MONTHLY CLIMATE REVIEW APRIL 2014 Probabilistic ENSO Forecast

MONTHLY CLIMATE REVIEW APRIL 2014 Probabilistic ENSO Forecast Pensacola rains Cyclone Hellen (Mozambique Channel)

CONTENTS *Tropics -ENSO [Neutral] -MJO *Extra-tropics *Verification of FMA & April 2014 Outlooks *Drought *Selected Weather Events *Outlooks (May & MJJ 2014 & MDO)

I. The Tropics

LATEST MONTHLY INDICES

850 -h. Pa Wind MJO update 5/5: Westerly DNs diminished across southeast I. O. & southern Maritime Continent; increased over e/c-Pacific

200 -h. Pa Wind MJO update 5/5: Westerly DNs expand east to M. C. * *M. C. = Maritime Continent Background state has contributed to Easterlies expanding to IDL

SST & Anomalies Subsurface 200 m

SSTA Predictions for Nino 3. 4 Region NMME & inputs CFSv 2 (10 th) CPC/IRI CPC Consolidation

II. The Extra-Tropics

Northern Hemisphere SLP 500 -h. Pa Severnaya Zemlya

Southern Hemisphere SLP 500 -h. Pa

Global Temperatures

Global Precipitation ITCZ

Precipitation

Hawaiian Rainfall (April 2014) Mean precipitation derived from CPC Unified Daily gauge analysis Used raw analysis at 0. 125 deg lat/lon resolution Orographic effects of Hawaiian Rainfall best represented in Oahu Special thanks to Pingping & Mingyue for these plots!

Hawaiian Rainfall (April 2014) Total (inches) Departure (inches) Lihue 0. 7 -1. 6 Kahului Honolulu 0. 3 ? Honolulu 2. 5 -0. 3 Hilo Int’l Airport in west part of city has normal of 0. 63”; some sources say “Honolulu” (non-airport site? ) gets ~1. 5” 13. 4 Prelim data from NWSFO Honolulu, HI (Monthly Weather Summary) Kahului +1. 0 Hilo +1. 8

III. Verification of FMA & April 2014 Outlooks

* * Rick Thoman, Fairbanks WFO

Marine Layer / Backdoor Fronts?

IV. Drought

DROUGHT MONITOR April 1 April 29 Easing Worsening

Monthly-Average Stream flow for the month of year APRIL 2014 MARCH 2014 CPC Soil Moisture Anomaly

V. Selected Weather Events

Severe Weather (April 2014) Tornadoes Hail Straight-line Winds

Severe Weather (April 27 -29) Tornadoes: 36 / 108 / 13 Severe Hail (1”+): 107 / 59 / 34………. . Large Hail (2”+): 6 / 2 Severe Winds (50 kts +): 105 / 173 / 60…… High Winds (65 kts +): 1 / 0 / 2

(minimal) Typhoon Tapah* http: //www. earthweek. com/20 14/ew 140502 e. gif *Tapah: may refer to a Malaysian species of huge freshwater catfish, called Wallago attu

Typhoon Tapah NASA-NOAA Suomi NPP; Tapah ~150 NM northeast of Saipan High surf & occasionally gusty winds to Guam & the Northern Marianas http: //www. nasa. gov/sites/default/files/20140429. 030347. npp_. viirs_. visible. tc 1406 wtapah. res 1 km_covg 99 p 14_0. jpg

Typhoon Tapah Cloud tops ~ -52 C NASA Aqua 4/29 03: 47 UTC http: //cdn. phys. org/newman/gfx/news/2014/tapahthrough. jpg Credit: NASA JPL, Ed Olsen

April 29 -30 Slow-moving Storm 29 th 30 th

Very Heavy Rainfall & Sinkholes Pensacola n/c-Baltimore Interesting Stats (WFO): Charles Village neighborhood 4/30/14 Pensacola: 29. 53” of rain in April…. 25. 21” above normal… Wettest April & wettest month ever recorded… Mobile: 18. 09” of rain in April… 13. 30” above normal… Wettest April ever & 8 th wettest month… Weekly Weather & Crop Bulletin: Pensacola: 20. 47” (April 29 -30)” www. dallasnews. com/news/local-news/20140430 -delugepounds-florida-alabama-storm-moves-up-east-coast. ece BALTIMORE CITY. . . (NWSFO) HAMILTON 6. 50 COCORAHS NE BALTIMORE 6. 26 PUBLIC 1 N MOUNT WASHINGTON 5. 96 COCORAHS MD SCIENCE CENTER 5. 77 KDMH ASOS www. dallasnews. com/news/local-news/20140430 severe_weather_maryland. jpg. ece/BINARY/w 620 x 413/Seve re_Weather_Maryland. jpg

VI. Outlooks for May & MJJ 2014 & MDO

MAY TEMP MAY PRCP MJJ TEMP MJJ PRCP

I will bench-press CPC for breakfast !! !