Monthly Demographic Now Cast Monthly estimates of migration

Monthly Demographic Now Cast. Monthly estimates of migration flows in Spain Joint UNECE/Eurostat Work Session on Migration Statistics, 14 -16 April 2010, Geneva

Population statistics in Spain before 2005 Demographic Census 2001 Vital events questionnaires Intercensal Population Estimates Long Term Population Projections Vital Statistics Demographics Indicators & Mortality Tables Population register “Padrón” Migration Statistics Joint UNECE/Eurostat Work Session on Migration Statistics, 14 -16 April 2010, Geneva

Lack of information about the current situation of vital events and migrations People Annual inmigration flow by citizenship Year Foreigners Spanish Joint UNECE/Eurostat Work Session on Migration Statistics, 14 -16 April 2010, Geneva

More demands on demographic information • More data: detailed population stocks and demographic flows (citizenship, country of birth, flows by origin and destination), causal analysis, etc. • More sub-populations : foreign population/population born abroad, with the same breakdowns as for the total population. • More frequency: the stronger the intensitiy of phenomena the more frequent the data dissemination on it should be. • More geographical breakdowns. • More coherence ( between geographical levels, between flows and stocks). Joint UNECE/Eurostat Work Session on Migration Statistics, 14 -16 April 2010, Geneva

Population statistics in Spain after 2005 Vital events questionnaires Vital Statistics Monthly Demographic Now Cast Padrón: Population register Demographics Indicators & Mortality Tables Population Now Cast Short and Long Term Population Projections Migration Statistics Joint UNECE/Eurostat Work Session on Migration Statistics, 14 -16 April 2010, Geneva

Monthly Demographic Now Cast : objectives üReducing the time to disseminate data provided for traditional sources in order to: üKnowing current demographic data to develope Population Now Cast and projections. üProviding figures to cover increasing demands on data about current demographic evolution. Joint UNECE/Eurostat Work Session on Migration Statistics, 14 -16 April 2010, Geneva

Monthly Demographic Now Cast : products 1) Monthly estimation of demographic events: births, deaths and migration flows. 2) Regional breakdowns (Nuts 3) and breakdowns for basic demographic variables (sex, age, citizenship). 3) Monthly update of main demographic indicators. Joint UNECE/Eurostat Work Session on Migration Statistics, 14 -16 April 2010, Geneva

Monthly Demographic Now Cast on migrations: information circuit Monthly account of variations and i mo ng an d del ling INE Exp Variations in the population register Municipalities Monthly Demographic Now Cast Auxiliary sources nd a ing g d an ellin p d Ex o m Joint UNECE/Eurostat Work Session on Migration Statistics, 14 -16 April 2010, Geneva

Monthly estimates of migration flow: methodology 1. Monthly external immigration flow 2. Monthly external emigration flow 1. Emigration flows to abroad declared in the Padrón. 2. Emigration flows to abroad of foreign citizen registered in the Padrón through actions carried out directly by the municipalities. 3. Emigration flows to abroad of non EU citizen without permanent resident permit registered in the Padrón through expiry procedure. 4. Emigration flows of EU citizen not included in previous groups (variations non registered in the Padrón). 5. Emigration flows of non EU citizen with permanent resident permit not included in previous groups (variations non registered in the Padrón). 3. Monthly internal migration flows Joint UNECE/Eurostat Work Session on Migration Statistics, 14 -16 April 2010, Geneva

1. - Monthly external immigration flow • The amount of events that happened in month m, year a is unknown – Example January 2010 • The amount of register variations received in INE in month m+x, year a that happened in month m and year a – Example: in February 2010, 22. 362 variations were received that happened in January 2010 • The amount of events that happened and that were received in the previous year – Example in January 2009 finally happened 33. 505 variations and in February of 2009 only 31. 233 of these had been received in INE • The expanding coefficient – Example 33505/31. 233=1, 0727 • The final estimation of variations in month m, year a (January 2010) Joint UNECE/Eurostat Work Session on Migration Statistics, – Example 22362*1, 0727= 23. 989 14 -16 April 2010, Geneva

1. - Monthly external immigration flow: accuracy and robustness • Flujo deexternal inmigración exterior mensual Monthly immigration flow Ja nu Fe ary br -08 ua M ry -0 ar ch 8 -0 Ap 8 ril M -08 ay -0 Ju 8 ne -0 Ju 8 ly Au -08 Se gu pt st em 08 b O er-0 ct 8 N obe ov em r-08 b D ic erem 0 be 8 Ja r-08 nu Fe ary br -0 ua 9 r M y-0 ar 9 ch -0 9 80000 70000 60000 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 0 Estimation april 2009 Registered Joint UNECE/Eurostat Work Session on Migration Statistics, 14 -16 April 2010, Geneva

