Murder on the Orient Express A mystery of

Murder on the Orient Express A mystery of Modern Man Prof. Aldwyn Cooper ALT Meeting Reading 27 th October 2005

Clarke's First Law ‘When a distinguished but elderly scientist states that something is possible, he is almost certainly right. When he states that something is impossible, he is very probably wrong. ’ Arthur C. Clarke

• Introducing the Cast • The Urgent Call • The Commotion in the night • Examining the Corpse • Stuck in the snowdrift • Breaking Free • An unscheduled stop • Using the Little Grey Cells • Safe Arrival

Original Film Cast Hercule Poirot . . Albert Finney Mrs. Hubbard . . Lauren Bacall Signor Bianchi . . Martin Balsam Greta Ohlsson . . Ingrid Bergman Countess Andrenyi . . Jacqueline Bisset Pierre Paul Michel . . Jean-Pierre Cassel Colonel Arbuthnot . . Sean Connery Mr. Beddoes . . John Gielgud Princess Dragomiroff . . Wendy Hiller Hector Mac. Queen . . Anthony Perkins Mary Debenham . . Vanessa Redgrave Hildegarde . . Rachel Roberts Mr. Ratchett . . Richard Widmark Count Andrenyi . . Michael York Mr. Hardman . . Colin Blakely

ALT Cast Hercule Poirot . . Robert? Reich Mrs. Hubbard . . Diana Laurillard Signor Bianchi . . MLE software suppliers Greta Ohlsson . . Student Services Countess Andrenyi . . Carol Twigg Pierre Paul Michel . . Web geeks Colonel Arbuthnot . . Bruxelles Mr. Beddoes . . The UKe. U Princess Dragomiroff . . The Educational Establishment Hector Mac. Queen . . Matthew Pitinsky Mary Debenham . . Df. EE Hildegarde . . Ruth Kelly Mr. Ratchett . . International HE Markets Count Andrenyi . . Curtis Bonk Mr. Hardman . . Colin Blakely

The Urgent Call “It doesn’t matter whether you are in a developed or developing nation, the drivers of the future are: – Globalisation – Demographics – Technology A nation’s wealth is its people and the respect that is shown by and to them. Prof. Robert Reich, Brandeis University and UC Berkeley Secretary for Labor to Clinton Administration

Globalisation • The Poverty of Protectionism • The Importance of Internationalisation • The Increasing value of research and education • The Educational Export Market Models • Internationalisation - a Backlash ? • Economic Drivers

Demographics • • • Shift in World populations Increased economic pressures Developed nation baby boomers The age imbalance black hole Growing Teacher Shortage worldwide

Technology • Technology is an irresistible driver • Technology is an enabler • e-Education offers options for efficiency gains, real learner support and customer care • Content Management • Disaggregated systems

The Commotion in the Night

New technology The Current Reality There has been no real productivity growth acceleration in the 99 percent of the [US] economy located outside the sector which manufactures computer hardware. . . . Indeed, far from exhibiting a productivity acceleration, the productivity slowdown in manufacturing has gotten worse; when computers are stripped out of the durable manufacturing sector, there has been a further productivity slowdown in durable manufacturing in 1995 -00 as compared to 1972 - 95, and no acceleration at all in nondurable manufacturing. ‘Beyond the Digital Economy’ Conceicao, Gibson, Heitor & Sirilli

Being Digital or Being Wise The concepts of “knowledge economy” and “knowledge worker” are based on the view that information and knowledge are at the centre of economic growth and development. The ability to produce and use information effectively is thus a vital source of skills for many individuals. OECD 2000.

Being Digital or Being Wise Much attention has been devoted to digital technologies, a more fundamental change at the start of the new millennium is the increasing importance of knowledge for economic prosperity and the emergence of a learning society. ‘Technological Forecasting & Social Change’ Conceição et al. (2001),

Growth in the KBI sector Knowledge-based industries include high level services and the high and medium-high technology manufacturing sectors, the gradual transition towards knowledge-based economies has intensified in the last part of the 20 th century. According to the OECD more than 50% of the OECD countries’ GDP is associated with knowledge-based industries. It is asserted that the intensity of the acceleration of knowledge creation and diffusion requires a more dynamic characterization and that we should speak about the emergence of a learning society.

