MUNICH RE TOOLS FOR STANDARDISED NAT CAT DATA

MUNICH RE TOOLS FOR STANDARDISED NAT CAT DATA COLLECTION AND HAZARD MAPPING 2 nd Conference of the OECD International Network on the Financial Management of Large Scale Catastrophes Peter Hoeppe Geo Risks Research/Corporate Climate Centre

Munich Re Nat. Cat. SERVICE – One of the world‘s most comprehensive databases on natural catastrophes § From 1980 until today all loss events § For USA and selected countries in Europe all loss events since 1970 § Retrospectively all Great Natural Catastrophes since 1950 § In addition all major historical events starting from 79 AD – eruption of Mt. Vesuvio (3, 000 historical data sets) § Currently more than 26, 000 events documented Natural catastrophes 2008 Earthquake, tsunami, volcanic eruption Storm Flood Extreme temperature (heat wave, forest fires) Great natural catastrophes: Earthquake China Hurricane Ike Cyclone Nargis Winter damage China © 2009 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, Nat. Cat. SERVICE. As at June 2009 2

MR Nat. Cat. SERVICE Breakdown into catastrophe categories Catastrophe class Overall losses Loss profile 1980 s* 1990 s* 2000 – 2008* and/or fatalities 0 Natural event No property damage - - - none 1 Small-scale loss event Small-scale property damage - - - 1 -9 2 Moderate loss event Moderate property and structural damage - - - > 10 3 Severe catastrophe Severe property, infrastructure and structural damage US$ >25 m US$ > 40 m US$ > 50 m > 20 4 Major catastrophe Major property, infrastructure and structural damage US$ > 85 m US$ > 160 m US$ > 200 m > 100 5 Devastating catastrophe Devastating losses within the affected region US$ > 275 m US$ > 400 m US$ > 500 m > 500 6 Great natural catastrophe „GREAT disaster“ Region’s ability to help itself clearly overtaxed, interregional/international assistance necessary, thousands of fatalities and/or hundreds of thousands homeless, substantial economic losses (UN definition). Insured losses reach exceptional orders of magnitude. * Losses adjusted to the decade average. © 2009 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, Nat. Cat. SERVICE. As at June 2009 3

MR Nat. Cat. SERVICE Entry details: example Hurrikan Ike Separate entries for the affected countries © 2009 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, Nat. Cat. SERVICE. As at June 2009 4

MR Nat. Cat. SERVICE Entry details: example Hurrican Ike Affected people Affected buildings Affected infrastructure Affected lines of business Number of fatalities Event description © 2009 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, Nat. Cat. SERVICE. As at June 2009 5

MR Nat. Cat. SERVICE Example: Hurrican Ike - Damages 30/o 09/2008 Overall losses Insured losses Munich Re share Additional loss information © 2009 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, Nat. Cat. SERVICE. As at June 2009 6

MR Nat. Cat. SERVICE Methodology Expert Consultation CRED Harmonizing terminology of disaster perils Participants Regina Below CRED EM-Dat Susanna Schwarz Swiss Re sigma Hajime Nakano ADRC GLIDE Julio Serge UNDP Des. Inventar Angelika Wirtz Petra Löw Munich Re Nat. Cat. SERVICE © 2009 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, Nat. Cat. SERVICE. As at June 2009 7

MR Nat. Cat. SERVICE Structure – peril families Family Geophysical Meteorological Main event Sub Peril Earthquake (Ground shaking) Volcanic eruption Fire following Mass movement dry Tsunami Hydrological Volcanic eruption Climatological Subsidence Rockfall Landslide © 2009 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, Nat. Cat. SERVICE. As at June 2009 8

MR Nat. Cat. SERVICE Structure – peril families Family Main event Sub Peril Tropical cyclone Geophysical Meteorological Winter storm (extratropical cyclone) Storm Tempest/Severe storm Hail storm Hydrological Lightning Tornado Climatological Local windstorm (orographic storm) Sandstorm/Dust storm Blizzard/Snowstorm © 2009 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, Nat. Cat. SERVICE. As at June 2009 9

MR Nat. Cat. SERVICE Structure – peril families Family Main event General flood Geophysical Flash flood Storm surge Meteorological Flood Hydrological Climatological Sub Peril Glacial lake outburst flood Mass movement wet Subsidence Avalanche Landslide © 2009 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, Nat. Cat. SERVICE. As at June 2009 10

