MRAG Proposal for 5 Yr EFH Review Bob

MRAG Proposal for 5 -Yr EFH Review Bob Trumble Erika Zollett MRAG Americas, Inc.

Roles of Council and NOAA Fisheries • • MRAG will assist coordination of the EFH review by providing information to both the Council and NMFS Identify points of contact at NMFS, Council

Scope of 5 -yr Review • • • Identification and description of EFH Minimization of adverse effects of fishing Measures to conserve EFH, and HAPC MRAG will consider climate change, lionfish invasions, and use of habitat models. • MRAG will consider effectiveness of EFH regulations and descriptions

Climate Change Impacts • • Declines in fish production Species/ecological shifts Distribution changes Reduced reproductive capacity Local extinctions Coral bleaching and mortality Increased sea levels

Normal Reef

Bleached Reef

Predictions for Warming Water

Lionfish Invasions • Native to tropical coral reefs in waters of the South Pacific and Indian Oceans • In the Atlantic Ocean beginning in 1992 • Bermuda and the Bahamas in early 2000 s • Expand southward through Mexican, Central, and South American waters • Voracious predators w/o native predators • Vegetation overgrowing coral

Habitat Models • Habitat suitability model for PFMC/NWRO – Identified habitat distribution and usage – Model determined probability that any parcel is EFH • Find other potentially appropriate models • Determine which, if any, model would work for US Caribbean

HSP Contour Plots: Arrowtooth Flounder Adult Juvenile Larvae 13

EFH Model Output: Multiple Species Dover sole Adults Aurora rockfish Adults Lingcod Adults 14

EFH Model Output: HSP Threshold Shortspine Thornyhead Threshold: 0. 00 Threshold: 0. 60 15

Best Available Science • SSC to determine – – SSC Habitat Advisory Panel Experts General public MRAG will use SSC, HAP for info and review

Documentation • Report on changes in EFH information – – • Considerations that influenced review Description of process used to review Obsolete or new information Effectiveness of Caribbean EFH regulations Letter from NMFS (RA) to Council MRAG will gather the information and prepare a report for the Council to submit to SERO

Plans and Logistics • • Meeting 1 with Council Meeting 1 with SSC/HAP – – – • Meeting 2 with SSC/HAP – • Report of errors, obsolete information Obtain new information Draft Climate Change, Models Review report Meeting 2 with Council

EFH Review Schedule Meeting Dec Council 1 X SSC 1 - Distribution SSC 1 - Meeting SSC 2 - Distribution SSC 2 - Meeting Council 2 - Distribution Council 2 - Meeting Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun X X X