Module 4 1 Interest Rates and Bond Valuation

8. 1 Bonds and Bond Valuation o. A bond is a legally binding agreement between a borrower and a lender that specifies the: Par (face) value n Coupon rate n Coupon payment n Maturity Date n o The yield to maturity is the required market interest rate on the bond. n This is determined by the market. 8 -1

Bond Valuation o Primary n Principle: Value of financial securities = PV of expected future cash flows o Bond value is, therefore, determined by the present value of the coupon payments and par value. o Interest rates are inversely related to present (i. e. , bond) values. 8 -2

The Bond-Pricing Equation You’ve worked with this over the past 3 modules! Bond Value = (PV annuity) + (PV of a single payment) 8 -3

Bond Example o Consider a U. S. government bond with as 6 3/8% coupon that expires in December 2016. n n The Par Value of the bond is $1, 000. Coupon payments are made semiannually (June 30 and December 31 for this particular bond). Since the coupon rate is 6 3/8%, the payment is $31. 875. On January 1, 2012 the size and timing of cash flows are: 8 -4

Bond Example o On January 1, 2012, the required yield is 5%. o The current value is: o Or, using our spreadsheets: 8 -5

Using our spreadsheets: o You can build this anyway you’d like, but this is one that I built that I’ve come to rely on: 8 -6

Bond Example o Now assume that the required yield is 11%. o How does this change the bond’s price? 8 -7

YTM and Bond Value When the YTM < coupon, the bond trades at a premium. Bond Value 1300 1200 When the YTM = coupon, the bond trades at par. 1100 1000 800 0 0. 01 0. 02 0. 03 0. 04 0. 05 0. 06 0. 07 6 3/8 0. 09 0. 1 Discount Rate When the YTM > coupon, the bond trades at a discount. 8 -8

Illustrate: set YTM=Coupon Rate When these rates are equal Bond Value will equal the Face or Par Value 8 -9

Bond Concepts q q Bond prices and market interest rates move in opposite directions. When coupon rate = YTM, price = par value When coupon rate > YTM, price > par value (premium bond) When coupon rate < YTM, price < par value (discount bond) 8 -10

Interest Rate Risk o Price Risk n n n o Change in price due to changes in interest rates Long-term bonds have more price risk than short-term bonds Low coupon rate bonds have more price risk than high coupon rate bonds. Reinvestment Rate Risk n n n Uncertainty concerning rates at which cash flows can be reinvested Short-term bonds have more reinvestment rate risk than long-term bonds. High coupon rate bonds have more reinvestment rate risk than low coupon rate bonds. 8 -11

Bond Value Maturity and Bond Price Volatility Consider two otherwise identical bonds. The long-maturity bond will have much more volatility with respect to changes in the discount rate. Par Short Maturity Bond C Discount Rate Long Maturity Bond 8 -12

Computing Yield to Maturity o Yield to maturity is the rate implied by the current bond price. o Finding the YTM requires trial and error if you do not have a financial calculator, and it is similar to the process for finding r with an annuity. n You can always use your financial calculator or “goal seek” on our spreadsheet to find YTM. 8 -13

YTM with Annual Coupons o Consider a bond with a 10% annual coupon rate, 15 years to maturity, and a par value of $1, 000. The current price is $928. 09. n n Will the yield be more or less than 10%? Must be > 10%! Spreadsheet solution using Goal Seek. Set Bond value=928. 09 by changing the YTM cell. 8 -14

YTM with Semiannual Coupons o Suppose a bond with a 10% coupon rate and semiannual coupons has a face value of $1, 000, 20 years to maturity, and is selling for $1, 197. 93. n Is the YTM more or less than 10%? Must be less than 10%. 8 -15

