Moving from Storage Hype to Storage Reality March

Moving from Storage Hype to Storage Reality March 12 -15, 2019 Gaylord Texan Resort & Convention Center “Storage Industry Outlook Planning for 2019 and Beyond” Fred Moore President, Horison Information Strategies www. horison. com

Storage Hype Cycle Where are These on the Hype Cycle? NVMe, Io. T, SDS, HAMR, MAMR, SEDs, 3 D-Xpoint, Edge, 5 G, AI, Storage Tiering, DNA, Augmented Reality, Encryption, Namespace, Blockchain, Specialized Clouds, Erasure Coding, Quantum… . © 2019 Gartner, Inc Horison, Inc.

Waves of Change 2040 The Great Unknown… Technology Change Social Change Business Change Population Change Time

Global Datasphere Expansion is Never-ending However… Created Transient Data Persistent Data 7. 5 ZB Stored Source: https: //www. storagenewsletter. com/2018/11/28/global-datasphere-from-33 zb-in-2018 -to-175 zb-by-2025/

Global Datasphere by Data Class and Storage Tier WW Digital Data Stored in 2025 est. AI Will Enable Dynamic Data Classification, Optimal Mapping and Movement Throughout the Tiers. • Inference and Reasoning, Learn The Environment. • Predictive Storage Analytics Enable Data Movement, Optimal Placement for Better Performance. • Turn Data Into Information and Actions. Optimized Allocation Very High-performance – 5% Tier 0 SSD Mission/Business Critical & Online – 15% Tier 1 HDD Less Critical – 20% Tier 2 HDD Archive, Long-term – 60% Cloud Service Tier 3 Tape Archive, Legacy Data SSD, HDD, Tape The Cloud Can Support All Tiers Offline Cloud/Vault • Search Engines, Voice, Facial, Handwriting Rec. Source: Horison, Inc. The Digital Universe IDC

A Few Centers Look More Like This Here it’s All About Ultra-high Performance Amount of Stored Data • Aggregated Computer Power. • Massively Parallel Computation. Tier 0 RAM/Burst Buffers/L 1 -n Cache Tier 1 • Often More Than A Petaflop or 1015 Floating-point Operations Per Second. SSD/HDD • Compute Intensive Environment - Simulations, Modeling, Research and Analysis. Smaller Archives. Tier 2 • Requires High Network Performance, Ultra-fast Storage, High IOPs, Large Amounts Of Memory. HDD Tier 3 Tape Archive, Legacy Data Hyper-scale, Ultra-scale, HPC, Exascale • Heat Density Challenges. Source; Horison, Inc. www. horison. com

IT Performance Gap Grows Computing and I/O Speeds Diverge CAGR for Compute and I/O • CPU Performance Growing ~60% • • • HDD Capacity Growing ~15 -20% HDD Performance Growing <5% Tape Capacity Growing ~41% Tape Data Rate Growing 22. 5% Systems are Latency and I/O Bound e t u p m o C • Global IP Traffic Growing ~30% • Ethernet Speeds Growing 15 -25% • Network Traffic Growing Faster Than Network Speed Performance Gap ~50% Cagr. I/O • The Gap is Increasing Time. Source: Horison, Inc

Trendline - SSD Market 2 Q 2018 21. 85 EB Capacity and 47. 76 M Units Primary Flash SSD Suppliers Flash SSDs Shipped From 2011 to 2022 - 25% CAGR Exabyte Growth 21% for 2017 Units in millions 3 D Xpoint Arrives SSD Market - Data Center, Desktop and Consumer 3 D NAND is 73% of 2 Q Shipments Source: Trendfocus

Trendline - HDD Market Yearly HDD Shipments Since 1976 in Thousands Three Manufacturers Seagate, Toshiba, Western Digital 214. 60 EB in 2 Q 2018. 87. 7 Million units in 4 Q 18 HDD Market - Data Center, Desktop and Consumer 651 Million Drives Peak Year SSD Impact Begins Sources: Disk/trend, IDC, Trendfocus, compiled by Storage. Newsletter. com

Trendline - Tape Market Total LTO Tape Capacity Shipped in 2017 Compressed Capacity Shipments Exabyte Growth 12% for 2017 120000 PB Shipped 100000 108 EB One Tape Drive Manufacturer – IBM Two Media Manufacturers – Fujifilm, Sony ets k r a w M Ne 80000 nce plia m o C , e v , Archi p u k c a ets – B k r a M l ona 60000 40000 Traditi 20000 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Tape Market - Data Center Source: The LTO Program Technology Provider Companies (TPCs), Hewlett Packard Enterprise, IBM Corporation and Quantum

The Tape Renaissance Today’s Tape is Nothing Like the Past The Way It Was (Legacy Tape Era) • Numerous Formats & File systems • (Travan, 4 mm, 8 mm, DLT, DDS, DAT…) • Edge, Stretch, Tear, and Crimping • Cartridge Loading Problems • Reliability Lower Than HDDs • Media Life ~4 -10 Years • Linear Recording • Successful Robotics Introduced • HDDs Everywhere “Tape is Dead” What Caused the Tape Renaissance? • • LTO and LTFS (Standard Tape and File System - Interchange) Moved from MP to Ba. Fe (Oxidized) Media for 30+ Year Media Life Borrowed PRML ECC From HDDs for Highest Reliability Moved Servo Tracks from Tape Edges to Middle Bands Borrowed GMR Heads From HDDs Serpentine Recording Format Ruggedized Cartridges The Way It Is (Modern Tape Era) • • First Successful Tape Drive IBM 726 - 1952 2001 2005 Surpassed HDDs Reliability (BER) Data Rates >2 x Faster Than HDDs Media Life 30+ Years Exabyte+ (1 x 1018) Libraries RAIT, RAO and TAOS Arrive (Perf. ) Lowest Energy Consumption and TCO Intelligent Robotics, Smart cartridges No Known Recording Limits 2020

