Young K. , Janna O’C, Zack Z. Also, Many thanks to Isaac G. & URI Morris B……

Overview • HWRF ’ 07 implementation strategy, initial HWRF config, T&E requirements • 2007

Overview • HWRF ’ 07 implementation strategy, initial HWRF config, T&E requirements • 2007 HWRF • 2008 implementation Advancement of HWRF GFS, Waves

HWRF Development § CONDUCTED 27 EXPERIMENTS since 2002 , ie: 27 versions of the

HWRF Development § CONDUCTED 27 EXPERIMENTS since 2002 , ie: 27 versions of the HWRF § Tested each upgrade (numerics, physics, coupling) for clean comparisons - comprehensive testing (>200 runs) § FINALIZED HWRF FOR ‘ 07 § PERFORMED EXTENSIVE COMPARISONS BETWEEN GFDL AND HWRF FOR MULTIPLE SEASONS AND STORMS - THREE SEASONS (‘ 04, ’ 05, ’ 06) for both ATL and EPAC basins Note: HWRF, 1745 runs; GFDL 900 runs; HWRF ran 4 X/day, GFDL 2 X/day. Ran homogeneous comparison between HWRF and GFDL for 0 Z and 12 Z runs § NO TUNING OF HWRF (tuning has a lot of impact on track and intensity skill) § NO OCEAN COUPLING IN EPAC

Hurricane Forecast System Requirements Document for T 20 Requirements document co-written between EMC and

Hurricane Forecast System Requirements Document for T 20 Requirements document co-written between EMC and TPC for transition to NCEP operations of a new candidate hurricane model…or for annual or periodic upgrades to an existing operational hurricane model for transition to NCEP operations. Sets standards for: Performance testing – case load, eval criteria System functionality – initialization, coupling Computational performance

THE HWRF SYSTEM (Initial Operating Capability) 2007 Movable, 2 - way nested grid (9

THE HWRF SYSTEM (Initial Operating Capability) 2007 Movable, 2 - way nested grid (9 km; 27 km/42 L; ~75 X 75) Advanced Physics (GFS&GFDL) Advanced vortex initialization – made use of prototype GSI 3 D var (advancement over bogus) POM ocean (w/loop current init – same as GFDL)

2007 HURRICANE SEASON

2007 HURRICANE SEASON

HWRF Hurricane Dean August 11– 22, 2007 GFDL

HWRF Hurricane Dean August 11– 22, 2007 GFDL

08/22 18 Z Cat. 2 Cat. 1 08/21 06 Z Cat. 4 Cat. 5

08/22 18 Z Cat. 2 Cat. 1 08/21 06 Z Cat. 4 Cat. 5 08/18 00 Z Cat. 2 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Cat. 3 08/20 18 Z Cat. 1 08/17 12 Z Tropical Storm 08/16 00 Z Hurricane Dean 5 day forecasts of maximum winds starting from 8/19/06 Z 90 kts Cat. 2 139 kts Cat. 5 08/22 18 Z 08/20 18 Z TS Cat 1 Cat 2 Cat 3 08/19 06 Z Cat 4 Cat 5

HWRF Hurricane Felix Aug. 28–Sep. 05, 2007 GFDL

HWRF Hurricane Felix Aug. 28–Sep. 05, 2007 GFDL

HWRF Hurricane Humberto September 12 -13, 2007 GFDL

HWRF Hurricane Humberto September 12 -13, 2007 GFDL

HWRF Hurricane Noel GFDL October 25 -November 02, 2007

HWRF Hurricane Noel GFDL October 25 -November 02, 2007

EPAC

EPAC

HWRF Track

HWRF Track

HWRF GFDL Tropical Storm Kiko July 14 – 24, 2007

HWRF GFDL Tropical Storm Kiko July 14 – 24, 2007

TS KIKO

TS KIKO

TS BARBARA HWRF

TS BARBARA HWRF

Hurricane Henriette GFDL Nearly a perfect forecast…. .

Hurricane Henriette GFDL Nearly a perfect forecast…. .

2008 IMPLEMENTATION § UPGRADE HURRICANE INITIALIZATION § UPGRADE PHYSICS T&E – rerun ‘ 05

2008 IMPLEMENTATION § UPGRADE HURRICANE INITIALIZATION § UPGRADE PHYSICS T&E – rerun ‘ 05 and Aug/Sept. 07 To run In parallel: Vortex initialization w/assimilation of airborne doppler radar obs HWRF + HYCOM + WAVEWATCH

WAVEWATCH III 5 – Coupled HWRF-HYCOM-WAVEWATCH model system. • HWRF-HYCOM parallel runs 2008 hurricane

WAVEWATCH III 5 – Coupled HWRF-HYCOM-WAVEWATCH model system. • HWRF-HYCOM parallel runs 2008 hurricane season, test with adding WAVEWATCH late FY 2008. • WAVEWATCH w/ relocating inner HWRF nest only. • Coupling based on Hara’s stress parameterization. – Developing two-way nested WAVEWATCH with relocatable nest for expanded coupling (2008 -2009). – Expand (shallow water) physics (2009 and beyond).

