MULTIOBJECTIVE CONSUMER CHOICE MODELLING BASED ON DEPENDINGONCONTEXT PREFERENCE

MULTIOBJECTIVE CONSUMER CHOICE MODELLING BASED ON DEPENDING-ON-CONTEXT PREFERENCE Presenting author: Evgenij Ozhegov NRU HSE - Perm Dept. of Applied mathematics and social system modelling MCDM 2011, 14. 06. 2011

Outline • Generalization of the knowledge about recent consumer choice modelling approaches; • Consideration of particular models; • Formulating of the multiobjective problem of consumer choice; • Empirical issue of using such model. 2

Structure of consumer choice models • By the number of consumers models are divided on: • Individual demand models • Aggregated demand models • In terms of time factor: • Static models • Dynamic models • By the number of consumer choice criteria: • Singlecriterion models • Multicriteria models • By the homogeneity of the products: • Models with homogeneous products • Models with heterogeneous products 3

Classical rational demand • 4

Classical rational demand • 5

Why this model cannot be used? • 6

Particular models • 7

Multicriteria consumer choice problem (*) • 8

Solution concept using the method of criteria weighting • 9

How to use that model? • Why in different context we see different behavior (except for different <p, I>)? • Because of the different weights of the criteria during the time! 10

Dynamical case (**) • 11

Dynamical case (**) • 12

Fixing the consumtion effects • 13

Fixing the consumption effects • 14

Empirical issue: Giffen effect to buckwheat • The prices for the buckwheat rose from 45 rubles per kg to 140 in summer 2010; • There was unreasonably high demand for the buckwheat under the Giffen effect; • The sample contained 888 observations of the consumers from 25. 04. 2010 to 13. 08. 2010 (111 days, 8 random consumers in each day) in big retail store; • Known the amount of buckwheat bought, the price for 1 kg, expenditure and the weighted price level for each product set. 15

Empirical issue: Giffen effect to buckwheat • 16

Empirical issue: Giffen effect to buckwheat • 17

0 25. 04. 2010 27. 04. 2010 29. 04. 2010 01. 05. 2010 03. 05. 2010 07. 05. 2010 09. 05. 2010 11. 05. 2010 13. 05. 2010 15. 05. 2010 17. 05. 2010 19. 05. 2010 21. 05. 2010 23. 05. 2010 25. 05. 2010 27. 05. 2010 29. 05. 2010 31. 05. 2010 02. 06. 2010 04. 06. 2010 08. 06. 2010 10. 06. 2010 12. 06. 2010 14. 06. 2010 16. 06. 2010 18. 06. 2010 20. 06. 2010 22. 06. 2010 24. 06. 2010 26. 06. 2010 28. 06. 2010 30. 06. 2010 02. 07. 2010 04. 07. 2010 06. 07. 2010 08. 07. 2010 10. 07. 2010 12. 07. 2010 14. 07. 2010 16. 07. 2010 18. 07. 2010 20. 07. 2010 22. 07. 2010 24. 07. 2010 26. 07. 2010 28. 07. 2010 30. 07. 2010 01. 08. 2010 03. 08. 2010 05. 08. 2010 07. 08. 2010 09. 08. 2010 11. 08. 2010 13. 08. 2010 Importance of �� _2(�� ) Price for buckwheat 1 160 0. 9 140 0. 8 0. 7 120 0. 6 100 0. 5 80 0. 4 60 0. 3 0. 2 40 0. 1 20 0 18

0 -0. 5 25. 04. 2010 28. 04. 2010 01. 05. 2010 04. 05. 2010 07. 05. 2010 10. 05. 2010 13. 05. 2010 16. 05. 2010 19. 05. 2010 22. 05. 2010 25. 05. 2010 28. 05. 2010 31. 05. 2010 03. 06. 2010 09. 06. 2010 12. 06. 2010 15. 06. 2010 18. 06. 2010 21. 06. 2010 24. 06. 2010 27. 06. 2010 30. 06. 2010 03. 07. 2010 06. 07. 2010 09. 07. 2010 12. 07. 2010 15. 07. 2010 18. 07. 2010 21. 07. 2010 24. 07. 2010 27. 07. 2010 30. 07. 2010 02. 08. 2010 05. 08. 2010 11. 08. 2010 Predicted �� _1(�� ) Price for buckwheat 4 160 3. 5 140 3 120 2. 5 100 2 1. 5 80 1 60 0. 5 40 20 0 19

THANK YOU FOR THE ATTENTION! Your questions 20