Tape Performance Accelerates New Access Time and Throughput Improvements Robotics Drive Load Drive Access ∑ Load + Access Time Throughput/Data Transfer Tape Robotic Library Mount Time Tape Drive Load Time File Access Time Locate the File Total Time to 1 st Byte of File (RAO, TAOS) Optimize Wraps and Bands Sequential Transfer For a File 4 - 10 secs 11 sec 10 - 100 secs 25 – 121 secs What About Data Transfer Time? Active Archive Provides HDD-like Cache Access Time to 1 st Byte of Faster Data Rates Today Tape Files (cache hit ratio ~60 -90%) RAO – Recommended Access Order (Enterprise Tape) Wrap 0 Order Tape Requests to Optimize Tape Movement Time to 1 st Byte. Reduces Drive and Media Wear. Faster Data Rates Tomorrow Projected to be 5 X Greater than HDD by 2025. TAOS - Time-based Access Order System (LTO) Order Tape Requests to Optimize Tape Movement Time to 1 st Byte. Reduces Drive and Media Wear. RAIT Striping Multiplies Tape Drive Data Rates. High Performance Transporter Faster Robotic Moves. Media IQ Sorting Move Commands to Optimize Move Sequence Based on Robot Location. Slot IQ Take Advantage of Empty Library Slots Nearest Tape Drives to Reduce Movement. Tape Data Rates Are 2 -3 x Faster Than HDD. Ultra-High-performance File Transfers. Increases Availability With Fault-tolerance. Source: Horison, Inc.

Storage Integrates Artificial Intelligence • AI Can Learn the I/O Pattern and Architect the Optimal Tiered Storage Solution. • Learn Data Lifecycles to Create a "Predictor Factor" About How Data Will Likely be Used In the Future. • Build Data Classification Engine To Learn When to Move Data From Higher-performance and More Expensive Storage, To Less-expensive Storage - Decide When To Archive and Delete. • Deploy Algorithms to Detect and Destroy Cyber Crime and Malware Threats. • AI Expected to Lower Storage Management Software Costs. . Source: Horison, Inc

Edge Computing Pushing The Frontier of Computing Away From Centralized Nodes to the Logical Extremes of a Network Cloud Data Centers Fog Nodes Edge Devices Edge Computing Thousands Millions Billions • The fog extends the cloud to act quickly on Io. T data before it reaches the cloud. • Any device with computing, storage, and network connectivity can be a fog node. Source: Horison, Inc.

Where Will all This Data Go? Will it Ever be Used?

Digital Data Transformation Fueling Future Growth Relentless Growth Ahead • Constantly Pushing Compute, Bandwidth and Storage Architecture Limits. • Data Protection Requirements Soar as Data Value Increases. • New Formats and Architectures Needed as Storage Density Increases. Traditional Data New Data Capacity. Optimized storage growing 63% annually* 4 D. . Motion Vector: 100’s GB/capsule Hi-Res: 3 D 50+ GB / object Video: 5 GB / movie Three Storage Access Modes Audio: 5 MB / song Images: 2 D 2 MB / picture Numbers: 5 KB / record Text: 500 KB / record Cleversafe Confidential Information Source: Horison, Inc.

Storage Outlook 2019 - 2020 HDDs • Areal Density and Performance Are Very Difficult to Increase. • Adding More Helium Filled Disks Now Reaching 15 Tb in 3. 5”. • Hamr Arrived In 2018 (Seagate). • Mamr (Microwave Assisted Magnetic Reversal WD) - 2019. • Mounting Pressure On Roadmap. Tape • Capacity Shipped Up 12% In 2017 (LTO). • New Focus on Performance – File Access Time and Faster Robotics. • Plays Key Roles for Cybercrime, Archival, DR And Big Data – Air Gap. • Unlimited Density/Capacity Potential. • Well-defined Roadmaps For 10+ Years. Glass disc, Atoms, DNA, Multi-layer optics, Quantum Computing… • All Remain in Laboratory …. SSD (Memories and Flash) • Continued Very Strong Demand. • Impact On HDD Sales (~50 x Faster Than HDD). • Massive Move From 2 D To 3 D NAND, Then 3 D Xpoint (~500 x Faster Than Flash). • AFA’s Dominate Growth, NVMe Boosts Perf. Io. T • Market Is Here - $772 B In 2018, Smart Everything… Cyber-crime • Protection Will Be Added to More Backup Software. Object Storage • Has Had Less Overall Impact Than Expected. • S 3 Will Continue To Attract Cloud Users. Artificial Intelligence (AI), Machine Learning (ML) • Storage Management - Predictive Analytics. • Getting Much Smarter, Recommend Actions. • Control Operations, Manage Tiered Storage. • Will Enable “Edge Storage” Solutions. Cloud Market Surge – But What’s After Cloud? • Expected to Reach $97. 4 Billion by 2022. • Is CAGR of 24. 8% Sustainable or at Peak? Impact TBD … • SDS, SEDs, Erasure Coding vs. RAID, Penta. RAID, GDPR, Blockchain, Blockweave, Shards….

So Where Are You On The Hype Cycle © 2019 Gartner, Inc.

Remember … Things Are Changing So Fast… Even the Future is Obsolete