2. -Monthly external emigration flow 2. 1. -Emigration flows declared in the Padrón. Same procedure presented previously Joint UNECE/Eurostat Work Session on Migration Statistics, 14 -16 April 2010, Geneva

2. -Monthly external emigration flow 2. 2. - Emigration flows to abroad of foreign citizen registered in the Padrón through actions carried out directly by the municipalities. – Exact date of the departure is unknown, • imputation is based on an uniform distribution of the emigration time between his last movement registered in the Padrón central database (which confirms the stay in the country) and the date of the ex oficio deregistration. – Then, same procedure previously presented Joint UNECE/Eurostat Work Session on Migration Statistics, 14 -16 April 2010, Geneva

2. 2. - Emigration flows to abroad of foreign citizen registered in the Padrón through actions carried out directly by the municipalities. Joint UNECE/Eurostat Work Session on Migration Statistics, 14 -16 April 2010, Geneva

2. -Monthly external emigration flow 2. 3. - Emigration flows of non EU citizen without permanent resident permit registered in the Padrón through expiry procedure. • Foreigners that don´t have a permanent residence permit have to re-register themselves in the Padrón every two years. • Eu citizens and non-EU citizens with permanent resident permits are not concerned by this regulation. Joint UNECE/Eurostat Work Session on Migration Statistics, 14 -16 April 2010, Geneva

2. -Monthly external emigration flow 2. 3. - Emigration flows of non EU citizen without permanent resident permit registered in the Padrón through expiry procedure. • Four steps – Estimation of the number of records that are going to expire in the following 24 months (these would be situations that affect variations that happened in the past) – Estimating which of the records that are going to expire in the following 24 months will be finally confirmed • The average percentage of confirmed exits over the total expired registrations in past months with almost definitive results of the expiry procedure is used as estimator. – Now we need to estimate the real emigration date of estimated exits. – Finally, a smoothing procedure is made over the resulting shape of the time distribution Joint UNECE/Eurostat Work Session on Migration Statistics, 14 -16 April 2010, Geneva

2. 3. - Emigration flows of non EU citizen without permanent resident permit registered in the Padrón through expiry procedure. Joint UNECE/Eurostat Work Session on Migration Statistics, 14 -16 April 2010, Geneva

2. -Monthly external emigration flow 2. 4. - Emigration flows of EU citizen not included in previous groups (non registered in the Padrón). • The estimated percentage of EU citizens migrating abroad time after their arrival is got from a survey • The migration calendar of UE citizens are estimated trough the smoothed distribution of emigration date respect to the time of residence in Spain. • The estimated percentage of UE citizens migrating abroad and the estimated calendar of emigration give the monthly emigration flow of UE citizens not registered by Municipalities. Joint UNECE/Eurostat Work Session on Migration Statistics, 14 -16 April 2010, Geneva

2. 4. - Emigration flows of EU citizen not included in previous groups (non registered in the Padrón). Joint UNECE/Eurostat Work Session on Migration Statistics, 14 -16 April 2010, Geneva

2. - Monthly external emigration flow 2. 5. - Emigration flows of non EU citizen with permanent resident permit not included in previous groups (non registered in the Padrón). Same procedure than the previous one Joint UNECE/Eurostat Work Session on Migration Statistics, 14 -16 April 2010, Geneva

3. - Monthly internal migration flows Same procedure used in inmigration flows (expanding coefficient) Joint UNECE/Eurostat Work Session on Migration Statistics, 14 -16 April 2010, Geneva

Now, we have improved the timeliness Joint UNECE/Eurostat Work Session on Migration Statistics, 14 -16 April 2010, Geneva

Now, we have improved the timeliness Joint UNECE/Eurostat Work Session on Migration Statistics, 14 -16 April 2010, Geneva

Now, we have improved the timeliness Joint UNECE/Eurostat Work Session on Migration Statistics, 14 -16 April 2010, Geneva

Now, we have improved the timeliness Joint UNECE/Eurostat Work Session on Migration Statistics, 14 -16 April 2010, Geneva

Some final conclusions • Monthly Demographic Now Cast comes to provide advanced and accurate estimates of monthly demographic events, few time after the reference date (only one month, in case of migrations). • Work to be done: – Do we select properly the type of variations in Padrón that represent migrations? – Are any of this type of variations under or over represented in our register? And if yes, in a different way in wich we do things? Joint UNECE/Eurostat Work Session on Migration Statistics, 14 -16 April 2010, Geneva

Thank you very much for your attention! Miguel Ángel Martínez Vidal Population Statistics Directorate Instituto Nacional de Estadística miguelangel. martinez. vidal@ine. es Joint UNECE/Eurostat Work Session on Migration Statistics, 14 -16 April 2010, Geneva