Monitoring and Modelling Deforestation in Amazonia Gilberto Cmara

Monitoring and Modelling Deforestation in Amazonia Gilberto Câmara, INPE, Brazil Schermerhorn Lecture Opening Academic Year, ITC, 2008

Can we avoid that this…. Source: Carlos Nobre (INPE)

Fire. . . …. becomes this? Source: Carlos Nobre (INPE)

How much land change is happening? Global Change Where are land changes taking place? Who is causing the change? What are the impacts of public policies? What will happen in the future?

photo source: Edson Sano (EMBRAPA) Agricultural Trade in Brazil

photo source: Edson Sano (EMBRAPA) Cattle in Amazonia and Brazil Amazonia Brasil 1992 2007 30 million 75 million 154 million 207 million

Processes of deforestation Slash and burn Progressive degradation

Slash and burn Slash: start of dry season Burn: end of dry season

Progressive degradation Barlow and Peters (2008) Selective logging Wood extraction and burning Further burning and pasture Clear cut

Progressive degradation T 1 – Selective logging T 2 – Loss of smaller trees T 3 – Loss >50% of forest T 4 – Loss >90% of forest

Severely degraded forest Pasture

Satellites for Forestry 100 Technology 2000 PAN CBERS-3 50 Technology 2008 CCD CBERS-2 Revisit (days) Identification Forest types Technology 2015 CBERS-5 10 LANDSAT TM Mapping Deforestation 5 Amaz-1 AWFI CB 3 CBERS-6 WFI CB 2 A 1 -CB 3 Detection Deforestation 1 1 5 10 50 Resolution (m) MODIS 1000

Deforestation as an event Forest Clear cut – end of deforestation (objective and definitive)

Clear-cut deforestation monitoring ~230 scenes Landsat/year PRODES: Yearly detailed estimates of clear-cut areas (220 LANDSAT, 500 CBERS, 50 DMC images)

Clear-cut deforestation monitoring ~230 scenes Landsat/year Taxa anual de desmatamento PRODES: Yearly detailed estimates of clear-cut areas

Is deforestation an event or a process? Clear cut Forest ? What happens between the pristine forest and the clear cut?

Monitoring Deforestation in Amazonia DETER: 15 -day alerts of newly deforested large areas

Exploração exploitation intensiva Intensive time How far is detection time from real-world time? Perda >50% do dossel Loss >50% DETER – alert 1 Perda>90% do dossel Loss DETER – alert 2 Corte Clear raso cut Floresta DETER – final alert

Altamira (Pará) – LANDSAT Image – 22 August 2003

Altamira (Pará) – MODIS Image – 07 May 2004

Imagem Modis de 2004 -05 -21, com excesso de nuvens Altamira (Pará) – MODIS Image – 21 May 2004

Altamira (Pará) – MODIS Image – 07 June 2004

Altamira (Pará) – MODIS Image – 22 June 2004 6. 000 hectares deforested in one month!

Altamira (Pará) – LANDSAT Image – 07 July 2004

How hard is to use MODIS images to detect deforestation? Landsat/TM Alerta MODIS DETER nov-2007 August 2007 November 2007

Checking DETER´s data (February 2008) Clear-cut for pasture

Monthly reports: May 2008 Clear-cut Intensive impact Moderate impact Low impact Error

Terra. Amazon – open source software for large-scale land change monitoring 116 -112 116 -113 Spatial database (Postgre. SQL with vectors and images) 166 -112 2004 -2008: 5 million polygons, 500 GB images

What’s coming next?

Scenario A Scenario B Scenario C Scenario D 2) Estradaskm pavimentadas em 2010 Decreasing demand(15. 000 Áreas protegidas em 1997 Estradas não pavimentadas Novas áreas protegidas (2004) Rios principais New. Ações protected areas, new roads Limites estaduais de comando e controle (locais de cumprimento da lei) Command control actions Demanda: 15. 000 25. 000 km 2

Projected scenario for Amazonia 2020 Scenario A Scenario B Scenario C % change 1997 a 2020: Scenario D Estradas pavimentadas (2010) Estradas não pavimentadas Rios principais Limites estaduais 0. 0 – 0. 1 – 0. 2 – 0. 3 – 0. 4 – 0. 5 – 0. 6 – 0. 7 – 0. 8 – 0. 9 – 1. 0

INPE´s results have worldwide impact

Society is watching!

International credibility helps… “Today, Brazil’s monitoring system is the envy of the world. INPE has its own remote sensing satellite, a joint effort with China, that allows it to publish yearly totals of deforested land that scientists regard as reliable. ” Terra. Amazon

. . . especially when real money is involved! Until 2015, Norway will give up to US$ 1 billion to reduce deforestation in the Amazon. Norway’s contribution will depend on how successful Brazil will be in reducing deforestation. Brazil has the largest rain forest and one of the world’s most advanced systems for surveillance of deforestation.