More Devolution An Alternative Road John Curtice and

More Devolution: An Alternative Road? John Curtice and Rachel Ormston Scot. Cen Social Research

The Structure • • Trends in support for independence Devo max/more/plus – the consensus option? Where do people want more devo? Who are the people who want more devo (and how do they differ from Nationalists and Status Quoers)?

SSA’s Long Standing Question • Which of these statements comes closest to your view? • Scotland should become independent, separate from the UK and the European Union • Scotland should become independent, separate from the UK but part of the European Union • Scotland should remain part of the UK, with its own elected parliament which has some taxation powers • Scotland should remain part of the UK, with its own elected parliament which has no taxation powers • Scotland should remain part of the UK without an elected parliament

Constitutional Preferences 1997 -2011

An overall measure • Which of the statements on this card comes closest to your view about who should make government decisions for Scotland? • The Scottish Parliament should make all the decisions for Scotland • The UK government should make decisions about defence and foreign affairs; the Scottish Parliament should decide everything else • The UK government should make decisions about taxes, benefits and defence and foreign affairs; the Scottish Parliament should decide the rest • The UK government should make all decisions for Scotland

A nation of minorities? 50 43 45 40 35 35 30 28 32 29 32 25 27 21 2010 24 2011 20 2012 15 10 10 5 5 0 Independence Devo Max Status Quo 6 No Devolution

Who should make most decisions for Scotland? 2012 Data Health Schools Welfare benefits Tax Levels Defence/Foreign Affairs Scottish Parliament 66 63 64 56 34 UK Government 24 11 19 36 59

Expectations Compared Pride Voice Economy Std. Living Inequality Tax Devo Max Independence More/Bett Less/Worse er er 51 3 55 3 42 15 42 22 34 25 34 34 31 17 32 24 17 23 19 25 6 49 8 57

Distinguishing Maximalists FROM NATIONALISTS • Who benefits from UK • Ind. Voice • National Identity • Spending Share • Ind. Eco • Women • White Collar FROM STATUS QUOERS • DMax. Economy (by far) • Ind. Voice • DMax. Living Standard • DMax. Tax • Dmax. Pride

Conclusions • Support for independence lower since 2007 and not increasing • Support for more devolution is undimmed, even though it’s not on the ballot • But only looks popular because the 50 -60% of unionists that most prefer it are joined by most nationalists for whom it looks like a good second choice • Popularity lies more in lack of perceived ‘downside’ rather then strong enthusiasm • Getting maximalists to switch/ensuring they stick will rely heavily on arguments about economic benefit/disbenefit of the Union (not just consequences of independence)