Module 2 Session 2 Development MODULE 2 SESSION

Module 2 Session 2 Development LEARNING OBJECTIVES § Participants are familiar with different approaches

Module 2 Session 2 Development WHAT IS A SCENARIO? § Description of a situation

Module 2 Session 2 Development WHAT IS SCENARIO DEVELOPMENT? § Process of developing a

Module 2 Session 2 Development METHODS OF SCENARIO BUILDING 1. Best, most likely &

Module 2 Session 2 Development SOURCES OF INFORMATION § EXPERT OPINION § HISTORICAL ANALOGY

Module 2 Session 2 Development CHALLENGES OF SCENARIO BUILDING § Scenario trap § Lack

Module 2 Session 2 Development EXERCISE: 5 minutes § How can we address the

Module 2 Session 2 Development ADDRESSING CHALLENGES SCENARIO TRAP LACK OF FLEXIBILITY NO FOCUS

FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON XXXXXXXXX, PLEASE CONTACT: IFRC XXXXXXX DEPARTMENT NAME SURNAME, TITLE TEL.

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Module 2 Session 2 Development MODULE 2 – SESSION 2 SCENARIO DEVELOPMENT www. ifrc. org Saving lives, changing minds.

Module 2 Session 2 Development LEARNING OBJECTIVES § Participants are familiar with different approaches to scenario development. § Participants are able to list the steps to scenario development. www. ifrc. org Saving lives, changing minds.

Module 2 Session 2 Development WHAT IS A SCENARIO? § Description of a situation that could occur § Informed assumptions about a situation that requires humanitarian action INSERT YOUR OWN INDICATIVE PHOTO OF POTENTIAL HAZARD EFFECTS HERE: VOLCANIS ASH, EARTHQUAKE RUBBLE, BURNED FOREST, FLOODED HOMES, ETC. www. ifrc. org Saving lives, changing minds. INSERT YOUR OWN INDICATIVE PHOTO OF POTENTIAL HAZARD EFFECTS HERE: VOLCANIS ASH, EARTHQUAKE RUBBLE, BURNED FOREST, FLOODED HOMES, ETC.

Module 2 Session 2 Development WHAT IS SCENARIO DEVELOPMENT? § Process of developing a scenario in anticipation of disaster § Based on experience & early warning indicators § Important step in contingency planning process § Various approaches to scenario development www. ifrc. org Saving lives, changing minds.

Module 2 Session 2 Development METHODS OF SCENARIO BUILDING 1. Best, most likely & worst case scenario 2. Augmentation approach 3. Timeline approach 4. Operationally representative approach www. ifrc. org Saving lives, changing minds.

Module 2 Session 2 Development SOURCES OF INFORMATION § EXPERT OPINION § HISTORICAL ANALOGY § FIELD ASSESSMENT § PROJECTION AGAINST BASELINE § RESPONSE ANALYSIS www. ifrc. org Saving lives, changing minds.

Module 2 Session 2 Development CHALLENGES OF SCENARIO BUILDING § Scenario trap § Lack of flexibility or adaptability § Limited focus on impact of disaster on lives & livelihood www. ifrc. org Saving lives, changing minds.

Module 2 Session 2 Development EXERCISE: 5 minutes § How can we address the following challenges: § Scenario § Lack trap of flexibility or adaptability of focus on impact of disaster on lives & livelihood www. ifrc. org Saving lives, changing minds.

Module 2 Session 2 Development ADDRESSING CHALLENGES SCENARIO TRAP LACK OF FLEXIBILITY NO FOCUS ON IMPACT Acknowledge we make assumptions Build scenarios with specific objectives Focus scenarios on impact on people No need to be accurate Use operational consequence to develop the scenarios Develop scenarios & discuss response strategy & implementation Agree to compromise Respect time limit set Revisit the scenarios after doing plan Develop scenarios that support responses of many situations Avoid details; use range - APPOINT SOMEONE TO REMIND US MOVE ON www. ifrc. org Saving lives, changing minds.

FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON XXXXXXXXX, PLEASE CONTACT: IFRC XXXXXXX DEPARTMENT NAME SURNAME, TITLE TEL. : +41 022 730 XXXX EMAIL: name. surname@ifrc. org THIS PRESENTATION IS PUBLISHED BY INTERNATIONAL FEDERATION OF RED CROSS AND RED CRESCENT SOCIETIES P. O. BOX 372 CH-1211 GENEVA 19 SWITZERLAND TEL. : +41 22 730 42 22 FAX. : +41 22 733 03 95