Module 2 Session 3 Work MODULE 2 SESSION

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Module 2 Session 3 Work MODULE 2 – SESSION 3 DEVELOPING THE SCENARIOS www.

Module 2 Session 3 Work MODULE 2 – SESSION 3 DEVELOPING THE SCENARIOS www. ifrc. org Saving lives, changing minds.

Module 2 Session 3 Work LEARNING OBJECTIVES § Participants are able to develop scenarios.

Module 2 Session 3 Work LEARNING OBJECTIVES § Participants are able to develop scenarios. www. ifrc. org Saving lives, changing minds.

Module 2 Session 3 Work BEST, MOST LIKELY, AND WORST CASE SCENARIOS SCENARIO DROUGHT

Module 2 Session 3 Work BEST, MOST LIKELY, AND WORST CASE SCENARIOS SCENARIO DROUGHT FLOOD EARTHQUAKE BEST No drought Seasonal floods 4. 5 Richter scale & minor damage MOST LIKELY Moderate drought affecting one part of country Major flood affecting 100, 000 people 6. 5 Richter scale & major damage in rural areas WORST Severe drought affecting large areas of country Extreme flooding affecting 1, 000 8. 0 Richter scale; epicenter in major city & catastrophic damage www. ifrc. org Saving lives, changing minds.

Module 2 Session 3 Work QUESTIONS TO ANSWER § § § What is going

Module 2 Session 3 Work QUESTIONS TO ANSWER § § § What is going to happen? What are you going to do? How many people are affected? What is the damage and the worst affected scenario? What are the assumptions? What are the triggering factors? www. ifrc. org Saving lives, changing minds.

Module 2 Session 3 Work PLANNING ASSUMPTIONS EXAMPLES Humanitarian assistance may be needed to

Module 2 Session 3 Work PLANNING ASSUMPTIONS EXAMPLES Humanitarian assistance may be needed to assist the Government in protection and providing relief assistance to 50, 000 – 70, 000 internally displaced people. The potential floods could disrupt livelihoods of 20, 000 communities. Should there be spoiling of wells during the cyclone, the affected communities would not have access to clean and safe water. Due to insecurity and limited transportation, communities may have not access to markets to buy their supplies in a timely manner. www. ifrc. org Saving lives, changing minds.

Module 2 Session 3 Work STEPS TO DEVELOPING SCENARIOS 1. 2. 3. 4. 5.

Module 2 Session 3 Work STEPS TO DEVELOPING SCENARIOS 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. Describe the current situation & baseline info Define scenarios Select scenarios for further development State assumptions for scenarios Identify triggering events for each scenario www. ifrc. org Saving lives, changing minds.

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FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON XXXXXXXXX, PLEASE CONTACT: IFRC XXXXXXX DEPARTMENT NAME SURNAME, TITLE TEL. : +41 022 730 XXXX EMAIL: name. surname@ifrc. org THIS PRESENTATION IS PUBLISHED BY INTERNATIONAL FEDERATION OF RED CROSS AND RED CRESCENT SOCIETIES P. O. BOX 372 CH-1211 GENEVA 19 SWITZERLAND TEL. : +41 22 730 42 22 FAX. : +41 22 733 03 95