MOSCOW SCHOOL OF ECONOMICS MOSCOW STATE UNIVERSITY FIRST

MOSCOW SCHOOL OF ECONOMICS MOSCOW STATE UNIVERSITY FIRST ONLINE INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE “ECONOMIC CHALLENGES OF COVID-19 PANDEMIC” CORONAVIRUS PANDEMIC-2020: WILL THE GREENING OF ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT PERSIST? Boris Porfiriev Institute for Economic Forecasting Russian Academy of Sciences

Plummeting daily coal consumption in China on the eve and soon after the Chinese New Year. And not only • 4 -year minimum of energy production at the coal EPP, 5 -year minimum of steel production • Production in the key industrial sectors shrinking by 15% to 40% • Air flights number plummeting by 70% 2

Decrease of air pollution in China • In a week after the Chinese New Year festivities the average level of air pollution dropped by 35% in contrast to the same dates in 2019: the respective indicator for NO 2 exceeded 30% • The CO 2 emissions went down by 100 million tons making up to almost 6% of the global emissions produced within the same timeframe in 2019 3

Decrease of the PM 2. 5 и PM 10 emissions in Hong Kong 4

Decrease of the NO 2 air pollution in the East of the USA 5

Decrease of the NO 2 air pollution in France and western part of Germany 6

Decrease of the NO 2 air pollution in Spain 7

Decrease of the NO 2 air pollution in Italy 8

Increasing of energy efficiency - the key driver of green economic growth in Russia 9

COVID-19 impact of the rates of economic growth in 2020 -2021 гг. Russia +2, 9% - 4, 5% G-20 stimulus package ~ $10 trln = 11% global GDP ИНП РАН 11

The green core of the EC programs of economic recovery from the 2020 pandemic crisis Early measures: § 28 November 2019 the European Parliament declared a climate emergency in Europe and globally. MEPs asked for all relevant EU legislative and budgetary proposals to be fully aligned with the objective of limiting global warming to under 1. 5 °C. § 11 December 2019 The Commission proposed the European Green Deal followed by a proposal for an EU Climate Law on 4 March 2020 to ensure a climate-neutral European Union by 2050 Current activities § 30 April 2020 = Petersberg Climate Dialogue – MEPs: European Green Deal should be at the center of recovery plan efforts = investments in green energy and infrastructure, education and wideband internet (“green economy”, UNEP) are more effective than “traditional” ones § 17 EU environmental ministers - a Green Recovery Alliance = multi-stakeholder forum of 12+ environment ministers, 79 MEPs, and 37 CEOs But(!) § declarations alone concerning the green recovery plan = earmarked of € 1 trln economic assistance to implement the plan § existing EC efforts to stick to the Paris agreement (INDC) ∆2, 7 С к 2100 г. 13