Mortality projections 2010 2030 2050 PLo S Medicine

GHE Projections Model • Estimated regression models using all available historical death registration data

Global projections for selected causes of death 2010 to 2050 Updated from Mathers and

Decomposition of growth in projected annual deaths from 2010 to 2050: low and middle

Will achieving the RF targets achieve the 25 x 25 NCD mortality target? Kontis,

Bayesian model ensemble projects rising life expectancy in 35 industrialized countries Kontis, Bennett, Mathers,

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Mortality projections 2010 -2030 -2050 • PLo. S Medicine paper: Mathers and Loncar (2006) http: //www. plosmedicine. org/ • Global burden of disease: 2004 update (2008) http: //www. who. int/healthinfo/global_burden_disease/ estimates_country_2004_2008/en/index. html • Global cause of death estimates 2000 -2011 (2013) http: //www. who. int/evidence/bod/ • Revised projections 2010 -2030 (2013) http: //www. who. int/evidence/bod/ • Global mortality and burden of disease (DALY) estimates 2000 -2012 - work in progress • Updated projections 2012 -2050: work in progress Health Statistics and Informatics

GHE Projections Model • Estimated regression models using all available historical death registration data 1950 -2011 (3, 534 country-years) • Separate equations for 7 age groups X sex X 10 cause groups • Mortality trends modelled as functions of: • National income per capita • Education (average years of schooling in adults) • smoking intensity (excess lung cancer above non-smoker level) • time – proxy for technological progress • BMI trends (diabetes only) • Separate models for diseases with unique epidemiology: HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis, lung cancer, diabetes mellitus, chronic respiratory diseases, road injury, homicide, conflict • Updated to 2010 base year from original projections (Mathers and Loncar PLo. S Med 2006) - www. who. int/evidence/bod Health Statistics and Informatics

Global projections for selected causes of death 2010 to 2050 Updated from Mathers and Loncar, PLo. S Medicine, 2006 Health Statistics and Informatics

Decomposition of growth in projected annual deaths from 2010 to 2050: low and middle income countries Health Statistics and Informatics Mathers and Loncar 2006

Will achieving the RF targets achieve the 25 x 25 NCD mortality target? Kontis, Mathers, Rehm, …Ezzati. Lancet 2014 Health Statistics and Informatics

Bayesian model ensemble projects rising life expectancy in 35 industrialized countries Kontis, Bennett, Mathers, …Ezzati, submitted for publication 2016 Health Statistics and Informatics