UK Knowledge Industry growth

Global Knowledge Need • • • Education Environment Energy Electronics Engineering • • • Media Medicine Management Agriculture Biotechnology

Identifying Priorities Fundamentally, for a real learning economy, the performance of knowledge-rich competitive environments depend on the quality of human resources (their skills, competencies, education level, learning capability) and on the activities that exploit the generation and diffusion of knowledge. In a context of globalization, the development of research and education agendas on technology policy , the management of innovation and communication of knowledge are critical. ‘Beyond the Digital Economy’ Conceicao, Gibson, Heitor & Sirilli

World Investment in Higher Education

Examining the Corpse

Status Quo - present trends continue • Polarisation between HE systems with a divergence between Anglo Saxon systems (increasingly global) and others. • World skills continue to be most important policy approaches in transnational education but revenue generating approaches continue to gain in importance. • National system of quality assurance, accreditation and recognition of qualification and immigration policies will play a leading role in regulating international mobility. Trade agreements will play a secondary role.

Three Globalisation Scenarios • The Competition Scenario • The South Africa Scenario • The Backlash Scenario

The Competition Scenario • US regains ground and organises effectively • Australia and New Zealand continue their rise • New international entrants offer low cost access including Russia, India and China • Additional private sector supply including University of Phoenix, Laureate, Career Education Corporation • New entrants to the FE and HE market

The South Africa Scenario • • Pre 2000, unrestrained foreign and private activity Climate of suspicion and profiteering Imposition of branch model and anti franchising Foreign provider numbers fell drastically Regulatory tightening Rising domestic supplier and export League table laws.

The Backlash Scenario • • • Rising UK domestic fees Demand exceeds supply Value for money concerns Domestic HEIs increase quality supply Governments concerned at skill loss Perception that non UK students favoured for financial reasons • Foreign students object to ghettoes

New Competition • Competition from HE in emerging countries will grow – China and India might become major first providers of transnational education. • Student mobility to OECD countries becomes increasingly elitist. • Slower growth in cross border mobility of students to OECD countries but increased mobility of academic staff, programmes and providers. • Trade agreements play an important role in regulating transnational higher education. • It become increasingly difficult for Western governments to regulate their HE systems as they become increasingly independent of state funding.

Stuck in the Snowdrift

I’ve seen the past and it worked! • National Development Programme in Computer assisted learning (1973 – 77) • Manpower Services commission ‘Tech’ project (1980 s) • Development of European Learning Through Technological Advance (DELTA 1988 - 2000)

I’ve seen the past and it worked! Seymour Papert Donald Norman B. F. Skinner Al Bork Patrick Suppes David Merrill Marvin Minsky

Clarke's Prediction About Fanatics! ‘Fanatics are always followed by fools, of which there is an inexhaustible supply. ’ John D. Clarke

Breaking free

The Pressures of the Present • Technology • Expectations • Efficiency • Exigency • Economics

I’ve seen the future and it works!

www. obhe. ac. uk

An Unscheduled Stop

Safe Arrival

Developing competitive advantage Narrow / unclear agenda Majority of UK provision ge still here. ta an dv e. A Ro t ute om oc p tiv eti Isolation, uncoordinated, minimal data, no impact assessment Integrated development / commercial agenda Integration, coordination, data, evaluation

Strategic Approach University Collaboration National Staff Development Government & European Strategy Student Services, Customer Service Centre Market Centred Approach Co-ordination Rights Inter- Management operability Quality Assurance & Research

Use the little grey cells !

Time for revolution • This is not change, it is paradigm shift. • T. S. Kuhn has shown that when scientific paradigms can no longer support the evidence a revolution takes place. • Revolutions are slow to build but then are swift and savage. • Strength alone is not enough - teamwork and knowledge of the terrain is paramount. • Only the bold and fleet of foot will survive.

Clark’s Fourth Law Every revolutionary idea passes through three stages of reaction: – 1. It is completely impossible. Don't waste my time. – 2. It is possible, but not worth doing. – 3. I said it was a good idea all along.

Fear of the future Failures of imagination Failures of courage Arthur C. Clarke

Murder on the Orient Express A mystery of Modern Man END