2 WAVEWATCH III Resolution in minutes of the 8 grids making up the multi-grid

2 WAVEWATCH III Resolution in minutes of the 8 grids making up the multi-grid model

3 WAVEWATCH III Katrina old WNA model new multi-grid model including surf zone physics

3 WAVEWATCH III Katrina old WNA model new multi-grid model including surf zone physics

GFS/Proposed data assimilation and model changes § FOTO (First-Order Time-extrapolation to Observations- simplified 4

GFS/Proposed data assimilation and model changes § FOTO (First-Order Time-extrapolation to Observations- simplified 4 -D var), § Situation dependent variances § Improvements in physics, treatment of clouds § Mountain blocking, gravity waves Ø Improved analyses in global tropics Ø Improved GFS track skill

2008 -2012 HURRICANE UPGRADE PLAN § Data assimilation: Continuous upgrades to HWRF hurricane core

2008 -2012 HURRICANE UPGRADE PLAN § Data assimilation: Continuous upgrades to HWRF hurricane core initialization through advanced 4 -D data assimilation for winds and reflectivity (requires nearly continuous obs for hurricane structure from storm top to surface beginning in depression stages through evolution of storm lifecycle). Augment doppler data with GPS sondes. Also, explore use of satellite microwave data. UAV’s? § Model upgrades: Increase resolution – 4 -6 km/64 -100 L. Hurricane Ensembles for structure/intensity: Hi-res hurricane multi-model ensembles, e. g. HWRF, GFDL, NAM, GFDN, COAMPS? Work underway

§ Model Physics: Continuous upgrades to atm/ocean boundary layer, microphysics/deep convection (cloud resolving scales?

§ Model Physics: Continuous upgrades to atm/ocean boundary layer, microphysics/deep convection (cloud resolving scales? ), radiation § Advance Wave Model (WAVEWATCH III) to forecast waves up to the beach, ie: improve non-linear interactions, surf zone shallow water physics, wave interactions with currents § Coupling to land surface model w/ adv. Sfc. Physics for improved rainfall forecasts at landfall. Important input to hydrology and streamflow models to address inland flooding. ALL hurricane model physics upgrades dependent on allowable resolution, e. g. affordable complexity of microphysics, sea spray, explicit representation of all clouds.

Advancing HURRICANE WRF System 08 09 10 11 Mesoscale Data Assimilation for Hurricane Core

Advancing HURRICANE WRF System 08 09 10 11 Mesoscale Data Assimilation for Hurricane Core 12 Radial velocities Advance reflectivity - 4 DVAR Atm. Model physics and resolution upgrades (continuous) Atm/ocean boundary layer: wave drag, enthalpy fluxes Microphysics, radiation Incr. Res: 4 -6 km/100 L? . HWRF Ensembles Land surface Coupling Waves: multi-grid/surf-zone physics Ocean: 4 km. - continuous upgrades in Ocean Data Assimilation SS

Hurricane-Wave-Ocean-Surge-Inundation Coupled Models NCEP/Environmental Modeling Center NOS Atmosphere- Ocean-Wave-Land land coastal waters HWRF SYSTEM

Hurricane-Wave-Ocean-Surge-Inundation Coupled Models NCEP/Environmental Modeling Center NOS Atmosphere- Ocean-Wave-Land land coastal waters HWRF SYSTEM NMM hurricane atmosphere NOAH LSM runoff fluxes Atmosphere/oceanic Boundary Layer winds air temp. wave spectra radiative fluxes other fluxes SST currents WAVEWATCH III Spectral wave model HYCOM 3 D ocean circulation model wave fluxes High resolution Coastal, Bay & Estuarine hydrodynamic model surge inundation elevations currents 3 D salinities temperatures HWRF/multi-model hi-res ensembles (2013) for adv. storm surge model

HWRF and the community • HWRF code available to community w/op imp • 1

HWRF and the community • HWRF code available to community w/op imp • 1 st DTC HWRF tutorial – 2009? (resources permitting) • HWRF team establishing many working collaborations, e. g. URI, FSU, CSU, Univ. of Hawaii, PSU, NRL, UKMO, JMA

NOAA’s Aircraft in Hurricanes Working on flight strategies for GIV and P-3’s Operational requirement

NOAA’s Aircraft in Hurricanes Working on flight strategies for GIV and P-3’s Operational requirement for core data at 0 Z, 12 Z to initialize HWRF core circulation (06, 18 Z ? ) Two mission profiles: Environment & CORE Observations: GPS, Radar, AXBT’s THANKS TO AOC AND HRD

THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION…

THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION…

Research model forecasts of storm intensity for Hurricane Katrina showing benefit of high (1.

