Modelling of cascading effects and efficient response to
- Slides: 16
Modelling of cascading effects and efficient response to disaster spreading in complex networks K. Peters, L. Buzna, and D. Helbing, 2008 Alexandre Mérillat Nhat Anh Truong | 10/3/2020 | 1
Blackout of August 14, 2003 ((Vorname Nachname)) | 10/3/2020 | 2
Introduction § We are surrounded by networks: infrastructure, organisations, communication systems § To model complex systems: § System components = nodes § Relation between components = links (physical but also logical) § Understanding dynamics of failure spreading in complex networks: § Topology of underlying network § Dynamic mechanisms of interaction Alexandre Mérillat Nath Anh Truong | 10/3/2020 | 3
Modelling the dynamics of disaster spreading
Network and node model (1) § Use a generic model: equation for behaviour of one system component that depends on internal & external loads § Sigmoid function of expected damage (specific fragility curve) § θi : threshold (node fails if sum of all disturbances approach θi) Alexandre Mérillat Nath Anh Truong | 10/3/2020 | 5
Network and node model (2) § We add interactions between components and the recovery ability of the component which tend to restore xi to zero. § Overal dynamic of node in an interaction network (with permanent recovery capabilities: Alexandre Mérillat Nath Anh Truong | 10/3/2020 | 6
Dynamics of disaster spreading (1) § One initial extreme event § Three basic types of system behaviours are found: § 1. self-healing scenario: damage grow and spread as long as disturbance persist, then go back § 2. spreading scenario: damage grow even after disturbance ceased § 3. intermediate regime Which regime depends on recovery rate Alexandre Mérillat Nath Anh Truong | 10/3/2020 | 7
Dynamics of disaster spreading (2) 1/τ decreases Repair effect reduced Alexandre Mérillat Nath Anh Truong | 10/3/2020 | 8
Dynamics of disaster spreading (3) Fast propag. Nonlinear dep. Slower propag heterogeneous Alexandre Mérillat Nath Anh Truong | 10/3/2020 | 9
Assessment of disaster management strategies
The strategies 1. Uniform distribution of available forces 2. Out-degree based assignment of forces 3. Uniform assignment to damaged nodes 4. Uniform assignment to destroyed nodes 5. Targeted assignment to highly connected nodes 6. Out-degree-based targeted assignment to destroyed nodes Alexandre Mérillat Nath Anh Truong | 10/3/2020 | 11
Modelling of resources allocation and damage mitigation § Alexandre Mérillat Nath Anh Truong | 10/3/2020 | 12
Efficiency of strategies (1) Number of destroyed nodes for different strategies : solid line – strategy S 3; long-dashed line – S 4; short-dashed line – S 5; dotted line – S 6 Alexandre Mérillat Nath Anh Truong | 10/3/2020 | 13
Efficiency of strategies (2) Damages for two differences, an efficient (S 6) and an inefficient one (S 1), as a function of ressources R available and time delay for response t. D Alexandre Mérillat Nath Anh Truong | 10/3/2020 | 14
Conclusion § For real cases where resources are limited and reaction is within a time delay, choosing the strategy wisely can greatly improve the efficiency of the response. However, the good use of the strategy might be limited by a lack of information. § This model can help to optimise the robustness of existing networks and better prepare our response to disasters. Alexandre Mérillat Nath Anh Truong | 10/3/2020 | 15
Questions ? Thank you for your attention !
- What is the cascading effect
- Productively efficient vs allocatively efficient
- Allocative efficiency
- C b a d
- Productively efficient vs allocatively efficient
- Allocative efficiency vs productive efficiency
- Koncepcja ecr
- Efficient consumer response
- Ecr efficient consumer response
- Natural and forced response
- Natural response circuit
- A subsequent
- Perbedaan pohon kinerja dan cascading
- Fractional cascading
- Cascading dynamic gates
- Pneumatic sequence
- Strategy map sample