Current Yield vs. Yield to Maturity o o o Current Yield = annual coupon / bond value Yield to maturity = current yield + capital gains yield Example: 10% coupon bond, with semi-annual coupons, face value of 1, 000, 20 years to maturity, $1, 197. 93 price n n Current yield = 100 / 1197. 93 =. 0835 = 8. 35% Price in one year, assuming no change in YTM = 1, 193. 68 Capital gain yield = (1193. 68 – 1197. 93) / 1197. 93 = -. 0035 = -. 35% YTM = 8. 35 -. 35 = 8%, which is the same YTM computed earlier 8 -16

Current Yield and YTM o Using our spreadsheet: 8 -17

Bond Pricing Theorems o Bonds of similar risk (and maturity) will be priced to yield about the same return, regardless of the coupon rate. n If you know the price of one bond, you can estimate its YTM and use that to find the price of the second bond. o This is a useful concept that can be transferred to valuing assets other than bonds, and is used by underwriters to price new bonds prior to trading. 8 -18

Zero Coupon Bonds o o o Make no periodic interest payments (coupon rate = 0%) The entire yield to maturity comes from the difference between the purchase price and the par value Cannot sell for more than par value Sometimes called zeroes, deep discount bonds, or original issue discount bonds (OIDs) Treasury Bills and principal-only Treasury strips are good examples of zeroes 8 -19

Pure Discount Bonds Information needed for valuing pure discount bonds: n Time to maturity (T) = Maturity date - today’s date n Face value (F) n Discount rate (r) Present value of a pure discount bond at time 0: 8 -20

Pure Discount Bonds: Example Find the value of a 15 -year zero-coupon bond with a $1, 000 par value and a YTM of 12%. 8 -21

Same example with our spreadsheet o Just set coupon rate=0 8 -22

Bond Pricing with a Spreadsheet o Note: This is from the textbook provider. Again, I rarely use these functions as I prefer to build it myself. You can just skip this slide if you’d wish! o There are specific formulas for finding bond prices and yields on a spreadsheet. n n PRICE(Settlement, Maturity, Rate, Yld, Redemption, Frequency, Basis) YIELD(Settlement, Maturity, Rate, Pr, Redemption, Frequency, Basis) Settlement and maturity need to be actual dates The redemption and Pr need to given as % of par value o Click on the Excel icon for an example. 8 -23

8. 2 Government Bonds o Treasury Securities n n o Federal government debt T-bills – pure discount bonds with original maturity less than one year T-notes – coupon debt with original maturity between one and ten years T-bonds – coupon debt with original maturity greater than ten years Municipal Securities n n n Debt of state and local governments Varying degrees of default risk, rated similar to corporate debt Interest received is tax-exempt at the federal level 8 -24

After-tax Yields o. A taxable bond has a yield of 8%, and a municipal bond has a yield of 6%. n If you are in a 40% tax bracket, which bond do you prefer? o 8%(1 -. 4) = 4. 8% o The after-tax return on the corporate bond is 4. 8%, compared to a 6% return on the municipal n At what tax rate would you be indifferent between the two bonds? o 8%(1 – T) = 6% o T = 25% 8 -25

Corporate Bonds o Greater default risk relative to government bonds o The promised yield (YTM) may be higher than the expected return due to this added default risk 8 -26

Bond Ratings – Investment Quality o High Grade Moody’s Aaa and S&P AAA – capacity to pay is extremely strong n Moody’s Aa and S&P AA – capacity to pay is very strong n o Medium Grade Moody’s A and S&P A – capacity to pay is strong, but more susceptible to changes in circumstances n Moody’s Baa and S&P BBB – capacity to pay is adequate, adverse conditions will have more impact on the firm’s ability to pay n 8 -27

Bond Ratings - Speculative o Low Grade (sometimes called “Junk Bonds”) Moody’s Ba and B n S&P BB and B n Considered speculative with respect to capacity to pay. n o Very Low Grade (definite “Junk Bonds”) Moody’s C n S&P C & D n Highly uncertain repayment and, in many cases, already in default, with principal and interest in arrears. n 8 -28