MR Nat. Cat. SERVICE Structure – peril families Family Main event Heat wave Geophysical Cold wave / frost Extreme winter conditions Meteorological Hydrological Extreme temperature Drought Climatological Sub Peril Wildfire Drought Wildfire Unspecified © 2009 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, Nat. Cat. SERVICE. As at June 2009 11

MR Nat. Cat. SERVICE Sources Insurance Science Government, UN, EU, NGOs News-Agencies Meteorological Services © 2009 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, Nat. Cat. SERVICE. As at June 2009 12

Great natural catastrophes 1950 – 2008 Percentage distribution worldwide 285 Loss events 2, 000 Fatalities Overall losses* US$ 1, 970 bn Insured losses* US$ 410 bn *in 2008 values Geophysical events (Earthquake, tsunami, volcanic eruption) Meteorological events (Storm) *in 2008 values Hydrological events (Flood, mass movement) © 2009 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, Nat. Cat. SERVICE. As at June 2009 Climatological events (Extreme temperature, drought, forest fire) 13

MR Nat. Cat. SERVICE Services & Analysis Thematic maps © 2009 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, Nat. Cat. SERVICE. As at June 2009 14

MR Nat. Cat. SERVICE Download-Center 2008: 30 000 Downloads There are 50 documents available in each language version © 2009 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, Nat. Cat. SERVICE. As at June 2009 15

MR Nat. Cat. SERVICE Access&User Clients Analysts, investors Staff General public Nat. Cat. SERVICE Science Political committees © 2009 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, Nat. Cat. SERVICE. As at June 2009 16

NATHAN Web-based tool for risk analysis on natural perils worldwide plus additional information on major disasters and country profiles © 2009 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, Nat. Cat. SERVICE. As at June 2009 25. 09. 2021 17

MR Nat. Cat. SERVICE Services NATHAN - loss information © 2009 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, Nat. Cat. SERVICE. As at June 2009 25. 09. 2021 18

World Map of Natural Hazards/Globe of Natural Hazards – DVD / Wall map / Folding map 19

Globe of Natural Hazards 2009 – Products Wall map/Folding map – World Map of Natural Hazards

Globe of Natural Hazards 2009 – Products DVD – Globe of Natural Hazards

Globe of Natural Hazards 2009 What is new? Knowledge in a state of flux All global hazard maps have been updated

Globe of Natural Hazards 2009 What is new? New hazards Topics like flood and climate change are fully integrated

Globe of Natural Hazards 2009 What is new? Hazard pointer Power function supplies quick information on situation regarding natural hazards and climate change for any location on earth

Globe of Natural Hazards 2009 What is new? View from space Knowledge can be displayed with a satellite image in the background

Globe of Natural Hazards 2009 What is new? Networked knowledge Complex topics like risk management of natural hazards and climate change are linked in a sophisticated manner

Global Earthquake Model (GEM) Features An internationally sanctioned program initiated by the OECD, aiming to build an independent, open standard to calculate and communicate earthquake risk around the world Dynamic: an (updatable) model, not a map Global: covers also less developed/monitored areas according to uniform standards Open Access: a (transparent) tool to use for everybody Public Private Partnership: combining the strenghts of both sectors

GEM: A Public-Private Partnership Intergovernmental and Governmental Leading Scientific Institutes EU Zurich Industry International Scientific Organisations

GEM goals GEM is not an academic exercise. The goal is to convert “knowledge into action”. => Assess and monitor risk globally, especially in less well served regions => Raise risk awareness => Stimulate risk mitigation => Save lives, reduce losses and distribute the financial burden To achieve GEM’s goals we need “local champions”

GEM Setup GEM integrates developments at the forefront of seismological and engineering knowledge in three interconnected modules HAZARD § Probability of earthquake occurrence § Probability of ground motion Earthquake probabilities Building Code input RISK • Building inventories • Vulnerabilities • Probability of damage • Probability of loss of lives Earthquake impact User awareness of risk SOCIOECONOMIC IMPACT € • Probability of direct financial loss • Probability of indirect financial loss Financial tools Cost-Benefit Analysis

GEM Funding Scheme 5 -yr Build-up phase: 35 m€ m • Secretariat and global infrastructure • Global components • Regional implementation Annual maintenance and operation: 2 m€ m /yr 5 m€ 15 m€ Founding sponsor, Munich Re Other sponsors (in progress) Public Funds (in progress)

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