Module Capstone The climatic and societal consequences of

Module Capstone: The climatic and societal consequences of a modern catastrophic volcanic eruption.

Module Capstone: The Assignment 1. Investigate Mt. Toba eruption. Utilizing the same research techniques you used in Part A, write a brief summary of the Toba event (150 word minimum).

Mt Toba TOBA Krakatoa Tambora Krakatoa, Tambora, and Toba are all part of the arc volcano system created by the subduction of the Indo-Australian Plate beneath the South East Asian Plate.

Volumes of magma (plotted on log scale) released by historic eruptions compared with very large eruptions; inset: same data plotted on linear scale. See Figures and data at http: //rsta. royalsocietypublishing. org/content/364/1845/2073 S Self Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A 2006; 364: 2073 -2097 © 2006 by The Royal Society

Toba Caldera http: //earthobservatory. nasa. gov/IOTD/view. php? id=7380

Toba Caldera Watch the Open University video Volcanoes: Historic eruptions and their climatic effects (3: 23). At http: //podcast. open. ac. uk/oulearn/science/podcast‐s 269‐earth‐and‐life#!3 d 3 e 2958 a 5

Further Reading about Toba http: //rsta. royalsocietypublishing. org/content/364/1845/2073 “The effects and consequences of very large explosive volcanic eruptions” http: //digitalcommons. library. umaine. edu/cgi/viewcontent. cgi? article=1192&context =ers_facpub Zielinski, G. A. ; Mayewski, P. A. ; Meeker, L. D. ; Whitlow, S. ; Twickler, M. S. ; Taylor, K. (1996). “potential atmospheric impact of the toba mega‐eruption ~71, 000 years ago” Geophysical Research Letters 23 (8): 837– 840. http: //www. livescience. com/29130‐toba‐supervolcano‐effects. html https: //www. youtube. com/watch? v=j 5 jc. BWz. B 3 n. M 45 minutes

Module Capstone: The Assignment 2. Develop a conceptual model to explore the climatic and societal effects of a Toba-like eruption occurring in the year 2020. Use the information from your Toba summary, relevant data relating volcanic eruption events to global and regional temperature changes, and your understanding of energy exchanges within the climate system to develop a conceptual model designed to explore the possible consequences of a Tobasized eruption occurring in the year 2020.

How confident are you about building a conceptual model to explore the climatic and societal effects of a modern Toba-like eruption? Not at all confident 1 2 Somewhat confident Very confident 3 4 5

Conceptual (or mental) Models • All models have some sort of input, some processing, and an output. A Model

A Visual Model • What are the: input, processing, and output for the graph of data below?

A Visual Model • What are the: input, processing, and output for the graph of data below? Input: raw data Processing: organize time and temperature and obtain annual mean Output: final graph

Conceptual (or mental) Models All models have some sort of input, some processing, and an output. What are the input, processing, and output for a conceptual model of a catastrophic eruption? A Model

Conceptual (or mental) Models All models have some sort of input, some processing, and an output. What are the input, processing, and output for a conceptual model of a catastrophic eruption? Input: The eruption strength, time of year, and location Processing: logical ideas connecting eruption to the physical climate and society Output: concept sketches, concept maps, written paragraphs, and systems diagrams

Conceptual (or mental) Models • The input : is a large Toba scale volcanic eruption in the year 2020, assumed location and time of year for the eruption are also important. • The processing : your vision/thoughts on how this catastrophic eruption will affect Earth’s climate and society. The connections between the eruption and consequences must have a logical structure, and when possible be based on past events or plausible connections in our modern era. • Output (presenting your ideas): It is easiest to concisely communicate the ideas contained within your conceptual model with short paragraphs, concept maps, concept sketches, and systems diagrams. For the highest score on this activity your report should include all of these.

Concept Maps and/or concept sketches, system diagrams, and you written discussion all come together to communicate your conceptual Model.

Concept maps Above example is an incomplete concept map of climate change; it was drawn using Cmap. Tools. See: http: //cmap. ihmc. us/

Concept sketches For more information see: http: //serc. carleton. edu/NAGTWorkshops/careerdev/Academic. Career. Teach 2013/march. html

Systems diagrams

A system diagram: identifying feedback structure

How confident are you about building a conceptual model to explore the climatic and societal effects of a modern Toba-like eruption? Not at all confident 1 2 Somewhat confident Very confident 3 4 5 “What aspect are you most/least comfortable with? ”

Your conceptual model should include a discussion of: 1. The effects of the eruption on Earth’s atmosphere. 2. The effects of the eruption on Earth’s energy balance. 3. How changes in Earth’s energy balance will affect atmospheric circulation. 4. Differences in effects on a regional and global scale. 5. Possible impacts on local, regional, and/or global economy, changes in public policy, effects on human health and mortality. 6. The magnitude and the duration of all effects associated with this eruption scenario.

The Assignment Rubric