Research model forecasts of storm intensity for Hurricane Katrina showing benefit of high (1. 6 km) resolution High-res models (1. 6 km) Obs GFDL model NHC Forecast Global models Katrina Landfall

Research model forecasts of storm intensity for Hurricane Katrina showing benefit of high (1.

Research model forecasts of storm intensity for Hurricane Katrina showing benefit of high (1. 6 km) resolution (S. Chen) Intensity Forecast of Hurricane Katrina 0000 UTC 27 August 2005 High-res models (1. 6 km) Obs HWRF model GFDL model NHC Forecast Global models Katrina Landfall HWRF

IN FACT: • From 114 hrs to 60 hrs before landfall, seven HWRF forecasts

IN FACT: • From 114 hrs to 60 hrs before landfall, seven HWRF forecasts predicted rapid intensification of Hurricane Katrina, predicting Category 5 Hurricane • Three HWRF forecasts predicted Category 3 landfall for Hurricane Katrina • Three HWRF forecasts of max. intensity coincided with observed maximum intensity

Obs Max. Intensity: 150 kts HWRF Max. Intensity: 147 kts Katrina Landfall

Obs Max. Intensity: 150 kts HWRF Max. Intensity: 147 kts Katrina Landfall

Obs Max. Intensity: 150 kts HWRF Max. Intensity: 144 kts Katrina Landfall

Obs Max. Intensity: 150 kts HWRF Max. Intensity: 144 kts Katrina Landfall

Obs Max. Intensity: 150 kts HWRF Max. Intensity: 138 kts Katrina Landfall

Obs Max. Intensity: 150 kts HWRF Max. Intensity: 138 kts Katrina Landfall

Obs Max. Intensity: 150 kts HWRF Max. Intensity: 140 kts Katrina Landfall

Obs Max. Intensity: 150 kts HWRF Max. Intensity: 140 kts Katrina Landfall

Obs Max. Intensity: 150 kts HWRF Max. Intensity: 156 kts Katrina Landfall

Obs Max. Intensity: 150 kts HWRF Max. Intensity: 156 kts Katrina Landfall

Obs Max. Intensity: 150 kts HWRF Max. Intensity: 150 kts Katrina Landfall

Obs Max. Intensity: 150 kts HWRF Max. Intensity: 150 kts Katrina Landfall

Obs Max. Intensity: 150 kts HWRF Max. Intensity: 154 kts Katrina Landfall

Obs Max. Intensity: 150 kts HWRF Max. Intensity: 154 kts Katrina Landfall

Hurricane Initialization in HWRF model • Regional GSI analysis cycle (3 D VAR) GSI

Hurricane Initialization in HWRF model • Regional GSI analysis cycle (3 D VAR) GSI analysis at time t-6 9 hours forecast at time t-3, t, t+3 t t+6 Relocate the modified hurricane vortex GSI analysis at time t 3 or more days forecast

 • Hurricane vortex modification – Intensity correction – Better balanced wind, temperature and

• Hurricane vortex modification – Intensity correction – Better balanced wind, temperature and pressure fields – Storm depth correction – Moisture and hydrometeor correction • GSI analysis – Airborne radar data (parallel run)

FOTO • (formerly called Simplified 4 d-Var) • At no additional cost includes: –

FOTO • (formerly called Simplified 4 d-Var) • At no additional cost includes: – Includes time extrapolation to observation using slow modes – Improves fit to obs – Some slowing of convergence

3 D-VAR Difference from Background Forecast Updated Forecast T-3 Obs - Background Time T=0

3 D-VAR Difference from Background Forecast Updated Forecast T-3 Obs - Background Time T=0 T+3 Analysis

FOTO Difference from Background Forecast Updated Forecast T-3 Obs - Background Time T=0 T+3

FOTO Difference from Background Forecast Updated Forecast T-3 Obs - Background Time T=0 T+3 Analysis

Situation dependent background variances • Variances modified based on 9 hr-3 hr differences –

Situation dependent background variances • Variances modified based on 9 hr-3 hr differences – Increased in rapidly changing locations – Decreased in others (global mean preserved) • No additional cost

NOAA’s Aircraft in Hurricanes Working on flight strategies for GIV and P-3’s Working to

NOAA’s Aircraft in Hurricanes Working on flight strategies for GIV and P-3’s Working to obtain resources for flight hrs/add’l crews Operational requirement for core data at 0 Z, 12 Z to initialize HWRF core circulation (06, 18 Z ? ) Operational requirement for AXBT’s Two mission profiles: Environment & CORE Observations: GPS, Radar, AXBT’s New operational status of P-3’s

operational parallel

operational parallel